wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, CNY_WX said: I’m not disagreeing that we can’t get big snowstorms even into early April. What I’m saying is that even if you get a foot of snow on March 20 the temperature within a day is usually in the 40s and that snowfall is running into the sewers. Ok agreed. Retention is bad. But in terms of accumulation not so much. One you get close to April then things go south quick if you have no elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Kuchera for the people. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Kuchera for the people. Its what the people demand. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Seems like gfs is reverting back to its old ways of making everything so progressive in medium range with blasting cold air to the coast. Then to only correct to other models once we get inside 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Can we keep a low in pa for once so no one mixes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Canadian brings a mix into Southern tier but looks like a solid storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Ukmet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Also keep in mind these overrunning systems love to tick north inside 3 days. Remember the one back in early February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Canadian brings a mix into Southern tier but looks like a solid storm Yeah just for a short time in the central southern tier. The 12z gfs did as well but both are mainly snow and around 6 along the PA border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I don't like that jut north on the Canadian. Looks too close to what the Euro had been showing the past few days. The GFS moved the low slightly north and look how much more mixing gets into Southern NY. It just seems if mixing makes it any past the border, it FLOODS in the whole way to the Lake Plain. The GFS had room for northward movement. The rest don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I don't like that jut north on the Canadian. Looks too close to what the Euro had been showing the past few days. The GFS moved the low slightly north and look how much more mixing gets into Southern NY. It just seems if mixing makes it any past the border, it FLOODS in the whole way to the Lake Plain. The GFS had room for northward movement. The rest don't. 12z Geps and Gefs shifted a little north but not a lot. Still solid from the northern tier of PA north. I wouldnt worry about north central NY too much. The thruway corridor might be the jackpot for this one. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Morning disco A storm system will track northeast from the Tennessee Valley to New England from Thursday night through Friday night. As this system tracks northeast, a secondary coastal low will develop near the NY/NJ coast. The initial storm tracking inland, depending on model guidance is generally somewhere between Buffalo and NYC. While most of the guidance has gone with the eastward trend, making snow more likely for the area, the rest of the guidance has also gone a bit more eastward, resulting in some of the better precip amounts more east of the WNY area. If the storm track does stay on this eastward trend, precip., mostly in the form of snow should be light, but steady for far WNY. Snow amounts would increase to the east, before mixing with rain/sleet/freezing rain, depending on storm track and any warmer layers within the storm. Currently the best chance for precip., regardless of type, looks like from late Thursday night into Friday evening. Behind the passing system for Thursday into late Friday, cold air advection will lower 850H temps to around -20C, prompting some lake enhanced first right behind the storm, and then lake effect. Lake effect behind the passing storm looks limited as of now, as conditions will be lacking for some better development off the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I really like the chance for enhancement with this storm. Long duration of ENE winds. Something to watch for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z Geps shifted a little north but not a lot. Still solid from the northern tier of PA north. I wouldnt worry about north central NY too much. The thruway corridor might be the jackpot for this one. Thanks. After being burned so many times, it's hard to NOT look for "what could go wrong." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 euro looks a bit warmer than 0z, but not a ton of difference. Def a bit wetter down towards bgm. Could be decent thump to ice there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Yeah a later transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Solid run either way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 generally looks like a nice 4-8 on models right now across the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 There's ALWAYS one that shows Syracuse getting the shaft compared to everybody else around it... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: There's ALWAYS one that shows Syracuse getting the shaft compared to everybody else around it... lol First thing I noticed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, CNY_WX said: First thing I noticed. It's unbelievable...and as we have seen almost every time, the lowest amount has been the right one for here lately. So, as of today, 5 inches it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 View of Whiteface across the Ausable River valley during a hike this morning. If you zoom way in you can see Buf Weather hiking at about 4,120 feet… 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5” is a decent little storm. Maybe try and lower your expectations. Besides, it’s one model out of several. Only 24 more model runs to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: View of Whiteface across the Ausable River valley during a hike this morning. If you zoom way in you can see Buf Weather hiking at about 4,120 feet… Looks like he’s wearing shorts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Models look solid in the LR.. Maybe something to watch at the end of month.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Gotta agree with Tombo, I’d add another 25 miles to the final mix line. They always sneak a bit further north than modeled. Couple days before we have a handle on it. But these models have been scary good. I wouldn’t be surprised if what we see today is ultimately how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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