BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2022 Author Share Posted February 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: The immediate inner marinas and inlets are solid but out into the main lake itself I would not say it’s safe. Spotted this gap yesterday in the ice as it was likely shifting. Yeah there is a ton of open water and the offshore flow pushed all the ice back into lake away from shorelines today. I'm quite surprised with how cold its been that this lake isnt 100% frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah there is a ton of open water and the offshore flow pushed all the ice back into lake away from shorelines today. I'm quite surprised with how cold its been that this lake isnt 100% frozen. shes still holding on for one last big storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 9 hours ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: First time snowmobiling today, might be hooked. Did about 100 miles across the southern tier. One more reason to love snow. That's awesome that you had a good time. Snowmobiling is as expensive as you want to make it, and it comes with a lot of heartbreak because of the weather. But once you are out there enjoying the snow and your machine, there is nothing else like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just perfect conditions we did around 6 miles of trails out of a possible 18/19. Going to go back to do the other ones. They have different ratings. Green (Easy) Blue (Moderate) and Black (Difficult). Similar to downhill skiing Man. You guys are lucky. You mustn’t have young children! Can’t wait till they’re a bit older to do more things like this!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Snowmobile trails were awesome yesterday. I’m guessing with the 30s and sun this week most of of the trails will be done though unless we get more snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 51 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Man. You guys are lucky. You mustn’t have young children! Can’t wait till they’re a bit older to do more things like this!! Someone that feels my pain! I have 3 kids under 3! Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Someone that feels my pain! I have 3 kids under 3! Haha Wow. You’re REALLY in it!!! Good for you though brother. My kids are my world and it just keeps getting better!! (10 and 7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 36 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Someone that feels my pain! I have 3 kids under 3! Haha If you like to cross country ski look for a Burley trailer and get a ski attachment for it. It attaches to you via a harness. We would put our 3 kids in there with snowsuits and blankets. We loved it. They loved it too and often fell asleep with the gentle rocking. Terrain has to be mild though because even the slightest uphill is like climbing Everest with all 3 of them behind you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Wonderful pictures and discussion, all! Have a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2022 Author Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: Man. You guys are lucky. You mustn’t have young children! Can’t wait till they’re a bit older to do more things like this!! Yeah my lifestyle is not conducive for children. However, there were kids on the cross country trails yesterday and lots of kids at holiday valley skiing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:08 AM, tombo82685 said: So it basically comes down to which MJO forecast is correct. The gefs seem to slow to me with its wave propagation and would tip my cap towards euro evolution going off roundy plots. The euro looks wrong to me with not pushing this into phase 2/3 more before heading into 4. That was to easy, would think we see eps correct towards a colder medium and possibly LR as it continues to catch on to convection in the IO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Forecast snow amounts through Thursday AM, pretty much a carbon copy of the rgem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Here's my assessment of the 12Z model runs: Buffalo continues to add on to its season snowfall amounts while Syracuse continues to struggle to get even an inch during one of its least snow winters ever (after two pathetic winters already). Gah. Bring on Fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Here's my assessment of the 12Z model runs: Buffalo continues to add on to its season snowfall amounts while Syracuse continues to struggle to get even an inch during one of its least snow winters ever (after two pathetic winters already). Gah. Bring on Fall. You skipped over Snowy Spring and Sizzling Summer. Weird. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: You skipped over Snowy Spring and Sizzling Summer. Weird. Fantastic Fall and Wonderful Winter are the only 2 seasons that exist in my world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 At this point, there's barely any winter weather to talk about for the next two weeks. Hopefully that'll change. But, man, what a bad run the last 7 winters have been for winter weenies like myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: At this point, there's barely any winter weather to talk about for the next two weeks. Hopefully that'll change. But, man, what a bad run the last 7 winters have been for winter weenies like myself. i'd watch that storm around day 10-12. Certainly can cut, put if all the energy doesn't dump out west could see a more pos tilted trough. Kind of reminds me of last system, but think h5 looks a bit worse as there isn't a huge pressing arctic high combined with ridge rolling over would lead to more se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: i'd watch that storm around day 10-12. Certainly can cut, put if all the energy doesn't dump out west could see a more pos tilted trough. Kind of reminds me of last system, but think h5 looks a bit worse as there isn't a huge pressing arctic high combined with ridge rolling over would lead to more se ridge. So, what you're saying is.... Congrats Buffalo!