TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cmc 18z still here. 3.7 at officially at 1pm in rochester. That looks exactly like the storms we USED to get in the East. Whatever happened to Lows running along the Apps? Now they run for Jamestown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs would be major les event for Buffalo metro. 24-30 hours of stationary band. Euro switches the wind direction pretty quickly leaving a marginal event with quick moving bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: That looks exactly like the storms we USED to get in the East. Whatever happened to Lows running along the Apps? Now they run for Jamestown. Remember alot of these in the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pronounced cold advection around the south side of a trowal is evident across WNY by early Thursday morning. H85 temperatures drop like a rock into the -12 to -14C range through the day with large scale moisture secluding in the surface to 850 hPa layer around the trowal and over Lake Erie. Soundings suggest impressive lake induced instability, some synoptic moisture remaining, and a fetch of the entire lake to work with through the day Thursday. Likewise, GFS and Canadian Global wind fields favor confluent flow down the length of the lake with a long axis of the lake band likely to come into WNY somewhere near Buffalo for at least a solid portion of the day Thursday. This is the time to watch for potential significant lake effect snow accumulations in the metro Buffalo area. The same things can be said for the Watertown area on the east end of Lake Ontario...just lagging about 6 hours. Wind fields wobble a bit Thursday night and suggest a bit of a southward amble of both lake bands. This occurs while the next wave is set to move through the Great Lake. The GFS is far deeper and faster with the mid-level reflection of this system than the Canadian and ECMWF. In fact, the 12z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian really indicate little variation on the track of the surface low with this system to our southeast Thursday night and Friday as is moves from eastern Kentucky toward the NYC area. This places our area solidly on the cold side of this system, however the best deformation and attendant ascent remains to the SE of the area. As such, PoPs were increased to likely for snow during this time, however the best forcing/accumulations will likely pass to our SE. Further, the GFS really does almost nothing with this system, and it in fact doesn`t even develop the wave until it passes off shore. Another period of lake effect snow showers follows the Thursday night and Friday system before large scale troughing starts to erode over the region. This signifies moderation of the cold air by next weekend in advance of the next system to affect the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Gfs would be major les event for Buffalo metro. 24-30 hours of stationary band. Euro switches the wind direction pretty quickly leaving a marginal event with quick moving bands. Well the GFS did sniff out the flatter wave first for this event we just had so I’m holding out hope it’s correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Remember alot of these in the 90s. Exactly. I was even going to say 90s. Very common track then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Well the GFS did sniff out the flatter wave first for this event we just had so I’m holding out hope it’s correct. Last few frames of rgem are similar to euro so I wouldn’t get your hopes up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Rochester has average snow for season if we where in same location as Cleveland. Smh. 17.9 inches should be at 32 or so. Hope we overcome. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 @Syrmax and @CNY_WX, what do you think our odds are that the grass will be completely covered in this area by next weekend? I actually considered starting a poll on this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Remember alot of these in the 90s. Growing up in CT in the 90s, I remember a lot of those storms where we were sweating the mix and rain line. CNY/WNY must have really cashed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: Growing up in CT in the 90s, I remember a lot of those storms where we were sweating the mix and rain line. CNY/WNY must have really cashed in. Yep! That's how it was where I lived in Lancaster, PA. Now the line is the whole way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This should be an excellent setup. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last few frames of rgem are similar to euro so I wouldn’t get your hopes up yet I’m not. But when the NWS puts it in the HWO and local stations are bringing it up already, I’d say that’s a good signal…I also like the post from LEK right above me with optimism as well… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Even cmc shows the lake effect for buffalo. It just the upper air pattern is diffrent between the 2 for next system. Pretty high confidence level buffalo gets hit decent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Check the lake response off Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: This should be an excellent setup. Lek coming in with the Jedi post. Now @Thinksnow18isnt going to sleep well rest of the week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Check the lake response off Huron Utilizing entire lake, there is no ice anywhere on Huron which is rare into January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Roc snowfall in the 1940s. Its a pattern up and down. My guess driven bye pacific patterns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Utilizing entire lake, there is no ice anywhere on Huron which is rare into January. Yes isn’t that a bit odd We’re not getting the same off Erie and Ontario??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 80s where crap too. I remember green Christmas almost every year as a kid. Vaugley remember leap day storm in 84 32 inches of lake snow in rochester. Almost sure someone in county saw over 40 near lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 100 year type storm here. Last one kinda similar was in March 1999 with back to back blizzards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: @Syrmax and @CNY_WX, what do you think our odds are that the grass will be completely covered in this area by next weekend? I actually considered starting a poll on this. lol Completely covered? Blade tips showing? 33%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just got a look at 18Z GEM. I would hand draw that run. 0% chance of happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Just got a look at 18Z GEM. I would hand draw that run. 0% chance of happening What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: @Syrmax and @CNY_WX, what do you think our odds are that the grass will be completely covered in this area by next weekend? I actually considered starting a poll on this. lol 10:1 with an over/under of 1 1/2 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Much colder air following the passage of a strong cold front Wednesday afternoon will bring about the possibility of accumulating lake snows to the Buffalo Metro area Wednesday evening into Thursday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 18Z GEM has about 26 hour stationary band, pretty good sized synoptic storm and then run ends but looks like LES continues with meadering winds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I think that is the 12z..It says 12GMT which would be 7am(12z) eastern..The 18z I have only goes out to HR 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think that is the 12z..It says 12GMT which would be 7am(12z) eastern..The 18z I have only goes out to HR 84.. Think 18z goes to 120. I posted a frame at top of page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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