TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Wolfie surely knows a lot of stuff. Some even say it’s useful. Hey may lack some teeth, but he makes up for it in brain cells. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Big city peeps gonna like the hi-Rez GFS. Really bumped NW, bringing Philly and NYC into it. Brings a inch to nyc. Lot of dry air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: -15 850s with good moisture and well aligned flow but it barely spits out any QPF. Wouldn't that flow take band well south of city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Brings a inch to nyc. Lot of dry air Yeah, can see Montauk getting 6" and the city getting a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 And with nothing else to offer you guys tonight besides frivolous comments and tears, I'm out... Have a great night, all! It's back to work for me tomorrow after a nice break. Enjoy your new snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Tim has quoted me 50 times without a response, I don't think he got the hint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like myself, Buckeyes_Suck, you and Devin are going to reap the rewards of this one. what are you saying? I'm going to get transition zoned on this one? i'm gonna call for a December 2010 replay, plop that 30"+ in 24 hours band over me again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Looks like they updated the Forecast discussion Mid-level trough and sfc low will approach the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. 12/02 guidance suggests that the main cold front will cross the area with little fan fair Wednesday morning (not much precipitation). However, as the aforementioned low draws near Lake Huron by days end a secondary sharper front is advertised to plow east across Western NY. Much colder air, to the tune of -14C/-16C at H850 is advertised under cyclonic SW flow to then channel up Lake Erie. This will likely induce a lake response beginning first off Erie and then the same will occur a bit later off Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles suggest that there will likely be sufficient moisture extending through most of the DGZ along with equilibrium levels in the neighborhood of 6-7K feet. One other thing to note, it will become quite windy with gust up to 40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wednesday evening. At this point, confident enough that there will likely be accumulating lake snows ENE of the Lakes beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday to mention it in the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 CIPS dropping lots of good analogs. 6 out of 15 were decent LES event for Buffalo Metro. Not pictured I found write ups in the book on Dec 83 which saw 1'+ in the city upto 4' in the south towns and Dec 79 that brought 20" to BUF in 24 hours and close to 3' in Depew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tim has quoted me 50 times without a response, I don't think he got the hint. Lmao. Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Icon close to cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 ICON is back to a near miss (as opposed to OTS). We keep watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Rgem has system very robust in mid west at hour 84. Would likely be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Also to note lake effect would be mostly south of Buffalo proper on rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It’s thundersnowin down in Alabama… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just revisiting the 12z Euro, it looks like the primary piece of energy for this storm starts coming ashore in the Pac NW Tuesday Evening and doesn't fully come onshore until Wednesday morning. And then hauls ass SE once fully in the flow. So there could be a lot of volatility in the models even within the 48hr timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lmao. Wow Alright Timmy I'll give you one more shot, don't screw it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: CIPS dropping lots of good analogs. 6 out of 15 were decent LES event for Buffalo Metro. Not pictured I found write ups in the book on Dec 83 which saw 1'+ in the city upto 4' in the south towns and Dec 79 that brought 20" to BUF in 24 hours and close to 3' in Depew. I was looking at that one in 79 had to go look at the book to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Alright Timmy I'll give you one more shot, don't screw it up. ??? What did I do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS gonna be another OTS dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Very fast flow from pacific. Man the pieces of energy fly on that jet stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 finished with 2.2 today. Gfs looks pretty sweet for first legit lake effect event on west to wsw flow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS with another great run strong band from late weds into friday morning. Highest totals just south of Buffalo but remember lake temps are quite warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Tea kettle lake snow formimg? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Wouldn't that flow take band well south of city Many times in early season events the winds can be out of the west and the band can go pretty far north. This is due to thermal troughing in addition to convergent winds with land interaction. Check out this loop from Nov 2014, winds were out of the west, but look at the shape of the band. This happens quite a bit in LES events off of Erie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS 72hr precip 18z Wed to 18z Sat for LES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Tea kettle lake snow formimg? Giant fluff bombs https://www.nittec.org/cameras/?cid=205 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Think cmc should be a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Giant fluff bombs https://www.nittec.org/cameras/?cid=205 Snowin pretty good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 CMC is still a bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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