Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Who used to say this?!? IIRC, it was a poster named Buckeye back in the day, a legit funny contributor (not the current lunatic Moderator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Definitely further NW We soak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Waaaay NW from 0z. At least we stopped some of the bleeding the other way. Is now the time we go too far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The storm really never "bombs" out as its anafrontal so you want to be as close to that taint as possible to get the best stuff. In comparison to a strengthening closing off system you'd rather be further NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The storm really never "bombs" out as its anafrontal so you want to be as close to that taint as possible to get the best stuff. In comparison to a strengthening closing off system you'd rather be further NW. Ah yes, the old “ya gotta smell the taint” deal… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Waaaay NW from 0z. At least we stopped some of the bleeding the other way. Is now the time we go too far NW? Been way too far NW for me as is. This is DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 That's some major difference at H5 between 0z and 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We soak. Over a foot for SYR. Not as much juice as GFS. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 We take 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We take 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Been way too far NW for me as is. This is DOA. Plenty of days of tribulation remaining here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Output of GFS, CMC and Euro Ops look remarkably similar now for this range after being quite divergent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 It's not too far off. First precipitation with this event starts around 2-3 PM on Weds across WNY. Winter Storm Watches likely issued tomorrow afternoon if guidance reminds consistent. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The potential exists for a long duration winter storm to impact the region Wednesday night into Friday. This system has the potential to bring significant accumulating snow. Details in forecast track and exact amounts are still emerging at this time. A more northern track could also bring the possibility of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We take Let's see the kutchie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Output of GFS, CMC and Euro Ops look remarkably similar now for this range after being quite divergent. And worth noting the Euro is the farthest NW now out of the 3 after being the farthest SE last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Let's see the kutchie 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'd imagine some pretty strong ne winds south of ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Eps shifted nw as one would expect following that Op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 50 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Ah yes, the old “ya gotta smell the taint” deal… Gotta do more than smell it if you really want the goods! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Gotta do more than smell it if you really want the goods! Whatever it takes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: Whatever it takes!!! Dam you are a snow whore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 22 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Had some fun digging out a cross section view of the snow pack with the kids. Can see two distinct icy layers in the pack. From the top down it’s 2.5” snow, .5” icy layer, 3.5” snow, 1.0” icy layer 2.5” snow. 10” total snow depth. Took a core and letting it melt down to see what the water content shows. 10” OTG melted down to 1.8” liquid. That thicker sleet layer took forever to finally melt. Another 2”+ of liquid possible this week which even if it starts as rain will easily absorb into this pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Eps shifted nw as one would expect following that Op run. This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is… With this type of set up and @tombo82685 commentary - at this range I would rather it be a bit NW than SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: I'd imagine some pretty strong ne winds south of ontario? Won’t matter if it’s warm, at least as far as enhancement goes. It would matter with the suppressed scenario. I just remember all these anafrontal storms screwing us bad. Hopefully we get some south ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 TOMBO and NWS seem to like colder. Which is a relief. My gut is screaming otherwise but my gut does have the best record. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is… Looks good for Buffalo and that's all that matters 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 hours ago, 96blizz said: What makes this forum so great is that we all know eventually we’re going to get snow. It’s like being some really handsome guy that knows even if a pretty girl rejects him, he will get the next one… Except for @TugHillMatt, of course. He is stuck with the 3’s and 4’s at closing time… 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m thinking a warm February is as likely as TugHill winning the golden snowball I try to hide in the background for a bit and somebody "mentions" me. I am glad to see my cynicism and blathering of the Tughillory Curse provide entertainment for our subforum. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Speaking of which....there is always one model that shows it...every run... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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