tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Eps targeting i90 corridor for center of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 12z ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I really like the chance for enhancement with this storm. Long duration of ENE winds. Something to watch for. Which if you look at the LR globals they all show the Niagara Frontier with the least amount of QPF…this SHOULD be the exact opposite with those wind trajectories 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z ensembles Those look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Those look solid. Indeed. Thruway, Capital District, southern ADK, eastern Catskills look like the consensus sweet spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits.. I'm looking at the positive look of something. Give me a break. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits.. Wolfie you’re the guru of NWS text posts…any idea where/why the NWS stated a lull in precip for Thursday night??? Do they have a secret model or are they just losing it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wolfie you’re the guru of NWS text posts…any idea where/why the NWS stated a lull in precip for Thursday night??? Do they have a secret model or are they just losing it??? Read like they're thinking maybe dryslot... a la.... the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Yeah that's what I was thinking as well.. Also the transfer of energy from the primary to the coastal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Here is the afternoon discussion.. Thursday night...a southern stream system will become a bit better organized with the sfc low tracking northeast across Kentucky and Tennessee. Meanwhile...a secondary coastal low will begin to form off the Carolinas which overtime becomes the main sfc low that steams up the coast during the day Friday. Right now...thermal profiles suggest that this will primarily be an all snow event. However...guidance does show a warm layer between 925-850 hPa getting precariously close to the NY/PA boarder on Friday. It won`t be out the realm of possibilities to see a mix...if enough warm air sneaks in aloft. That said...the other concern is the track of the 850H low which isn`t ideal. Initially that won`t inhibit a period of accumulating snow on Thursday night but there could be a period of very light precipitation (little accumulation) or even a lull. Still way too early too get locked into this scenario. Confidence is growing that we will potentially see some accumulating snows...but not enough to lock onto any given solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Both NWS offices chose to get into the nitty gritty details and "what could go wrong" (lol) rather than just "Models look pretty clear that there will be a good system." Ah, well..Sunday crews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 You can see it somewhat on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 This has a good potential to be a solid hit for almost all of us. Would be nice for a change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BGM 12/18z NBM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BGM Interesting, as it's NOT 5+ days out. It is 3 to 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12/18z NBM Yikes. Sizeable shift north. No more, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting, as it's NOT 5+ days out. It is 3 to 4 days. Yeah start time Thur evening, so 4-4.25 days. Thought they'd add this storm to the HWO with the afternoon update, but they left it out. Think they are focusing on the mid week storm moreso for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah start time Thur evening, so 4-4.25 days. Thought they'd add this storm to the HWO with the afternoon update, but they left it out. Think they are focusing on the mid week storm moreso for now. I did too. But I feel BGM is an extremely conservative office, so am not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12/18z NBM I like that shift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm looking at the positive look of something. Give me a break. Positive? ... I'm up to 60.1" of snow for the season. If GooFuS or CMC pan out we have a shot at getting near last year's totals (78") in the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Positive? ... I'm up to 60.1" of snow for the season. If GooFuS or CMC pan out we have a shot at getting near last year's totals (78") in the next 10 days? Yes, as in I'm looking at the positive aspects of the potentials with the system and perhaps future systems afterwards. Never mind. I wasn't saying I was trying to find "a" positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes, as in I'm looking at the positive aspects of the potentials with the system and perhaps future systems afterwards. Never mind. I wasn't saying I was trying to find "a" positive. How about.. increasing sun angle starts to melt the ice on my pool cover? Too soon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: How about.. increasing sun angle starts to melt the ice on my pool cover? Too soon? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I had to do a double take, that looks like my pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I had to do a double take, that looks like my pool. Are those your water vehicles too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Are those your water vehicles too? Gonna tread carefully here...I must get a hot dog floatie! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Gonna tread carefully here...I must get a hot dog floatie! Multi-functional. Float on it in the pool, sled on it in the winter, and sit on it and Ice fish in your pool next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 18z GFS holds serve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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