tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So you're going with closer to a Ukie look with us in between the best of both systems? I just think models will start catching up on that cold press. That’s a big man high pushing on that front. Unless piece of the tpv really phases in I’m not buying the stationary front with waves riding up it. I think it’s the frontal precip then thermal bndry goes south then final wave rides that bndry Not sure how far south that second wave goes. But would not shock me if it goes to i95 or cuse to bgm hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: I just think models will start catching up on that cold press. That’s a big man high pushing on that front. Unless piece of the tpv really phases in I’m not buying the stationary front with waves riding up it. I think it’s the frontal precip then front comes through for final wave. Not sure how far south that second wave goes. But would not shock me if it goes to i95 or cuse to bgm hit. Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Tom, what maps do you look at for the polar vortex? The 500 vorticity? And do you look at the inner core or the outer ring(if that makes sense?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol Do I. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Tuesdays run of the GFS vs todays same timestamp. Only a 44 degree difference over 3 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol Yea I remember rochesterdave posting all those 11 day gfs maps and I said ens look way different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tom, what maps do you look at for the polar vortex? The 500 vorticity? And do you look at the inner core or the outer ring(if that makes sense?) Any h5 map shows it. This is h5 anom map. Can see the southern s/w then tpv up in central Canada. Can see the piece of energy rotating around tpv that is what gfs phases in and what would promote a stronger cutter and se ridge. Euro keeps pieces disconnected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Now that's what you call a light wind lol Be lucky to make it to pulaski 5 miles inland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yea I remember rochesterdave posting all those 11 day gfs maps and I said ens look way different The ENS looked nearly as warm though. NWS wouldn't forecast a high above 40 for 3 straight days unless the models/ENS showed it around here. The ENS can change pretty drastically too. The GEFS for the storm we got hit with were all showing max snowfall far SE, they were absolutely terrible for that storm and the OP won out. They were hundreds of miles off within a few days time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 CIPS analogs. I like the look http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F132&rundt=2022012912&map=thbCOOP72 This would be a good one 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Tea kettle type band over mid lake will head toward eastern shore late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The ultimate landing spot for this band on eastern shore of Lake Ontario will be highly dictated by weak wind field/mesoscale processes that are hard to determine yet. But, if that band comes onshore, potential is there for several inches of fluffy snow due to strong low-level convergence helped out by overall weak convergence as the clipper moves through and also a favorable profile with lake EQLs up to 8kft and good portion of the lake convective layer in the DGZ. SLRs could only be increased due to the light winds. Using output from the Canadian-regional and NAM increased snow amounts toward Jefferson and Oswego county border, but didn`t extend this too far inland with the light winds. Some hint that passage of trough could shove this band back more over southeast shore of Lake Ontario late Sunday night or it may just dissolve as winds become variable and eventually push it back across the open waters of the lake into Monday morning. Meantime, off Lake Erie with sw flow, temps plenty cold enough at top of inversion and still enough open water, there could be a few snow showers impacting Buffalo Metro at times Sun night into Monday morning, though nothing really shows near as much as the activity east of Lake Ontario. Away from the lake effect Sun and Sun night it will be not as cold with highs on Sun in the 20s and lows in the single digits Sun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: How bad was it up there? It was really bad. Some places had no power for a month, with temperatures in the -20’sF. Insane tree damage, it was surreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The ENS looked nearly as warm though. NWS wouldn't forecast a high above 40 for 3 straight days unless the models/ENS showed it around here. The ENS can change pretty drastically too. The GEFS for the storm we got hit with were all showing max snowfall far SE, they were absolutely terrible for that storm and the OP won out. They were hundreds of miles off within a few days time. That’s the gefs day 12 for this coming Thursday that’s barely abv normal https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2022012212&fh=318 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That’s the gefs day 12 for this coming Thursday that’s barely abv normal https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2022012212&fh=318 A few days after, closer to the event they were pretty warm though. From Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: A few days after, closer to the event they were pretty warm though. From Tuesday. Yea that’s a torch. But what I’m saying is when Dave was posting that they weren’t in agreement with a torch yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z Think you’re seeing what I’m saying. Instead of front stalled and same areas getting hit, it’s more progressive spreading wealth out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Yea that’s a torch. But what I’m saying is when Dave was posting that they weren’t in agreement with a torch yet Yeah I guess my point was Ensembles can make make some pretty big run to run changes. Obviously not as big as OP models can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z Some good trends there. Those are high totals for an EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On top of it, GEFS has a cold bias. And OP has performed much better this season. But I’m glad IF I’m wrong about the torch. We’ve had a pretty amplified winter. Still lots of scenarios in play. But headed in a better direction to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/ Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/ Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches That certainly is a derelict band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: That certainly is a derelict band. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/ Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches Surprised no march in top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Surprised no march in top 10 Pretty interesting that 9 of 10 are within a 25-day period from late Jan-mid Feb. Obviously the climatologically favored timeframe for a whopper (HECS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 That April 1 at top 3 is truly impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: That April 1 at top 3 is truly impressive Agreed. Massive anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Surprised no march in top 10 Notice all the top snowfalls are contemporary years. So much for global warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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