tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks for this great writeup! MJO seems to rule the day these days. Hopefully we can have some more solid winter before Spring. We have really only had about a month of it. In some years it certainly does, in other years the PV does. Last Feb was PV driven that cold with the ssw. But yea, really up to how the mjo propagates through IO and into maritimes and at what speed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 There will be snow chances with these temp outlooks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There will be snow chances with these temp outlooks. that 8-14 day outlook to me is highly dependent on how mjo verifies. Could see that going warmer if mjo propagates faster towards maritimes. If gefs are right, then colder look will be correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: After this cold Jan/Feb hoping for March 2012. Oh, shut up. You and Syrmax can go on a trip together and bask your hairy legs in the equatorial heat and sunlight of a tropical island. Haaaaaaave fuuuuuuuuuuuun! And may a Lake Erie Death Band rip and roar over the Hamburger in your absence! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... While temperatures will average above normal for much of this period...a pattern change from one of a progressive flow to a more highly amplified blocking one will lead to lower mercury readings as we head from Friday into the ensuing weekend. The culprit for this will be the building of a west coast ridge that will lock in a +PNA pattern as we head into the middle of the month. This supports the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center which suggests below normal temperatures of our region for much of the middle of the month. Given the return of a locked in longwave trough over the eastern conus...we can look forward to a higher potential for lake snows and more frequent frontal passages from clipper systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, shut up. You and Syrmax can go on a trip together and bask your hairy legs in the equatorial heat and sunlight of a tropical island. Haaaaaaave fuuuuuuuuuuuun! And may a Lake Erie Death Band rip and roar over the Hamburger in your absence! March 15th is my cut off date. Unless there is a big dog snowstorm coming I cheer for warmth and sun. Nov 1st-March 15th I cheer for cold and snow. I got strict guidelines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: March 15th is my cut off date. Unless there is a big dog snowstorm coming I cheer for warmth and sun. Nov 1st-March 15th I cheer for cold and snow. I got strict guidelines. I'll accept it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Next chance Monday into Tuesday albeit light.. The aforementioned weak sfc low will drag a cold front through our region Monday night. There could be some flurries and nuisance snow showers from this passage...but with the bulk of the energy from the system being absorbed by a storm moving up the East coast...there will be little forcing over our region. It may get cold enough though for more numerous snow showers east of both lakes. Any minor lake response should persist into Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, shut up. You and Syrmax can go on a trip together and bask your hairy legs in the equatorial heat and sunlight of a tropical island. Haaaaaaave fuuuuuuuuuuuun! And may a Lake Erie Death Band rip and roar over the Hamburger in your absence! Syrmax likes drizzle in snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... While temperatures will average above normal for much of this period...a pattern change from one of a progressive flow to a more highly amplified blocking one will lead to lower mercury readings as we head from Friday into the ensuing weekend. The culprit for this will be the building of a west coast ridge that will lock in a +PNA pattern as we head into the middle of the month. This supports the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center which suggests below normal temperatures of our region for much of the middle of the month. Given the return of a locked in longwave trough over the eastern conus...we can look forward to a higher potential for lake snows and more frequent frontal passages from clipper systems. If it's similar to what we had in January, one would think it wouldn't be as suppressed...leading to more wintry opportunities. I think it will be another period where not much shows on the models, and then little systems just "appear out of nowhere." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Syrmax likes drizzle in snowstorms Lol. Yes, Syrmax does have some trolling tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Syrmax likes drizzle in snowstorms Just now, TugHillMatt said: Lol. Yes, Syrmax does have some trolling tendencies. Correction: You both do. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: that 8-14 day outlook to me is highly dependent on how mjo verifies. Could see that going warmer if mjo propagates faster towards maritimes. If gefs are right, then colder look will be correct Should say, I think beginning of that period holds the cold, could be moderation for back half of that if euro guidance is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Correction: You both do. lol Hey I get it I give it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Rgem doing what the rgem does lol Fits the pattern though, missing the heaviest just to the south. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem doing what the rgem does lol Fits the pattern though, missing the heaviest just to the south. Lol Gives a little bit of interest in what appears to be quite a boring weather week. GFS advertising a nice, extended period of lake effect for the belts...especially those of us near Lake Ontario, starting over the weekend into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Gives a little bit of interest in what appears to be quite a boring weather week. GFS advertising a nice, extended period of lake effect for the belts...especially those of us near Lake Ontario, starting over the weekend into next week. Hey now be careful with those Kuchera maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hey now be careful with those Kuchera maps. You have to know the appropriate setting for sharing them. Kuchera can easily verify with Lake effect opportunities. It's not wise to use them for synoptic events, unless we are talking Alberta Clippers in a cold, clipper pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You have to know the appropriate setting for sharing them. Kuchera can easily verify with Lake effect opportunities. It's not wise to use them for synoptic events, unless we are talking Alberta Clippers in a cold, clipper pattern. I know. Areas that got lake enhanced verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 periods to watch IMO for next widespread snow fall would be the wed night into Friday AM timeframe with a clipper and should get a lake response, esp with Ontario. Then another clipper for Friday PM into Sunday AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Euro has something brewing at the end of the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 2 periods to watch IMO for next widespread snow fall would be the wed night into Friday AM timeframe with a clipper and should get a lake response, esp with Ontario. Then another clipper for Friday PM into Sunday AM Agreed. Euro then follows that up with a Valentine's Day snowstorm that would be the most widespread snowstorm of the season for several subforums. If only: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Bloody @wolfie09... He's ALWAYS one step ahead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Agreed. Euro then follows that up with a Valentine's Day snowstorm that would be the most widespread snowstorm of the season for several subforums. If only: Gfs came close again today to phasing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Agreed. Euro then follows that up with a Valentine's Day snowstorm that would be the most widespread snowstorm of the season for several subforums. If only: yea that period has been on and off hinted at by ens for a while now. Could be a nice 4-5 day stretch starting wed PM and maybe finishing up with a big event if the pieces come together right Thats a nice stout pna ridge out west euro hinted at, lets see if eps agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Yeah, that is definitely looking like a week with some opportunity as indices/parts shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Next week looks somewhat on the drier side besides a little JP over the tug..These clippers that go north of Ontario don't tend to have much synoptic moisture and could even introduce mixing..It's basically LES or nothing lol Not really seeing much wide spread with the GFS being the most favorable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Next week looks somewhat on the drier side besides a little JP over the tug..These clippers that go north of Ontario don't tend to have much synoptic moisture and could even introduce mixing..It's basically LES or nothing lol Not really seeing much wide spread with the GFS being the most favorable.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Haha just trying to keep it real brother..We all know this will change but this is usually the type of pattern that Dave would call garbage lol I myself like"chaos".. Northern stream disturbances and inland runners lol One of my biggest LES events last year was a synoptic rain maker..(apps runner)..Weak waves that pass to my SE don't do much for me..(Downsloping NE wind) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haha just trying to keep it real brother..We all know this will change but this is usually the type of pattern that Dave would call garbage lol I myself like"chaos".. Northern stream disturbances and inland runners lol One of my biggest LES events last year was a synoptic rain maker..(apps runner)..Weak waves that pass to my SE don't do much for me.. the euro looked pretty good to me for a nice refresher later in the week with some clippers. Gfs has been advertising the same in that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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