BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 0z gefs not nearly as cutterish as 12z/18z. Several heavy hitters in the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Sleet storm? No thanks Looks like sleet/snow mix with over 2.0 of liquid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The systems this season...outside of Western NY, we need the ridge to flatten out a bit. The bands of snow have consistently been on a trajectory that tilts at a 45 degree or greater angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Honestly, the one F”””ING week I have to go to Lake Placid? I happened to be working in Buffalo the last big LES event and now I have to drive my family through the Dacks Thursday AM. Appreciate any insight y’all can offer in terms of timing…I lurk and admire but this round, would appreciate any guidance. TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro continues to shift SE. Decent snowfall south of i-90 with little to no mixed precip anywhere... just ra/sn verbatim. Before long it'll look like the UK and mostly hit south of the forum. Stuck @129 hours on WB and PW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro continues to shift SE. Decent snowfall south of i-90 with little to no mixed precip anywhere... just ra/sn verbatim. Before long it'll look like the UK and mostly hit south of the forum. Stuck @129 hours on WB and PW. Looks very odd. Usually don't have 500 mile wide area of snow of 6 inches with basically a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 So, it's either southern edge and get a few inches or it's northern edge and get a few inches. Got it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 59 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro continues to shift SE. Decent snowfall south of i-90 with little to no mixed precip anywhere... just ra/sn verbatim. Before long it'll look like the UK and mostly hit south of the forum. Stuck @129 hours on WB and PW. Ensembles out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ensamble mean from euro. Much difftent from op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Eps mean shifted a little SE as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Forgot to post the CMC Ensembles earlier. Also shifted SE. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Big time bust on lows this am. Minus 6 here in roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 06z gfs looks like a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6z GFS. Lock it in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Not 1 model had this this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Track of the GEFS low seems to mirror the Op and another tick SE. No big jump as of now and looks like the Euro (not Op) and CMC ensembles. I don’t have weatherbell for GEFS snow maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 52 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Track of the GEFS low seems to mirror the Op and another tick SE. No big jump as of now and looks like the Euro (not Op) and CMC ensembles. I don’t have weatherbell for GEFS snow maps. You can get them for free from the COD website. Still a bit too far NW for those outside of the BUF-ROC-ART corridor.(You can find all the individual ensembles as well.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You can get them for free from the COD website. Still a bit too far NW for those outside of the BUF-ROC-ART corridor.(You can find all the individual ensembles as well.) Thank you. I like the look given where the Ukie and Euro ops are. For now, the blend is our friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Not 1 model had this this morning. ARW had this on both runs yesterday. That models has been great at picking up the sneaky little streamers this year. Always goes way overboard on QPF and snowfall output but generally does a great job with band recognition and placement. It was the only model to really pickup on that meso low event off Ontario a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Thank you. I like the look given where the Ukie and Euro ops are. For now, the blend is our friend. Small nudges to the S and E over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: ARW had this on both runs yesterday. That models has been great at picking up the sneaky little streamers this year. Always goes way overboard on QPF and snowfall output but generally does a great job with band recognition and placement. It was the only model to really pickup on that meso low event off Ontario a couple days ago. Actually roc did get over 3 inches Friday into sat am. And it was showing 3 to 5 in area so yeah these meso models are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hit a low -16.8° @ 7:19. Currently -9.6°. So over this nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6z Euro was bit nw of 0z at 90 hour end time. Finally stopped the SE bleed this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z Euro was bit nw of 0z at 90 hour end time. Finally stopped the SE bleed this run. 6z eps also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6z eps has alot of good hits for most of the forum. Better track angle too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z eps Just wanted to say thank you for constantly and consistently posting these maps for the forum!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z eps I’m adding to 96Blizz’s comment: from a fellow southern tierian (work in Binghamton, live in NW Delaware County), thank you for all the informative posts! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z eps has alot of good hits for most of the forum. Better track angle too. You rock bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Uncertainty remains with system that impacts region Wednesday into Thursday. Cold front slowly eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of rain/snow changing to mainly snow by Wednesday evening. Some snow accumulation is likely especially western NY to North Country late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Beyond this is where the uncertainty increases, just as higher PWATs and heavier QPF lifts in from the Gulf of Mexico. In a nutshell, ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles continue to trend colder and really more suppressed with the overall system with little if any chance of anything other than snow. Heaviest snow would be south and east of our area though. GFS and GFS ensemble members are farther northwest, but even this solution would not bring warmer slug of air aloft and resulting wintry mix (mainly sleet or freezing rain) back into the picture until later Thursday into Thursday night as stronger wave lifts along the primary frontal boundary. Main item to watch here is not really the sfc low, but rather the H85 low and warm tongue aloft which tracks more over western NY to the North Country before colder air comes crashing back in by Friday morning. Canadian operational is like the farther northwest GFS, but its ensembles are more in line with suppressed ECMWF idea. So again, a lot of uncertainty and expect the details with the forecast to continue to change as we work into early this week. Given the deep moisture that this system will have to work with, high impact winter weather, likely mainly from a snow standpoint, could occur. Some ice could occur as well though. So, stay tuned. For the forecast, generally kept the flavor of the previous forecast in terms of pops/weather, but leaning toward the ECMWF trend, kept a zone of wintry mix (snow, sleet and freezing rain) across Southern Tier to western Finger Lakes and removed the mention of plain rain out of the forecast anywhere in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 No Sizzle at KSYZzle this a.m. my abode hit -14F, still -5F but recovering. Bone dry, at least the arctic cold kept the snow away. No need to dig out this morning. Who needs that crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now