vortmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: This looks great here then it take a right hand turn and just grazes southern New England and Long Island. Hopfully that northern wave catches up quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Perfect night on the slopes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:57 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I found @TugHillMattnew home Personally I think an ideal climate for me as I get older would be the Mid Atlantic coast. Much longer summers, winter is generally mild but they also generally snow every single winter. Add in a monster winter storm once in a while and weaker hurricanes....just my favourite type of climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Lake Erie today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Personally I think an ideal climate for me as I get older would be the Mid Atlantic coast. Much longer summers, winter is generally mild but they also generally snow every single winter. Add in a monster winter storm once in a while and weaker hurricanes....just my favourite type of climate I love the climo here. It’s pretty warm here in summer and fall and get Great Lake effect/winter storms. Spring sucks but I usually plan a trip to somewhere warm during that time which tides me over until it gets warm here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Perfect night on the slopes I love night skiing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake Erie today WIDDEEEEE OPEN BABY! More ice in Lil Jons mouth then Lake Erie! Plenty of time for another February 30”+ event like last year thought I’m not expecting it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: WIDDEEEEE OPEN BABY! More ice in Lil Jons mouth then Lake Erie! Plenty of time for another February 30”+ event like last year thought I’m not expecting it. Yeah the last 2 days of warmth and sun definitely helped stop the icing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 This time period would be next potential Lake enhanced event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Lots of glancing blows from clippers with deep arctic air/lake effect chances in the next couple weeks. This winter will a solid “B” for me if the latest Gfs run tonight verified verbatim. Quite the pattern we’ve been in for awhile now. If this current storm give us a foot we’ll have well over a foot on the ground for the better part of the next two weeks which is actually highly unusual even for this typically snowy area; and especially in light of recent climate change. If we keep a foot or better snowpack for 12 days it would be only the third time since the mid 1980s. Quite the feat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Lots of glancing blows from clippers with deep arctic air/lake effect chances in the next couple weeks. This winter will a solid “B” for me if the latest Gfs run tonight verified verbatim. Quite the pattern we’ve been in for awhile now. If this current storm give us a foot we’ll have well over a foot on the ground for the better part of the next two weeks which is actually highly unusual even for this typically snowy area; and especially in light of recent climate change. If we keep a foot or better snowpack for 12 days it would be only the third time since the mid 1980s. Quite the feat! Wow, 56 days in 1945? Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Will be up in the Adirondacks for presidents day weekend. Going to hike Sawteeth mountain, check out the ice caves, and ice skate on the frozen lakes/ponds. From recent hikers there is around 3-4' of snow on sawteeth peak. Might have a chance at 5-6' up there in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Long range kinda gone to crap on gfs. Maybe just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Yeah bunch of quick hitting N stream disturbances on both the GFS and Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yeah bunch of quick hitting N stream disturbances on both the GFS and Canadian.. That looks pretty good. Should get lake enhanced events ahead of each one of those? Haven't checked the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 What happened to our colder weather for after this storm? Looks like mid to upper 30s all of a sudden much of next week. What has happened to the days of yore with highs in the 20s and replenishing snow showers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What happened to our colder weather for after this storm? Looks like mid to upper 30s all of a sudden much of next week. What has happened to the days of yore with highs in the 20s and replenishing snow showers? It’s because last night I mentioned how the extended looked great and we were going to hold this snowpack for a couple weeks. Damnit all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It’s because last night I mentioned how the extended looked great and we were going to hold this snowpack for a couple weeks. Damnit all. It will stay plenty chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Well we’ve got something to track! At least for the next 6 hours haha. I’ll be in placid that weekend, what I wouldn’t give… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: What happened to our colder weather for after this storm? Looks like mid to upper 30s all of a sudden much of next week. What has happened to the days of yore with highs in the 20s and replenishing snow showers? Looked to me beginning to mid part of next week always looked more seasonable to slightly above as the flow gets a bit more zonal. Colder look starts later in the week and the flow goes more meridonal. I like how the pattern looks going forward. Not overbearing cold, but cold enough for snow and active as the mean trough axis looks to be to our west. Should cause a storm track closer by. Then looks like a lot of northern stream disturbances too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Fantasy storm of the day.. Not much before this timeframe, maybe some quick"refreshers".