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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It was called King Euro for a long time, until the early 2010s when an upgrade messed it up seemingly.  

I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. 
I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. 

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10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. 
I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. 

God storm of century was so long ago. Thanks for making me feel old. Lol

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19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. 
I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. 

Same for hurricane/Superstorm sandy..

The European model earned particular fame in 2012 when it accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy would make a hard turn into the northeast coast of the United States before the American model. .

XVIWG22MZVCH3ATQHRKIYXURBA (1).gif

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21 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

@Syrmax and @CNY_WX, what do you think our odds are that the grass will be completely covered in this area by next weekend? I actually considered starting a poll on this. lol

 

20 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Completely covered?  Blade tips showing? 33%.

 

20 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

10:1 with an over/under of 1 1/2 inches. 

Recalculating... :lmao:

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4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

To be fair it’s about 5 miles north but the very heaviest accumulation will be airport or just south to Lancaster, Depew, Blasdell, Hamburg…I think the north areas are between 6-18” (N-S) with 24”+ in the areas I identified. 

Yeah, I don’t think this is going to break the 20 year LES blockbuster drought for downtown through the north towns. I also have a bad feeling about winds in the first part of the storm - we have seen high winds and sheer break up bands in the city.

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1 minute ago, WNash said:

Yeah, I don’t think this is going to break the 20 year LES blockbuster drought for downtown through the north towns. I also have a bad feeling about winds in the first part of the storm - we have seen high winds and sheer break up bands in the city.

It’s not high winds. Not even advisory type winds. Just some gusts up to 40. That’s 10 to 20mph winds sustained. Nothing out of the ordinary. Plus why is everyone so negative about this event? Yes we’ve been burned, it’s the weather. Just look at the actual features as they are being uncovered and go from there. A 240 vector is dead center metro Buffalo, that’s the wind vector the NWS is seeing, not any of us. We’re speculating at best. 

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32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Same for hurricane/Superstorm sandy..

The European model earned particular fame in 2012 when it accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy would make a hard turn into the northeast coast of the United States before the American model. .

XVIWG22MZVCH3ATQHRKIYXURBA (1).gif

Wow Wolfie! Look at that! 216 hours out. 

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31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't think Snowlesscuse is going to win that Golden Snowball this year...

So, the rain and cold front passage next week is all we have left?  Will have to scour deep into the off hour runs of the JMA to keep hope alive for the next 2 weeks.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. 
I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. 

The 1993 triple-phase was showing on models at least 5 days out, maybe more. I distinctly remember being in the Met labs with my classmates drooling over those maps.

Interesting read for GFS upgrades recently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

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