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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Honestly, the one F”””ING week I have to go to Lake Placid?  I happened to be working in Buffalo the last big LES event and now I have to drive my family through the Dacks Thursday AM.  Appreciate any insight y’all can offer in terms of timing…I lurk and admire but this round, would appreciate any guidance.  
 

TY

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18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro continues to shift SE. Decent snowfall south of i-90 with little to no mixed precip anywhere... just ra/sn verbatim. Before long it'll look like the UK and mostly hit south of the forum.

Stuck @129 hours on WB and PW.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3965200.thumb.png.de19b1c831ff2dbe648685169147d2f6.pngecmwf-deterministic-east-snow_72hr-3965200.thumb.png.eb0981abbc19b3c706055799d24f9684.pngecmwf-deterministic-nystate-snow_72hr-3965200.thumb.png.e3b5ff368a22e14849bff3642a0aab75.pngecmwf-deterministic-nystate-total_precip_ptype_fourpanel-3965200.thumb.png.da92cbf570bd2c02b63b7167fb667c48.png

Looks very odd. Usually don't have 500 mile wide area of snow of 6 inches with basically a cold front

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52 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Track of the GEFS low seems to mirror the Op and another tick SE.  No big jump as of now and looks like the Euro (not Op) and CMC ensembles. I don’t have weatherbell for GEFS snow maps. 

47808E4F-13F0-4D18-B29B-7B4540B4D03A.png

You can get them for free from the COD website. Still a bit too far NW for those outside of the BUF-ROC-ART corridor.(You can find all the individual ensembles as well.)

image.png.2312d0a35392decdedd08406d11a2033.png

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You can get them for free from the COD website. Still a bit too far NW for those outside of the BUF-ROC-ART corridor.(You can find all the individual ensembles as well.)

image.png.2312d0a35392decdedd08406d11a2033.png

Thank you. I like the look given where the Ukie and Euro ops are. 
For now, the blend is our friend. 

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1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Not 1 model had this this morning. 

Screenshot_20220130-051739_Samsung Internet.jpg

ARW had this on both runs yesterday.  That models has been great at picking up the sneaky little streamers this year.  Always goes way overboard on QPF and snowfall output but generally does a great job with band recognition and placement.  It was the only model to really pickup on that meso low event off Ontario a couple days ago.  

 

9995E1E1-9DD9-41B6-95CD-980F3E38FF5D.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

ARW had this on both runs yesterday.  That models has been great at picking up the sneaky little streamers this year.  Always goes way overboard on QPF and snowfall output but generally does a great job with band recognition and placement.  It was the only model to really pickup on that meso low event off Ontario a couple days ago.  

 

9995E1E1-9DD9-41B6-95CD-980F3E38FF5D.jpeg

Actually roc did get over 3 inches Friday into sat am. And it was showing 3 to 5 in area so yeah these meso models are pretty good.

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Uncertainty remains with system that impacts region Wednesday into
Thursday.

Cold front slowly eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of
rain/snow changing to mainly snow by Wednesday evening. Some snow
accumulation is likely especially western NY to North Country late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Beyond this is where the uncertainty
increases, just as higher PWATs and heavier QPF lifts in from the
Gulf of Mexico.

In a nutshell, ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles continue to trend colder
and really more suppressed with the overall system with little if
any chance of anything other than snow. Heaviest snow would be south
and east of our area though. GFS and GFS ensemble members are
farther northwest, but even this solution would not bring warmer
slug of air aloft and resulting wintry mix (mainly sleet or freezing
rain) back into the picture until later Thursday into Thursday night
as stronger wave lifts along the primary frontal boundary. Main item
to watch here is not really the sfc low, but rather the H85 low and
warm tongue aloft which tracks more over western NY to the North
Country before colder air comes crashing back in by Friday morning.
Canadian operational is like the farther northwest GFS, but its
ensembles are more in line with suppressed ECMWF idea. So again, a
lot of uncertainty and expect the details with the forecast to
continue to change as we work into early this week. Given the deep
moisture that this system will have to work with, high impact winter
weather, likely mainly from a snow standpoint, could occur. Some
ice could occur as well though. So, stay tuned.

For the forecast, generally kept the flavor of the previous forecast
in terms of pops/weather, but leaning toward the ECMWF trend, kept a
zone of wintry mix (snow, sleet and freezing rain) across Southern
Tier to western Finger Lakes and removed the mention of plain rain
out of the forecast anywhere in our area.
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