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2022 Author Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So, what you're saying is.... Congrats Buffalo!? Didn’t you get more then Buffalo last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Didn’t you get more then Buffalo last storm? I don't think Syracuse did? Temp is also 4 to 5 degrees above the forecasted high as we sizzle away to the lower 40s. Almost always reach forecasted high by late morning and keep warming from there. I need to find a place with elevation...like Springville or Cazenovia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Exciting runs these days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So, what you're saying is.... Congrats Buffalo!? No, what I’m saying is to keep an eye on that period. I don’t think it’s a done deal cutter. Phasing this winter has been pretty tough this winter as most events have had that stretched h5 pos tilted trough look. I could see that occurring here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: No, what I’m saying is to keep an eye on that period. I don’t think it’s a done deal cutter. Phasing this winter has been pretty tough this winter as most events have had that stretched h5 look to the pattern. I could see that occurring here. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Albany now in last place both in YtD snowfall and YtD actual as % of YtD avg. BUF - 73.5 YtD, 65.1 avg, 112.9% ROC - 61.5 YtD, 63.0 avg, 97.6% SYR - 46.7 YtD, 81.2 avg, 57.5% BGM - 39.1 YtD, 50.6 avg, 77.3% ALB - 17.1 YtD, 34.6 avg, 49.4% 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Topped out at 41.9° with filtered sunshine. Was able to make good headway on clearing the driveway down to pavement after all the sleet and zr build up from last storm. My ocd can't stand having a paved driveway with snow or ice pack build up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I don't think Syracuse did? Temp is also 4 to 5 degrees above the forecasted high as we sizzle away to the lower 40s. Almost always reach forecasted high by late morning and keep warming from there. I need to find a place with elevation...like Springville or Cazenovia. Kbuf is giving to much credit to snow cover going with lower temps. I looked at model output for ksyr and they had low 40s today. I can see going under with temps in Dec and mid Jan with snow cover. But pushing towards mid feb with southerly flow, that’s a negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Only 35.0 so far back down to 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Albany now in last place both in YtD snowfall and YtD actual as % of YtD avg. BUF - 73.5 YtD, 65.1 avg, 112.9% ROC - 61.5 YtD, 63.0 avg, 97.6% SYR - 46.7 YtD, 81.2 avg, 57.5% BGM - 39.1 YtD, 50.6 avg, 77.3% ALB - 17.1 YtD, 34.6 avg, 49.4% Looks like it gets progressively worse from West to East across NYS. BGM might be a slight anomaly due to the airport's high elevation relative to other cities, as well as to downtown Binghamton. Isn't the airport something like 1600'+ while downtown is around 800-900'? That would sort of be like Albany's official weather records being recorded on the Helderberg Escarpment (Thatcher Park, around 1000') instead of where the airport currently is at around 300'. Either way, I know it's hard to pick a spot that is truly representative of that area due to the frequent elevation changes. I will say, however, we've had pretty consistent snow cover since early January despite the low snowfall. That's a departure from the previous couple winters where we've had a couple big storms, but bigger warmups too. The 2"+ of sleet that fell the other day should give this some extra staying power too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stash said: Looks like it gets progressively worse from West to East across NYS. BGM might be a slight anomaly due to the airport's high elevation relative to other cities, as well as to downtown Binghamton. Isn't the airport something like 1600'+ while downtown is around 800-900'? That would sort of be like Albany's official weather records being recorded on the Helderberg Escarpment (Thatcher Park, around 1000') instead of where the airport currently is at around 300'. Either way, I know it's hard to pick a spot that is truly representative of that area due to the frequent elevation changes. I will say, however, we've had pretty consistent snow cover since early January despite the low snowfall. That's a departure from the previous couple winters where we've had a couple big storms, but bigger warmups too. The 2"+ of sleet that fell the other day should give this some extra staying power too. Yeah, Albany proper is a snow hellhole. I'm at 28"ish. Garbage but considerably better than them. I'm working across the street from the airport right now(leaving jobsite) and it's actually snowing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Kbuf is giving to much credit to snow cover going with lower temps. I looked at model output for ksyr and they had low 40s today. I can see going under with temps in Dec and mid Jan with snow cover. But pushing towards mid feb with southerly flow, that’s a negative Syracuse falls under BGM. I wouldn't even go with under in Dec or Jan. here. It almost always gets above forecasted highs here. True heat conductor. South winds are my worst nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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