Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6z GFS and ICON have nada late week. Still such a spread. Euro/EPS encouraging but I'd like to see a lot more agreement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 6z GFS and ICON have nada late week. Still such a spread. Euro/EPS encouraging but I'd like to see a lot more agreement. There's always one that disagrees with the rest. It usually ends up being the right one. It's been snowing nice fluffers here for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 6z GFS and ICON have nada late week. Still such a spread. Euro/EPS encouraging but I'd like to see a lot more agreement. Op is an outlier Gefs is more amplified 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS with another great run strong band from late weds into friday morning. Highest totals just south of Buffalo but remember lake temps are quite warm. And every model never gets that right…with 40 degree waters shift that band about 5 miles north. We have this come up every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Woke up to 1.6” of surprise fluff here this morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro looks a tad nw of 12z, and definitely wetter. Big hit from NE PA to interior NE. Looks alright I guess. I'm just happy to have frost back in the ground this morning. I was around Tug Hill the past couple days, and while it was white there it was sad how little snow there was. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 So at this point we have 2 camps…the GFS which would give much of WNY south of Niagara Falls very happy Wednesday night into much of Thursday with heavy lake effect,but not much outside that unto the weekend for anyone else…the other camp is the Euro which would still give the same area LES but to much lesser degree, however would give all of upstate a pretty big snowfall of 6+” on Thursday night and Friday. As they say the devil is in the details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So at this point we have 2 camps…the GFS which would give much of WNY south of Niagara Falls very happy Wednesday night into much of Thursday with heavy lake effect,but not much outside that unto the weekend for anyone else…the other camp is the Euro which would still give the same area LES but to much lesser degree, however would give all of upstate a pretty big snowfall of 6+” on Thursday night and Friday. As they say the devil is in the details. Got a look at the 6z EPS from elsewhere and it’s even more amped and solid for us here in Central NY for Thursday into Saturday. Starkly different than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So at this point we have 2 camps…the GFS which would give much of WNY south of Niagara Falls very happy Wednesday night into much of Thursday with heavy lake effect,but not much outside that unto the weekend for anyone else…the other camp is the Euro which would still give the same area LES but to much lesser degree, however would give all of upstate a pretty big snowfall of 6+” on Thursday night and Friday. As they say the devil is in the details. Usually, i'd ride with the Euro camp but as the last 2 years have shown us, expect the worst and still be ready to be disappointed. Just had a Ross Perot moment...literally just saw 5 black helicopters flying south at low altitude almost over my house. Wondering if this means spring is right around the corner? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 EPS still solid at 6z albeit not quite as wet as the 0z run. Goal posts also narrowed a bit esp on the western side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: EPS still solid at 6z albeit not quite as wet as the 0z run. Goal posts also narrowed a bit esp on the western side. This makes me think the euro op at 12z will be a bit further east, emulating the GFS. Eventually I believe it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: This makes me think the euro op at 12z will be a bit further east, emulating the GFS. Eventually I believe it gets there. The 6z EPS low centers were actually further west than 0z just not quite as wet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Picked up 3.2" since Sat night here, 18.1" on the season. Feels like mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS still looks fantastic for LES event. Watches probably go into effect this afternoon or tomorrow morning as event starts Weds night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 RGEM has best stuff just south of Buffalo I'd probably move that line 4-5 miles north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Potentially Significant Lake Snows Wednesday night and Thursday... Sfc ridge to our south departs off the Mid-Atlantic with developing southwest flow across the Lower Lakes Tuesday night ahead of the next system. Dry and not quite as cold with lows in the 20s to low 30s by daybreak Wednesday. Mid-level trough and sfc low will approach the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. 12/02 guidance suggests that the main cold front will cross the area with little fan fair Wednesday morning (not much precipitation). However, as the aforementioned low draws near Lake Huron by days end a secondary sharper front is advertised to plow east across Western NY. Much colder air, to the tune of -14C/-16C at H850 is advertised under cyclonic SW flow to then channel up Lake Erie. This will likely induce a lake response beginning first off Erie and then the same will occur a bit later off Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles suggest that there will likely be sufficient moisture extending through most of the DGZ along with equilibrium levels in the neighborhood of 6-7K feet. One other thing to note, it will become quite windy with gust up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wednesday evening. At this point, confident enough that there will likely be accumulating lake snows ENE of the Lakes beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday to mention it in the HWO. Otherwise, Wednesday look for temps to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s then rapidly fall off Wednesday evening. Temps will then be found in the 20s by sunrise Thursday. Pronounced cold advection around the south side of a trowal is evident across WNY by early Thursday morning. H85 temperatures drop like a rock into the -12 to -14C range through the day with large scale moisture secluding in the surface to 850 hPa layer around the trowal and over Lake Erie. Soundings suggest impressive lake induced instability, some synoptic moisture remaining, and a fetch of the entire lake to work with through the day Thursday. Likewise, GFS and Canadian Global wind fields favor confluent flow down the length of the lake with a long axis of the lake band likely to come into WNY somewhere near Buffalo for at least a solid portion of the day Thursday. This is the time to watch for potential SIGNIFICANT lake effect snow accumulations in the metro Buffalo area. The same things can be said for the Watertown area on the east end of Lake Ontario... just lagging about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Coldest night of the season so far, previous low was 6°.. We got down to 2.3° overnight.. Currently 3.6°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM still not showing much in terms of LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM still not showing much in terms of LES Long range NAM is as useful as the CFS at 786 hours out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Looks like I could get another 5 minutes of snow as the band drops south lol Actually GFS kutchie gives me around 7".. Watertown to Copenhagen is the sweet spot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Absolute paste bomb down in mid atlantic today reports of 11" so far and lots of trees and power outages. https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=7e01ec5800f700d700437a45351f0214 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM has 850s at -12 to -16 the entire event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Absolute paste bomb down in mid atlantic today reports of 11" so far and lots of trees and power outages. https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=7e01ec5800f700d700437a45351f0214 Now that’s a storm!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 CIPS continues to highlight some big storms on the analog matches. Adding the 2nd halves of Nov 2014 and Dec 2001. Still keeps Dec 95 in the mix as well. Gonna run to the store later and stock up on some hot dog buns. The gonna be running around like chicken little next 2 days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Absolute paste bomb down in mid atlantic today reports of 11" so far and lots of trees and power outages. https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=7e01ec5800f700d700437a45351f0214 Heavy snow from Lynchburg to Washington DC to Atlantic City. 1 to 2 inches an hour. Richmond reports a mixture of sleet and snow. All these cities were in the mid 60s yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Picked up 3.2" since Sat night here, 18.1" on the season. Feels like mid winter. Ended with a touch less 2.5” for the entirety. I agree with the watches being hoisted, latest tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Now that’s a storm!!!! Huntsville Al with 6”!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Another half inch yesterday. Brings me up to 19 inches for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Huntsville Al with 6”!!! That's great, Otsego County losing to Huntsville Alabama in the Golden Snowball contest in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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