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Fantasy storm of the day.. Not much before this timeframe, maybe some quick"refreshers"..Someone just posted about this on Twitter that I follow. Lots of energy that needs to phase during this time period but if it does, we would be looking at something large and fantastic. Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Well, this HAS been the season of Holiday Snow storms/events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 52 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: Someone just posted about this on Twitter that I follow. Lots of energy that needs to phase during this time period but if it does, we would be looking at something large and fantastic. Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk The 12z GFS has a similar situation to now just before that final wave runs along the slow moving frontal boundary. Could be a repeat with an added bang at the end. 10 days out is fantasy land though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I am happy to finally have a great snowpack, but am a bit disappointed we are going to be melting some of it already as temps jump to the 35 to 40 degree range this next week. (Lower 40s probably inevitable in the Sizzle.) Without looking at any maps, I assume dewpoints will be low since overnight lows will be in the teens/low 20s. So thinking is it will be a slow thaw. But still, a bit irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 So what do you guys think for the rest of the month? It's looking like mixed signals. SYR, BGM, and Albany may have trouble getting to even 50% of average. SYR has the best chance of the three, and very likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So what do you guys think for the rest of the month? It's looking like mixed signals. SYR, BGM, and Albany may have trouble getting to even 50% of average. SYR has the best chance of the three, and very likely will. Forget about the strat for remainder of the winter, that is record strong. Despite the strong SPV for most of the winter, there has been a notable disconnect between the TPV and SPV which has allowed for brief intrusions of high latitude blocking across the Arctic domain. That looks to come to an end as it looks like the SPV and TPV look to finally couple. Can see how all the blues have been stuck above 300hpa, that looks to change by Presidents Day. So that could signal to a possible warmer than normal March. In terms of February there are some weak intrusions of -AO. To me the biggest difference if you look at the 2 ens guidance the gefs and eps is how they handle their mjo forecast. The eps/euro mjo goes right into phase 4 which is warm for us with more zonal flow across the US with a +epo. If this were the case, would favor northern tier as cold air might be tough to come by The gefs bring this into phase 2 then 3, then slowly work towards 4. Thats a much colder forecast and would promote much colder weather with more wintry impacts. Can see on the gefs OLR starts in eastern IO then slowly propagate towards Bay of Bengal. Looking at the VP maps, definitely would support more convection firing in the eastern IO than what the euro would advertise and would be a nod to the gfs mjo forecast http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png The roundy mjo plots which I love and think grab convection tendency the best would show the phase 2/3 emergence but quickly go towards phase 4/5 into maritimes which would support warmer pattern So it basically comes down to which MJO forecast is correct. The gefs seem to slow to me with its wave propagation and would tip my cap towards euro evolution going off roundy plots. The euro looks wrong to me with not pushing this into phase 2/3 more before heading into 4. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Forget about the strat for remainder of the winter, that is record strong. Despite the strong SPV for most of the winter, there has been a notable disconnect between the TPV and SPV which has allowed for brief intrusions of high latitude blocking across the Arctic domain. That looks to come to an end as it looks like the SPV and TPV look to finally couple. Can see how all the blues have been stuck above 300hpa, that looks to change by Presidents Day. So that could signal to a possible warmer than normal March. In terms of February there are some weak intrusions of -AO. To me the biggest difference if you look at the 2 ens guidance the gefs and eps is how they handle their mjo forecast. The eps/euro mjo goes right into phase 4 which is warm for us with more zonal flow across the US with a +epo. If this were the case, would favor northern tier as cold air might be tough to come by The gefs bring this into phase 2 then 3, then slowly work towards 4. Thats a much colder forecast and would promote much colder weather with more wintry impacts. Can see on the gefs OLR starts in eastern IO then slowly propagate towards Bay of Bengal. Looking at the VP maps, definitely would support more convection firing in the eastern IO than what the euro would advertise and would be a nod to the gfs mjo forecast http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png The roundy mjo plots which I love and think grab convection tendency the best would show the phase 2/3 emergence but quickly go towards phase 4/5 into maritimes which would support warmer pattern So it basically comes down to which MJO forecast is correct. The gefs seem to slow to me with its wave propagation and would tip my cap towards euro evolution going off roundy plots. The euro looks wrong to me with not pushing this into phase 2/3 more before heading into 4. Thanks for this great writeup! MJO seems to rule the day these days. Hopefully we can have some more solid winter before Spring. We have really only had about a month of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 After this cold Jan/Feb hoping for March 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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