BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yes I have, since DP left full time the others fir the most part are hacks…I guess I just keep thinking it’ll change…nope Cejka, santos and mentkowski are the only half way decent ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cejka, santos and mentkowski are the only half way decent ones. While I agree about Mentkowski, I feel the other 2 are married to their in-house model too often and won’t go by other guidance…I remember we had this exact talk last year during a similar event that their models were a good 15-20 miles too far south with placement of that band…and they did t deviate even while it was ripping up here. It constantly wanted to shift the band south seemingly by the hour. I feel that conservative nature hurts them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Welp, I'm back even though the mods have somewhat soured this forum (for me at least). That said, I can't miss out on the first truly chaseable event of the year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Well the Euro sure as shit won’t be the GFS. Maybe a bit more East but it’s got a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: While I agree about Mentkowski, I feel the other 2 are married to their in-house model too often and won’t go by other guidance…I remember we had this exact talk last year during a similar event that their models were a good 15-20 miles too far south with placement of that band…and they did t deviate even while it was ripping up here. It constantly wanted to shift the band south seemingly by the hour. I feel that conservative nature hurts them. Do we actually believe that local tv stations have in-house models? There is no way some broadcast meteorologist is writing code and inputting data that is going to be better than NCEP. It takes millions of dollars and thousands of man hours to build a weather model. When they say they use in-house models it means they put their stations name on a off run of the hi res NAM. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 When the watch set my phone off… 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cejka, santos and mentkowski are the only half way decent ones. I went to school with Mentkowski. I think we were the biggest Met class to graduate from OSU at the time. 12 of us nerds. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Do we actually believe that local tv stations have in-house models? There is no way some broadcast meteorologist is writing code and inputting data that is going to be better than NCEP. It takes millions of dollars and thousands of man hours to build a weather model. When they say they use in-house models it means they put their stations name on a off run of the hi res NAM. Too bad they couldn't incorporate some AI into the developing process... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 GEM and Euro have WSW flow for majority of event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GEM and Euro have WSW flow for majority of event. So i guess it comes down to which model is right…if the GFS is right then it’s epic, if the euro is correct it’s less epic but the area sees a synoptic snow event. Two VERY different camps right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: I went to school with Mentkowski. So did i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Too bad they couldn't incorporate some AI into the developing process... Did you go to NTHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Did you go to NTHS I did, I graduated with his sister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: I did, I graduated with his sister. I graduated ‘93. I believe we had this conversation once before. I grew up in Wurlitzer park. Aaron and I were in the varsity soccer team for three years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So did i 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Did you go to NTHS I meant college. I went to HS at RL Thomas in Webster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: I meant college. I went to HS at RL Thomas in Webster. Ahhh yes he went to SUNY Oswego…did you also study Meteorology there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro caved. This winter….Good luck Buffalo! Looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Well the Euro sure as shit won’t be the GFS. Maybe a bit more East but it’s got a storm. You're right, but that's a substantial shift SE by at least 100-200 miles in mslp track (Northern WV on 0z, Southern VA on 12z). Barely scrapes BGM to ALB. Hopefully the EPS won't shit the bed too badly. Either way there is still plenty of time for it to shift back W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Ahhh yes he went to SUNY Oswego…did you also study Meteorology there? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 @Syrmax and @CNY_WX Not even the lake can save us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 EPS is noticeably E but not horrible when compared to the other 12z runs. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 All the synoptic storms that were modeled went to ****. I was counting on at least one of them hitting. Still potential for central/eastern NYers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: EPS is noticeably E but not horrible when compared to the other 12z runs. Still time. I’m happy to see it “too far East” right now. That’s gives us some breathing room for the last minute NW push….I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Monday teusday looks interesting for rochester to syracuse for lake snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: EPS is noticeably E but not horrible when compared to the other 12z runs. Still time. Still a couple hits. Who knows? With La Niña it’s going to be hard to get a nor’easter I would think. Anyone know what’s making this flatter? Is it the placement of the HP over the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Got to admit, the GFS has been a lot better than the EURO for a while now. Remember the years the EURO was like some kind off infallible god? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Got to admit, the GFS has been a lot better than the EURO for a while now. Remember the years the EURO was like some kind off infallible god? Ever since it went through the upgrade it has performed better this year for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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