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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Expect a burst of lake enhanced snow with the clipper cold front
early to mid morning. A band of heavy lake effect snow will then
develop by late morning across the Tug Hill Plateau. This band of
snow will drift slowly south across the Tug from late morning
through mid afternoon, becoming quite heavy with 2-3"/hr snow fall
rates likely. Late this afternoon the band will move south across
Oswego County and weaken as boundary layer flow veers more
northwesterly. Total accumulations will likely reach 8-12" across
the Tug Hill Plateau, with 3-6" for some of the surrounding lower
elevations.

Some lake effect snow will persist tonight southeast of Lake
Ontario, but in a weaker state as inversion heights fall and
moisture decreases. Expect 2-3" across portions of Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties, and 1-2 inches near the lakeshore in
Monroe County. What remains of the lake effect will drift back over
the lake and end by Sunday morning.
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Colder air settles into the area for a couple days until the next
system with decent timing unison in model guidance approaches for
Thursday night and Friday. The ECMWF is notably warmer than other
global model solutions, and it is really the only solution that
brings up enough warm air to have a changeover to rain, however it`s
rarely a good idea to fully discount the ECMWF in the extended.
Thus, while the forecast favors colder solutions for the moment, the
numbers were tempered a bit to account for the warmer ECMWF.
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35 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How high did winds get?

Winds were strong pre front 40-45 but really ramped up inside the squall line.  Car was violently shaking for a few minutes had to be 55-60 gusts. Crazy how fast the winds subsided to just a breeze on the backside of the front.  Got at least 4 thundersnow strikes.

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

Arctic fronts never disappoint. I went old school and just sat without my phone or any radar updates for 25 mins and just enjoyed it out the windows. Nice start to this Saturday. 
 

Think this will be a interesting day. Lots of spin over Huron headed toward lake ontario. Almost like a meso low. With daytime heating from sun should make for a fun weather day.

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18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

A good 20 mins after it moves through. I don’t usually throw stones at those guys but good grief.  Lol. 

Yeah they really should have issued a warning for Buffalo area.  I was down there waiting to intercept it and it caught me off guard, only image people out driving unaware.  

 

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