Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I have to agree for the most part, although I wouldn't want to experience a tornado - I'm a much bigger fan of winter severe weather as opposed to summer severe. Extremes are the way to go though. Ideally, I like at least one 12" snowfall per year, one "zero day" per winter, and one 95 degree day in the summer. I couldn't handle living in a place like Seattle or Vancouver. Not enough variance in the weather, and I really dislike cold rain in the winter. That’s the same as San Diego, phoenix ir even Miami. Having the “seasons” we enjoy bring variability and excitement. Living in one of those areas would be akin to living in Syracuse or some desolate, snowless area… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 All the models locked in with storm just across the border. EURO is still the closest (other than Ukmet). IDK. Wouldn’t take a ton to move it 50 miles. Not counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I have to agree for the most part, although I wouldn't want to experience a tornado - I'm a much bigger fan of winter severe weather as opposed to summer severe. Extremes are the way to go though. Ideally, I like at least one 12" snowfall per year, one "zero day" per winter, and one 95 degree day in the summer. I couldn't handle living in a place like Seattle or Vancouver. Not enough variance in the weather, and I really dislike cold rain in the winter. You are in for a treat! Gonna be some flooding at this rate. I can’t imagine there’s less than 3” in the Rochester snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 1976-1977 was the worst winter in Buffalos history with 200" of snow recorded at the airport, with much more south of the city. It also had the blizzard of 1977 which gave the city its name. 1976-77 0 0 0 0.2 31.3 60.7 68.3 22.7 13.5 2.2 0.5 0 199.4 Living in Little Falls at the time I could pick up WKBW AM at night I remember listening to their storm coverage for several days. The whole city of Buffalo was basically shut down and eventually the National Guard was called in to assist in snow removal. The air mass that caused the blizzard was preceded by a cold front. In that winter temperatures around freezing were considered warm and that morning Little Falls was around freezing while Buffalo on the other side of the front was already in the single digits. Little Falls received close to a half a foot of snow just with the frontal passage. It was an amazing winter and an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 13° with heavy snow here, shouldn't last that long, maybe a couple quick inches..The year of the transition band continues lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: All the models locked in with storm just across the border. EURO is still the closest (other than Ukmet). IDK. Wouldn’t take a ton to move it 50 miles. Not counting on it though. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the actually snow boundary usually ends up 25-50mi farther NW than the models and forecasts show it. I have been burned by that a few times this winter. Even though I “know” what’s going to happen, I still get my hopes up enough to be disappointed. Not trying to be negative, just trying to spare you the same disappointment! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Looking at the Salmon River cam on Earthcam it is snowing pretty good in Pulaski. Wolfie must be getting hit pretty good. The bad is moving south at pretty good rate and should be here within an hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the actually snow boundary usually ends up 25-50mi farther NW than the models and forecasts show it. I have been burned by that a few times this winter. Even though I “know” what’s going to happen, I still get my hopes up enough to be disappointed. Not trying to be negative, just trying to spare you the same disappointment! Totally agree. This one sailed a couple days ago. I always felt the GFS has a good handle on it. And yeah, I’d bet it moves 25-50 northwest as opposed to SE. I’ll still be watching it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Totally agree. This one sailed a couple days ago. I always felt the GFS has a good handle on it. And yeah, I’d bet it moves 25-50 northwest as opposed to SE. I’ll still be watching it though. Looks to be a Chicago to Toronto storm. GFS has been locked in for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Good. If it's going to go NW and miss us, move it as far NW as possible to limit pounding rains and any other effects from it. If it's not going to snow in the winter, it doesn't need to rain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Ended up with 1.1 inches of snow last night, 0.04 liquid. Waiting for the lake band to sink south and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Flood watch issued for WNY.. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible. * WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will be in ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Significant warming ahead of a slow warming cold front will result in a major melt down of a large portion of the extensive snow pack over the region. While this warming will begin on Wednesday, melt water is not forecast to reach the tributaries until Wednesday evening. A storm system will then track out of the Ohio valley late Wednesday night and Thursday...reaching our forecast area Thursday evening. This system is forecast to generate a half to one and a half inches of rain over western New York...most of which will come from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination of the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt will result in at LEAST major rises on area tributaries. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Not sure if that LO band will make it here. Looks like it might be falling apart and turning at an angle where it only hits Extreme NE Onondaga county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Not sure if that LO band will make it here. Looks like it might be falling apart and turning at an angle where it only hits Extreme NE Onondaga county. You must have your snow shield on high this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Snow starting to slow down now, picked up 3.2", most of that in the last 40 minutes.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Snow starting to slow down now, picked up 3.2", most of that in the last 40 minutes.. We’ll be lucky to get the 0.2 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: We’ll be lucky to get the 0.2 down here. We picked up our 1.3" of nickel and dime snow last night. Up to 57" on the season! Yay us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 After an ugly Thursday, Friday could prove to be wintry with lake involvement and re-whiten everything for a couple more days. Then next week is pretty ugly. Perhaps we can get a few more weeks of winter in March, as there are some indications it could be colder and active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: After an ugly Thursday, Friday could prove to be wintry with lake involvement and re-whiten everything for a couple more days. Then next week is pretty ugly. Perhaps we can get a few more weeks of winter in March, as there are some indications it could be colder and active. Too bad that snow on Friday will be falling on bare ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Going skiing tonight with the buy 1 get 1 free. By end of next week its going to look ugly even at Holiday Valley. I count 4 days above 50 here in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I-81 north closed due to a tractor trailer accident, near Adams.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Going skiing tonight with the buy 1 get 1 free. By end of next week its going to look ugly even at Holiday Valley. I count 4 days above 50 here in WNY. Have fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Entering Saharashreddercuse to die. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Going skiing tonight with the buy 1 get 1 free. By end of next week its going to look ugly even at Holiday Valley. I count 4 days above 50 here in WNY. My stats from last Monday at Sugarbush 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: All the models locked in with storm just across the border. EURO is still the closest (other than Ukmet). IDK. Wouldn’t take a ton to move it 50 miles. Not counting on it though. Clearly we can't trust COD lol Granted it's kutchie.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Entering Saharashreddercuse to die. Where lake effect goes to die. -SN here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Entering Saharashreddercuse to die. Snowing here now. It's not outrageous to think that we could jackpot another 0.8" with this band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Where lake effect all snow as of late goes to die. -SN here now. Fixed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 If we miss Thursday/Friday we have a pretty potent clipper after that with some lake enhanced snow, then another cutter next week. First 2 weeks of March look good but far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Snowing here now. It's not outrageous to think that we could jackpot another 0.8" with this band. Enjoy your jackpot. As of now, the band is doing as I predicted and "wrapping" around where I work in the village of Bville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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