wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 We'll see if it continues.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I’m unreasonably excited for the 18z EURO. I’ve got this bug bad! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We'll see if it continues.. It was a pretty big jump from 12Z to 18Z. Now that things are being sampled, maybe we can keep going SE? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Can anyone think of the last synoptic storm where it actually went in our favor with a list minute big shift Southeast and colder? Big...as in rain was expected, and instead there was a snowstorm? In late March 2020, I remember we were supposed to only have like an inch of slop here and we instead had over 6 inches of heavy, wet snow that accumulated during the heat of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Can anyone think of the last synoptic storm where it actually went in our favor with a list minute big shift Southeast and colder? Big...as in rain was expected, and instead there was a snowstorm? In late March 2020, I remember we were supposed to only have like an inch of slop here and we instead had over 6 inches of heavy, wet snow that accumulated during the heat of the day. The last storm was kind of like that. But it happened much earlier. But our SE members even got in on it at the end (or was that 2 ago?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: The last storm was kind of like that. But it happened much earlier. But our SE members even got in on it at the end (or was that 2 ago?) Yeah, it looked like they weren't going to get much snow but the multiple waves helped them out, with that last wave giving them 3 to 6 inches. We don't have that benefit here. The cold air sector seemed larger (and slower moving?) with that one as well, with a wider area of sleet and freezing rain. These further South and east runs are showing a bit more of that mix area. The latest GFS really gets that mixing close to CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, it looked like they weren't going to get much snow but the multiple waves helped them out, with that last wave giving them 3 to 6 inches. We don't have that benefit here. The cold air sector seemed larger (and slower moving?) with that one as well, with a wider area of sleet and freezing rain. These further South and east runs are showing a bit more of that mix area. The latest GFS really gets that mixing close to CNY. We are missing a powerhouse HP. The last one was like 1043 and biased east compared to this one. We need to rely on a weaker, flatter LP. The strip of good snow is very narrow with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 End of next week into the first week of March looks fun on this recent run... Check out Canada. lol Kuchie kuchie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: End of next week into the first week of March looks fun on this recent run... Check out Canada. lol Kuchie kuchie Look at that elevation pattern! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Guess who's headed to Indian Lake this weekend to snowmobile...Bless my soul folks and pray that this thing keeps coming south.I love you all and I have been creeping and working hard Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: Guess who's headed to Indian Lake this weekend to snowmobile... Bless my soul folks and pray that this thing keeps coming south. I love you all and I have been creeping and working hard Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Can you turn it into a transformer that has ice skates, floating innertubes, and mud wheels on it for a variety of conditions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: End of next week into the first week of March looks fun on this recent run... Check out Canada. lol Kuchie kuchie Dear god Johnson what is that flying… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Can you turn it into a transformer that has ice skates, floating innertubes, and mud wheels on it for a variety of conditions? Cool mike you are now Optimus mike going forward 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 52 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: End of next week into the first week of March looks fun on this recent run... Check out Canada. lol Kuchie kuchie Road trip to Canada, Montreal or Ottawa, for one of these storms could be cool. But muh, covid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 EURO actually ticked NW. it mostly held. But not what we needed…Niagara Falls still gets it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Bunch of nice hits on EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 EPS is actually VERY bullish on the BUF/IAG/ROC corridor. Hope lives for another six hours. Relies on later development of the low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 We were cruising tonight. Packed powder with some icy spots. Wife was not a fan of the conditions. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We were cruising tonight. Packed powder with some icy spots. Wife was not a fan of the conditions. Beat me by 3 mph! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: EPS is actually VERY bullish on the BUF/IAG/ROC corridor. Hope lives for another six hours. Relies on later development of the low. Sigh...any hope, whatsoever, for the outcasts of CNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I see the NAM is coming in a bit further south again. Good sign for you WNY guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Great looking clipper Winter blows lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Do these clippers think they can't cross the border into the US this year? Might catch Covid from a dirty American... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: EPS is actually VERY bullish on the BUF/IAG/ROC corridor. Hope lives for another six hours. Relies on later development of the low. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Can you post? I’m beginning to like far western NY for an advisory event 4-6” Thursday night. Appears the frontal wave is slowing down a bit allowing the front to move through further and changing the rain to snow sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 It’s gonna take a lot for this to come together. But 50% are hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just for entertainment. I really don’t expect a snowstorm. Maybe 20% chance for Rochester. 50% for IAG. But if this model was worth anything it screams snow. Some of the more respected models are getting problematic for ice with low level cold drawing off the lakes. Yuck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Getting a bit more nervous for some serious flooding potential. 1-2 inches of rain and temperatures near 50F. The winds should help obliterate the snow pack as well. The second part of the storm has me getting an ice storm so ideally the front slows down and we get more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I guess it's something lol Slight improvement, little more backside precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Fwiw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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