tim123 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Big fatties falling in roc this am. Looks amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Atleast in my mind this storm will end up as a win in my book. Will probally end up near half a foot on i90 from southern erie County to rochester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Whatever grass was exposed is just about covered up again. Hoping for several inches today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Best dendrites I have seen from any synoptic system this season are falling this morning. Let 'er rip! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Atleast in my mind this storm will end up as a win in my book. Will probally end up near half a foot on i90 from southern erie County to rochester. Agreed. Pushing 4" here already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Looks like a nice connection to gb is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Snowing lightly right now, maybe a half inch down so far. 21 degrees, everything is frozen solid. Just patches of snowpack left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Pushing 4/5” here. Great back end. Mod-Hvy right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Just got super lucky with my timing today on several occasions. Flows were very strong so while we did see small pockets of flooding the ice kept moving for the most part. Was trying to setup a time lapse up at Silo City and RiverWorks but was just to dark. Filled up so fast once the ice started piling in. Had better lighting at canal side but I was out of energy at that point and just packed it in. This would have been an awesome view of the entire flow rushing out into the Lake. There’s a low foggy haze over the skyline and above the ice just adds to the feel of it! I wonder if any of this ice will make its way over the falls to start creating an ice bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Tomorrow should be interesting. Very windy squalls. Mid week looks potentially icy then big snow next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 After almost 2" of rain picked up more snow than I thought 3.5" of slush when I measured this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 KBUF was spot on in their 3-5" call Niagara county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Gotta get props to KBUF for this event. They called the very little freezing rain. It transitioned to sleet quickly and snowfall amounts were spot on. Great forecast. The models spitting out FZA were all wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Snowing decent attm. One of those rare times there are actually decent dendrites. 1" new snow. I have to wait for my rain gauge to thaw as its a block of ice so no idea on total qpf attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Pretty strong clipper for tomorrow with lake enhancement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I wonder if any of this ice will make its way over the falls to start creating an ice bridge? If the ice made it out of the Buffalo River last night then it’s on its way over today. Tomorrow morning will also be interesting as we look at have a short window of WSW winds gusting over 50mph which will very likely cause the lake level to rise above the height of the boom and we could see a violent ice flow exit the lake into the upper Niagara River for a few hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I have a little under 3" with beautiful dendrites falling.. Forecast was less than an inch lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty strong clipper for tomorrow with lake enhancement Yeah has a nice look. Planning to setup for a few hours tomorrow morning either along the lake or Niagara River. Looks like a nasty squall line could roll through to start and then a couple hour window of 50+mph gusts. Not sure if it’ll be enough to create an “ice tsunami” but only one way to find out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah has a nice look. Planning to setup for a few hours tomorrow morning either along the lake or Niagara River. Looks like a nasty squall line could roll through to start and then a couple hour window of 50+mph gusts. Not sure if it’ll be enough to create an “ice tsunami” but only one way to find out! Should be a ton of blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I have a little under 3" with beautiful dendrites falling.. Forecast was less than an inch lol What time you think will have the best band going across tug tomorrow? Want to time it best I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Our attention then turns to a rather potent clipper system, which will move from the Upper Great Lakes this evening to the Ottawa Valley by Saturday, with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes early Saturday morning. The clipper cold front will produce a burst of snow showers and possibly snow squalls with its passage. The clipper cold front will become lake enhanced northeast and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, producing a few inches of accumulation across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight and early Saturday. Cold air will quickly deepen behind the cold front, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to around 10K feet over Lake Ontario with favorably deep cold air and moisture. The latest model guidance holds flow westerly over Lake Ontario for roughly 6 hours on Saturday. Given the favorable thermodynamics and convergence down the long axis of Lake Ontario, expect a band of heavy lake effect snow to develop. The band will briefly cross Jefferson County including Watertown in the morning, then focus on the central Tug Hill from mid to late morning through late afternoon before moving south across Oswego County and weakening by early evening. CIPS analogs, pattern recognition, and high-res guidance suggests the potential for warning criteria snow amounts on the Tug Hill Saturday. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch for lake effect snow has been issued east of Lake Ontario. The clipper will also produce strong wind gusts Saturday. Winds will peak near the cold frontal passage over and northeast of Lake Erie Saturday morning, with gusts of 45+ knots possible. Forecast soundings show enough wind aloft to potentially support a brief period of low end warning criteria gusts across Western NY, but the fact that the low begins to fill as it passes our longitude suggests an advisory event. Regardless, it will be very windy and the combination of a few inches of snow and strong winds will produce extensive blowing snow. It will stay windy through the afternoon, but gusts will come down to around 35 knots or so areawide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: What time you think will have the best band going across tug tomorrow? Want to time it best I can. According to the 3k early tomorrow afternoon(1-3pm) but it's a short window before it drops south.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Looks like about 1.5- 2” overnight. Little more than 1” I was expecting but generally in that 1-3 zone. 4 otg temp 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4.4” the final tally at home in Derby. More than expected tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: According to the 3k early tomorrow afternoon(1-3pm) but it's a short window before it drops south.. NWS talking about issuing warnings I think there will be a brief timeframe of really heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NWS talking about issuing warnings I think there will be a brief timeframe of really heavy snow. So a short-lived potent lake band with arctic front pushing through with lots of wind. Should be a fun 2" or so. Hoping we can get some low-level 25:1 South Shore action after the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Well at least for 1 run the GFS came south with the next system, light rain -mix verbatim.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Streamers looking pretty healthy on sat: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well at least for 1 run the GFS came south with the next system, light rain -mix verbatim.. Follow up system would make everyone happy lol State wide snowstorm but still to far out to get excited, obviously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, vortmax said: So a short-lived potent lake band with arctic front pushing through with lots of wind. Should be a fun 2" or so. Hoping we can get some low-level 25:1 South Shore action after the front. Lots of wind as well. Not best set up for south shore because of that wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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