rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Euro moved the heavy snow axis 50 miles NW as compared to 6z and 75 miles compared to 0z. Big adjustment this late in the game. We all knew it was coming. I just don’t buy that it’s still the king. Maybe with 500 mb verification but that’s a useless parameter. Especially short term. Throw down your crown! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: What a great afternoon outside! Was out along the River hunting for the Cotter but couldn’t find it. People jogging down on the waterfront in shorts… Officially a THAW now! Just great! Did you slip and hit your head? Lol. Enjoy. Matt and I will grump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Temperatures in the mid 40s but dew points below freezing will minimize melting today. Aiding the melt is a fairly strong wind to disperse that layer of cold air just above the snow. Also adding to snow melt is the ever increasing strength of insolation. Tomorrow is going to be a disaster for our snowpack with rain and higher dew points and temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Majority of these look solid for WNY but we don't know how much sleet is included as snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Up 30° since midnight, wind starting to whip as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Low probs 4"+ for WNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Don't know if it's the low dewpoints or what but the snowpack here isn't budging. Fully expect to be making snowballs on the 4th of July this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Majority of these look solid for WNY but we don't know how much sleet is included as snow.. These do really wacky things in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 At least it’s fun to watch. Maybe it comes down to the wire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 52 and sunny. Running outside season is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 52 and sunny. Running outside season is back. Do it! Do the shorts! Pleeeez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Do it! Do the shorts! Pleeeez 52 and sunny is definitely shorts weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Latest NAM increased the FZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 I'll be above 4k feet on Sunday I wonder if this storm that give us rain will produce snow up there? Anyone got the soundings to see the freezing level up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest NAM increased the FZR Would be some problems if that came to fruition. Fully not expecting even close to that much. Also gotta think these models just spit out total QPF with rain falling above the surface but temps at or below freezing. With runoff and the amount of time it takes for ice to accrete I don’t see this being anywhere even close to right, although it is interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Would be some problems if that came to fruition. Fully not expecting even close to that much. Also gotta think these models just spit out total QPF with rain falling above the surface but temps at or below freezing. With runoff and the amount of time it takes for ice to accrete I don’t see this being anywhere even close to right, although it is interesting to watch. agreed. I'm thinking mainly rain and then 1-2" of sleet/snow on backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: agreed. I'm thinking mainly rain and then 1-2" of sleet/snow on backside Buffalo has a big range in the immediate WNY area. Most likely comes down to miles tomorrow night in the Buffalo Metro. Buffalo 1" while Niagara Falls 3-5" Niagara Falls-Lewiston-Youngstown might sneak out an actual winter storm with this. Assuming a tiny shift could put them in 4-6" over a 6 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Buffalo has a big range in the immediate WNY area. Most likely comes down to miles tomorrow night in the Buffalo Metro. Buffalo 1" while Niagara Falls 3-5" Yep. Right now I think that’s a good call. Gonna be tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Winter Returns... Cold air advection ramps up the second half of Thursday and temperatures dramatically drop below freezing. There will likely be a 1-3 hour period of sleet and freezing rain as rain changes to snow across the region. Then accumulating snowfall is expected into Friday. Ice accumulations of a trace to a tenth of an inch possible. Snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches possible in Niagara county and 2 to 4 inches possible along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the northern Tug Hill region. Elsewhere, 1-2 inches possible. Very cold with flash freeze conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. Low temperatures will fall to the teens to low 20s and wind chill values in the single digits Friday morning. Winter Weather Headlines are possible Thursday night into Friday for wintry conditions across western and north central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Glad I was able to go skiing last night. Season might be over. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This period will be dominated by a split...Pacific based flow that will support above normal temperatures through the period. This will especially be the case during the daylight hours when the mercury will average a solid 5 to 10 degrees above typical late Feb normals. The split flow will be highlighted by another potentially significant rain maker that will originate in the southern branch of the unphased jets. Fortunately...broad, flat ridging over the eastern conus should all but guarantee fair dry weather to start this period Sunday and Monday. By Monday night through...energy ejecting out the longwave trough over the western half of the country will promote cyclogenesis within the broad southwest flow over the Ohio valley. As we the case with the initial uncertainty with our current storm system...the various deterministic models are out of step with the amount of organization and also with the timing of this next sfc wave that could produce another significant round of rain over our region on Tuesday. Expansive high pressure over the northern plains Tuesday night should then build across the Great Lakes region for Wednesday with only spotty leftover rain and wet snow showers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Saturday...cold front quickly crosses the area with a brief uptick in snow showers activity as CAA ramps up across the region. There will also be some accumulating lake snows to contend with as over lake instability increases with 850 hPa temps falling to -17C/-19C. BUFKIT profiles show equilibriums levels climbing to near 12k feet and sufficient moisture extending through the DGZ. That said...might see some decent accumulations east of Lake Ontario. Will need to keep an eye on this potential but it`s only a brief window too see accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Flood threat tomorrow evening through Friday morning looking pretty decent. Along with the Cotter ice breaking on the Buffalo River the Underwater Team was out cutting the triangles into Caz Creek. The slants are packed with ice already so once things start flowing upstream expect to see issues in the normal problem areas. Snowpack is extremely ripe with a high water content still in the 2-4” range. 1-2” of rain possible with a rapid melt of the remaining snow pack and things should get rather interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Latest GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Latest GFS So northern Erie gets an ice storm, Niagara county gets warning level snow…makes sense 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z GFS ON TOP12z on bottom Basically I need 10 more miles to be into a snowstorm (on paper anyway). Keeping my attention for another 6 hours… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 This is almost all sleet. But that heavy snow just over the lake is beautiful. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 This looks fun next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: This looks fun next week lol Looks like Wisconsin and Michigan get buried and a mess for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This looks fun next week lol Better scenario with HP over Ontario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So northern Erie gets an ice storm, Niagara county gets warning level snow…makes sense 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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