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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year.

this is a MODIS image

The sat over Ontario seems to be drying up. Some sunny breaks here now, but got a fluffy inch or so.

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big changes amongst the 29/12Z guidance packages in regards to p-
type and the eventual track of the sfc low.

Cold front eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of
rain/snow. After that it`s all up in the air to what happens.

ECMWF guidance...has gone even colder with this update and has
significantly pushed the track of the sfc low well to our ESE of the
region. This would mean an all snow for the event but would also
shift the heavier snowfall amounts almost out of our area. Canadian-
NH...it too is colder but not quite as aggressive with the ESE push
of the sfc low. GFS guidance...this is the warmer solution and has
maintained the track of the sfc low through the Ohio Valley NE
across Western and North Central NY. That said, the GFS track is
also "NOT" climatologically favorable but it can`t be rule out
either. The key to this event will likely be the timing and then
eventual placement of the 850 hPa thermal boundary. Way too early to
know exactly where it sets up or even stalls...if it does at all
(see..ECMWF). So with this update (low confidence)...have again
leaned on a blend of all solutions to get a middle of the road
picture. Lots can and will likely change between now and the
Wednesday evening through Thursday night time frame.

Friday and beyond, it looks fairly straight forward with a colder
air mass filtering into the region. There will also likely be some
accumulating lake snows ESE of the lakes which then slowly diminish
over the weekend.
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Had some fun digging out a cross section view of the snow pack with the kids.  Can see two distinct icy layers in the pack.  From the top down it’s 2.5” snow, .5” icy layer, 3.5” snow, 1.0” icy layer 2.5” snow.  10” total snow depth.  Took a core and letting it melt down to see what the water content shows.  

708D1F60-3D02-4CAB-9C27-0D360668759A.jpeg

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How bad was it up there?

I was living in Toronto at the time, so we could just got grazed, before it turned to rain. It was really bad in Kingston and Ottawa, though. People out of power for days. 

Toronto's big ice storm was on December 21, 2013. Without power for three days. Great photo opportunities, though.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year.

this is a MODIS image

Part of me wants this cold to keep going.  I’ve been hawking the ice fisherman to see if they have started to venture out any further than the inner harbor yet.  Had this crazy idea about taking a hike to the outer break wall.  I don’t even know if it’s possible to safely walk out that far.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

They haven't been... BUT there is always one model or set that is NW when it comes to us getting rain/ice or snow.... and that NW model or set always ends up verifying. When was the last time we actually had the southernmost model actually come to fruition in our favor???

get your shovel ready

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