tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 euro op was a big outlier with that end of the run event amongst eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: euro op was a big outlier with that end of the run event amongst eps 12Z GFS has 5 synoptic misses in this run. Most are offshore and/or S&E. Hope that's just its usual bias showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, Syrmax said: 12Z GFS has 5 synoptic misses in this run. Most are offshore and/or S&E. Hope that's just its usual bias showing up. eps members are basically in that same boat as well. If that one misses, def a big signal is around day 11-13, but that one could get a little ugly with more se ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Even with the upgrades and gfs is better than it used to be. It still has a tendency to catch big storms in long range to loose them in midrange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I always love looking at the ens because of their lower resolution they don't pick up on the tughill shadow. So they broad brush good qpf over me, but in reality im stuck in the ass crack between the two butt cheeks 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Even with the upgrades and gfs is better than it used to be. It still has a tendency to catch big storms in long range to loose them in midrange. it's certainly been better this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Hoping for a Clipper pattern and/or east coast storm pattern that is better than the suckage we've had so far this winter. It's been SWFEs and.... that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hoping for a Clipper pattern and/or east coast storm pattern that is better than the suckage we've had so far this winter. It's been SWFEs and.... that's it. Get ready for cutters and overrunning events now due to this post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Get ready for cutters and overrunning events now due to this post Like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, Syrmax said: Like this? Yes, exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yes, exactly! Well, it's gone on 12Z but always lurking in the shadows for @TugHillMatt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 After trying not to vomit for a moment...I remembered that this week's event also looked like a hot pile of garbage, and look where it ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I can’t wait for the first sleep in a while with no need to worry about the models. I’m gonna crash tonight hard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Well, it's gone on 12Z but always lurking in the shadows for @TugHillMatt Apparently you have your online book of shadows where you paste these little maps of poison for trolling purposes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: I can’t wait for the first sleep in a while with no need to worry about the models. I’m gonna crash tonight hard! Ok. Well we might be on here chatting at 7 pm. You will be missed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Quote A progressive and amplified upper air pattern to close out the weekend and start the first half of the week. Initially Sunday night, a positively-tilted trough will position east of the Mississippi River. Due to the nature of the trough axis`s alignment, rather weak forcing will prohibit further cyclogenesis to the already existing surface low over the upper Great Lakes, which will sandwich the region between an exiting area of surface high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes. Overall, this will promote rather quiet weather Sunday night into Monday. Additionally, due to the synoptic setup the region will be under broad southwest flow during this time which will cause temperatures to climb Monday. Daytime highs will range in the 30s, with the warmest temperatures occuring across the Genesee Valley where a couple of readings may reach 40. This being said, such a warm ambient temperature above the snowpack will warm the pack and allow it to begin to ripen though, little meltoff is expected. The aforementioned upper level trough will work its way east crossing the central Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday, which will result the weak surface low pushing its cold front across the region Monday night. However, with the majority of the energy associated with this system being transferred to the system riding up the East Coast, resulting in little forcing across the region just some flurries and pesky snow showers are expected. Otherwise, temperatures aloft may get cold enough to support some lake enhanced snow showers east of both lakes Monday night and last into Tuesday morning. Surface level ridging will build into the region throughout the day on Tuesday, favoring rather quiet weather with just a few flurries and lake snow showers (focused east of both lakes). The upper and mid- level ridging will pass across the region Tuesday night, promoting fair dry weather. Ensemble members are in agreement that an anomalous 500mb trough moves over the Great Lakes region mid to late week. A cold front will approach the region mid-week and initially, a mix of rain and snow showers are possible. This will likely be short lived as another shot of cold air moves into the Great Lakes region by Friday. Lake effect snow showers possible east of the Lakes through Thursday night. A brief period of dry weather is possible Friday before a clipper system brings a chance for snow showers into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: There will be snow chances with these temp outlooks. Yeah and also"leaning" towards wetter than normal.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Jackpot!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Yeah, that's not gonna cut it lol Maybe for areas that rely on southerly upslope which is not us lol Lake response will have to save the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, that's not gonna cut it lol Maybe for areas that rely on southerly upslope which is not us lol Lake response will have to save the day... GFS has a weird storm there just kind of wobbles for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, that's not gonna cut it lol Maybe for areas that rely on southerly upslope which is not us lol Lake response will have to save the day... well good thing we live by a massive lake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Jackpot!! You going to be able to dig yourself out of that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 When we get into February IMO it's every man for himself right now in terms of snow. No cheering for other bakyards to get snow. I will steal your snow and you will like, and accept it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Sunset was lit tonight! Was doing some scouting to see if a lake hike would be possible tomorrow morning but didn’t see anyone that far out this evening. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Sunset was lit tonight! Was doing some scouting to see if a lake hike would be possible tomorrow morning but didn’t see anyone that far out this evening. Want to get out there and ice skate before a warm up. Its definitely thick enough to skate on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Want to get out there and ice skate before a warm up. Its definitely thick enough to skate on Where do you think you can find ice like that on Erie? Are there really spots frozen that flat and clean? My hike idea might have been a little ambitious trying to go all the way out to the break wall but shoreline walk def looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, that's not gonna cut it lol Maybe for areas that rely on southerly upslope which is not us lol Lake response will have to save the day... What happened to Clippers that used to move through the Midwest? Not ones that just continue to clip Canada... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Man, what a yawn fest on the 0Z runs through mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Man, what a yawn fest on the 0Z runs through mid February. The opposite is true too; when models show a stormy pattern and nada materializes. Things can change and do; keep the faith! It works both ways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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