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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Looks good for Buffalo and that's all that matters ;)

I think I posted more than some of you posters during your big event last year in Binghamton. I'm not an IMBY poster. I'm just a fan of huge storms, albeit it LES/synoptic. I followed that storm yesterday all day in their thread. But if a big dog LES storm hits, that is the only thing I want IMBY. :lol:

You'll catch me in the hurricane/tornadic outbreak threads all over AMX posting in spring/summer.

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35 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Do you need a crash course on what climate change is? JFC

He doesn't understand the law of thermodynamics. Warmer SSTs off the coast are fueling these strong nor'easters just like they fuel the stronger hurricanes we've had the last few years. Here is a good article about it.

https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/

The team also saw that for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) that SST increased, the number of extreme storms went up by about 21 percent. Based on current climate model projections, the researchers concluded that extreme storms may increase 60 percent by the year 2100.

The highest snowfall totals in New England in recent years actually proves global warming, not disprove it.

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1 hour ago, 96blizz said:

With this type of set up and @tombo82685 commentary - at this range I would rather it be a bit NW than SE. 

it depends, if it phases this goes nw, nothing to stop it. But of it doesn’t phase as much it will go more progressive and this will push southeast. Key is that phase in the southeast. Would still lean a bit more progressive. Those tpv pieces are tough to phase. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think I posted more than some of you posters during your big event last year. I'm not an IMBY poster. I'm just a fan of huge storms, albeit it LES/synoptic. I followed that storm yesterday all day in their thread. But if a big dog LES storm hits, that is the only thing I want IMBY. :lol:

You'll catch me in the hurricane/tornadic outbreak threads all over AMX posting in spring/summer.

Yep, Im the rare all year long poster. A bit less in the summer but I enjoy big time heat waves almost as much as big time snowstorms. 

Anyways back to the storm. Its starting to look decent for far WNY/GTHA. Im wondering how/when warnings or advisories become issued. Since it starts late Tuesday night-Friday morning is it one long winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory with a winter storm watch. 

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HWO

The potential exists for a long duration winter storm to impact the
region Wednesday night into Friday. This system has the potential
to bring significant accumulating snow. Details in forecast track
and exact amounts are still emerging at this time. A more northern
track could also bring the possibility of ice.
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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

He doesn't understand the law of thermodynamics. Warmer SSTs off the coast are fueling these strong nor'easters just like they fuel the stronger hurricanes we've had the last few years. Here is a good article about it.

https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/

I understand climate goes thru cycles and patterns that change constantly. Taking 75 years of reading and saying climate change is the same as taking readings from 1 second out of a entire decade. Climate always changing. Up and down. Undersea volcanoes sun spots ocean salinity all contribute. 75 years out of 5 billion come on. Plus the artificial spiking of Temps with changing how readings are taken scews things as well. Oh and the heating and cooling of core the Earth generates it own heat that radiates out from core. I am sure that fluctuates as well. 

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Deterministic guidance the past several runs (days) have been all
over the board regarding the potential storm beginning Wednesday
night through Thursday night time frame.

Guidance Update...

The 30/12Z run of the ECMWF has again trended further NW and is now
more in line with the GFS and Canadian-NH. Would still like too see
some run to run consistency but a somewhat more clearer picture is
starting to evolve. Again...a lot will ride on the strength of the
sfc high to our northwest and the eventual push of the 850 hPa
thermal boundary (cold front) into and across the region. The next
key will be where it stalls or sets up which will then provide a
path for several waves of low pressure to track along. This boundary
will also determine p-type and snowfall amounts...which could be
significant depending on which side of the boundary you reside.
Right now...its looking like an all snow event for all of our CWA.
The question is just how much...too early to say at this point.
Again...just want to hammer one "big" point home with this update.
As was previously stated...guidance has been all over the board. Its
only been the 30/12Z guidance that has been a little bit more
consistent. Still lots of time for things to change but will start
with adding this potential storm in the HWO. stay tuned!
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45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think I posted more than some of you posters during your big event last year in Binghamton. I'm not an IMBY poster. I'm just a fan of huge storms, albeit it LES/synoptic. I followed that storm yesterday all day in their thread. But if a big dog LES storm hits, that is the only thing I want IMBY. :lol:

You'll catch me in the hurricane/tornadic outbreak threads all over AMX posting in spring/summer.

I'm just busting your chops.

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36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like they are tightening up. The nw fringe didn’t move much. Just losing all those more progressive run makes it seem that way 

Yeah I meant the mean shifted. With more nw solutions and less se solutions the mean will shift to the nw.

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37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Deterministic guidance the past several runs (days) have been all
over the board regarding the potential storm beginning Wednesday
night through Thursday night time frame.

Guidance Update...

The 30/12Z run of the ECMWF has again trended further NW and is now
more in line with the GFS and Canadian-NH. Would still like too see
some run to run consistency but a somewhat more clearer picture is
starting to evolve. Again...a lot will ride on the strength of the
sfc high to our northwest and the eventual push of the 850 hPa
thermal boundary (cold front) into and across the region. The next
key will be where it stalls or sets up which will then provide a
path for several waves of low pressure to track along. This boundary
will also determine p-type and snowfall amounts...which could be
significant depending on which side of the boundary you reside.
Right now...its looking like an all snow event for all of our CWA.
The question is just how much...too early to say at this point.
Again...just want to hammer one "big" point home with this update.
As was previously stated...guidance has been all over the board. Its
only been the 30/12Z guidance that has been a little bit more
consistent. Still lots of time for things to change but will start
with adding this potential storm in the HWO. stay tuned!

This is music to my ears. “All snow for entire CWA”

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The THM Effect. I heard it’s being added to meteorology textbooks as we speak. 

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

We try to avoid discussing/debating (plus it's not "permitted") climate change on subforums. It causes way too much "heated" bantering and division. The only part you're allowed to discuss is the THM effect.

 

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