wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Some more snow sneaks into the area on Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Pivitol has their pay items for the public until further notice...ie euro kuchie etc... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 Euro about to pop a monster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 @TugHillMatt Euro takes the climo storm track, would be huge event for Central NY but we all cash in 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro about to pop a monster? Lol 939mb.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Lol 939mb.. Would love to be on Mt Washington as that thing goes by. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 GEFS for first event are pretty NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Would love to be on Mt Washington as that thing goes by. Sureee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Sureee 200 mph winds. You can follow their observatory on instagram, some awesome stuff up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lol 939mb.. Don't see that every day...could you imagine?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Would love to be on Mt Washington as that thing goes by. No you wouldn’t. You’d be blown into western Maine lmao. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Snow to Myrtle Beach!!!! Weeeeeeee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: No you wouldn’t. You’d be blown into western Maine lmao. exactly haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 Snow potential for rest of March after this weekend, actually cold enough for lake effect, but diurnal effects would play into it. But all systems go if we can get a nighttime event going. Why couldn't we have gotten this pattern in December? The LES potential would have been insane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: @TugHillMatt Euro takes the climo storm track, would be huge event for Central NY but we all cash in Thanks for sharing that beautiful look. Please lock it in! P.S. More than half of that actually comes from the event early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Sunday night...the cold front noted above should either by just about overhead by nightfall or quickly moving east through WNY and CNY. Dry and cooler air will follow along with diminishing winds. However, the next system will also be rapidly approaching, with a renewed chance for precipitation by daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Slowly gaining forecast confidence with the next system for the start next week as latest model guidance packages are trending toward more of a consensus. Current thinking with this system is the stalled frontal boundary from the previous low, will stall southeast of the region (somewhere between the Catskill Mountains and the Eastern Seaboard). As noted in previous scenarios,this set up would support an all snow scenario however precipitation type still remains of question at this time. Now, arrival time of the cold air will become the deciding factor of precipitation type. This being said, while some discrepancies continue to lie between the different model guidance packages the overall trend has the cold air starting to arrive Monday morning across the northern portions of the area. Cold air will continue to advect southward across the region throughout the rest of the day Monday and Monday Night. What this boils down to, is a mishmash of precipitation types, with mainly snow across the North Country, a mix of snow and rain across most of the CWA, and plain rain across the Southern Tier through out the daytime Monday. Then, with the system sliding by to the southeast of the region and as nightfall with cold air continuing to advect in all precipitation will switch over to be just snow Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 These are actually free all the time, who would of known lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: These are actually free all the time, who would of known lol Thats a nice track. Provides a bit of north wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 GFS 18z pretty much has nothing on Monday now, similar to the icon.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 ICON would be better. Lol. Pretty much worse every run. Let’s see what The EURO comes up with. But obviously trending worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 be careful of those LR gfs runs bringing the hammer of cold. GFS in LR has a bad cold bias right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: be careful of those LR gfs runs bringing the hammer of cold. GFS in LR has a bad cold bias right now. Maybe but the epo is going to stay negative and we might actually get help from the AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe but the epo is going to stay negative and we might actually get help from the AO. I’m not saying no cold, more like cold comes but not as deep or lasts as long would be my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Not bad for this subforum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 11 hours ago, tombo82685 said: be careful of those LR gfs runs bringing the hammer of cold. GFS in LR has a bad cold bias right now. Yes but isn’t the EPS doubling down as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Next system comes through on Monday. Sfc-H85 wave rides along the now stalled out frontal boundary that comes through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night. Heaviest QPF currently projected Southern Tier to Finger Lakes (greatest chances here for over 0.75 inch). Ptype remains a challenge with waves passing across region and our area right on edge of rain/snow line. Still seems best chances for mainly rain will be along NY/PA state line Monday afternoon while best chances for ptype remaining mainly snow the whole event will be across North Country. Plenty of wiggle room in between these areas with isothermal profile aloft. Difference of only a degree or two at the sfc will make big difference. Forecast soundings and blended model probabilities point to mainly a rain versus snow issue instead of much freezing rain or sleet. In terms of snow amounts, could see several inches of wet snow where ptype remains snow on northern edge of the heavier precip shield. Then, even as initial system is exiting Monday evening with sfc low heading off Mid Atlantic, there are signs of secondary wave sliding across (varying extent/intensity in the models) as northern stream shortwave trough arrives that would bring another period of snow. Increased pops some late Monday night into Tuesday, but probably not enough if these trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Picked up a surprise inch of translucent fluff overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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