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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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17 minutes ago, sferic said:

Going to take a drive up there some time this week just for the heck of it; only 28 miles from Cicero

Well if you want to see some snow, Thursday-thursday night may your best bet, not necessarily here but maybe a little north or the southern tug ..

Accumulating lake snows are possible east of Lake Ontario late
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
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The next event also looks modest..

Thursday evening...behind the final front 850 hPa temps drop down to
-10C/-12C over the lakes as the trough moves over and through the
region. This will likely be enough to support...albeit brief...a
period of accumulating lake snows east of Lake Ontario. A 250-260
flow will initially direct lake snows across S. Jefferson and far N.
Oswego County. The availability of the longer fetch of lake Ontario
and any added upstream connections will lend just enough support to
potentially produce several inches (3-5 inches) of snow before lake
snows track to the north and then diminish by Friday morning.

Off Lake Erie...a similar scenario will unfold but be hampered by
the shorter fetch of the lake which will likely limit accumulations.
That said...thinking guidance is a bit underdone due to ice coverage
represented in the modeling. Have bump up snowfall accumulations
across S. Erie and a small portion of Chautauqua County to reflect
this issue. Even so...it appears we are only looking at a few inches
(1-3 inches). Winds gradually back to the SW then S as we progress
through the night. When this occurs...lake snows will push north and
then quickly weaken as a mid-level warm front pushes into and
through the area.
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24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Looks like our run of winter is coming to a crashing halt, at least if the GFS is to be used. Many warm weather lows the next 2 weeks putting us close to end of the month. It doesn’t go in our favor at that point. 

Still on the fence enough but def been trending the wrong way to keep winter going.  At least it’s looking to stay active.  Worst thing now would be a slow 2-3 week warmup slowly eating away at the pack.  If it’s gonna go let’s torch it with some heavy rain so I can go on ice jam crick watch!  

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7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Still on the fence enough but def been trending the wrong way to keep winter going.  At least it’s looking to stay active.  Worst thing now would be a slow 2-3 week warmup slowly eating away at the pack.  If it’s gonna go let’s torch it with some heavy rain so I can go on ice jam crick watch!  

It could be an epic flood if that were to happen.

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7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It could be an epic flood if that were to happen.

Setup is there for flooding.  2.5-3” of SWE throughout the headwaters.  Very thick ice sheet on the creeks.  Mouth at the lake is frozen and I have not seen the cotter head out yet to ice break.  Rapid warmup and heavy rain would be a big concern.  But on a positive note haven’t had a good ice jam to chase in about 3 years now so bring it on!

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Setup is there for flooding.  2.5-3” of SWE throughout the headwaters.  Very thick ice sheet on the creeks.  Mouth at the lake is frozen and I have not seen the cotter head out yet to ice break.  Rapid warmup and heavy rain would be a big concern.  But on a positive note haven’t had a good ice jam to chase in about 3 years now so bring it on!

Im actually hoping for that as well. 

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