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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

First map..

Not sure why they started it at 7 am this morning lol

StormTotalSnowWeb (43).jpg

Looks about right but would bump those totals around Buffalo a little. I'll be driving through that orange tomorrow. Going to pull off that exit to the northeast of Pulaski and find a diner. Any suggestions? :lol:

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What time you going? I might be game to wake up early and chase with you. I can bring my drone. 

Thinking maybe 5-6am as that looks to be peak winds and so I can be at my spot before the squall rolls in.  Planning to setup at Erie Basin Marina (as long as the city doesn’t close the parkway).  Little shore ice but then open water until you hit the boom.  Just need to make sure the timing on this doesn’t move up sooner again.

76597EF6-9C3A-45EB-A8DF-D86328B4677F.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Really interesting.  Thanks for the info!

I've driven down to Niagara a couple of times over the past two months and have been surprised by the lack of even a thin ice bridge, despite it having been the coldest January/February period since 2015. Perhaps it's due to December having been so mild? 

As discussed in earlier posts last month, I imagine the reason we don't see massive ice bridges like those seen in photographs from the 19th century and first half of the 20th is at least in part due to the existence of the ice boom since the 1950s.

The River ice flow came to an abrupt stop about 500 yards from the lake.  Rather interesting it couldn’t make that final push out considering the lake channel was ice free.  There is now a jam frozen in place from the mouth of the River all the way back to the South Park lift bridge.  

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

The River ice flow came to an abrupt stop about 500 yards from the lake.  Rather interesting it couldn’t make that final push out considering the lake channel was ice free.  There is now a jam frozen in place from the mouth of the River all the way back to the South Park lift bridge.  

9132F60A-E35B-4F61-AB91-B91C62FBE0C9.jpeg

484CCE7C-B5E0-4BBA-928A-C28D38DBFE03.jpeg

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4D51E2CA-5C31-46BB-B4B9-A0996646EC40.jpeg

You really think the winds will break that? Temps are going to be quite cold, I think that stays in place. 

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You really think the winds will break that? Temps are going to be quite cold, I think that stays in place. 

Yeah I’m not expecting the River Ice to go anywhere.  I’m going down to see the Lake ice once the Seiche rises to around 4-5’ the lake level will be above the booms max height causing it to submerge and then the ice will get pushed over top of it and start to rapidly fill into the Niagara River.  

FD0AD1BE-A248-4CCE-B1A6-F779E2919D79.png

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Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 230 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... *

WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding possible along with the potential for ice shoves. *

WHERE...Erie and Chautauqua counties. *

WHEN...From 1 AM EST Saturday through Saturday morning. *

IMPACTS...Despite the presence of ice floes on eastern Lake Erie, strong southwest winds are expected to shift ice around which could lead to erratic water level rises at the eastern end of Lake Erie. There is a potential of localized ice shoves as well. In addition, shoreline areas free of ice could experience lakeshore flooding. This includes along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor and Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and other flood prone locations. Very high wave action where little shoreline ice is present may also result in significant shoreline erosion.

 

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