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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

The 1998 ice storm brought down almost the entire electrical grid in the north country. This led to farmers having to milk their cows by hand then dumping the milk since they couldn’t get it picked up. So just remember how destructive these storms can be. 

The same can be said of hurricanes and tornadoes but posters on here chase them from all over the country. We don't control the weather, it just happens. The October snowstorm of 2006 took down 70% of the trees in Buffalo and we didn't have power for 2 weeks, but you wouldn't see anyone on here posting about hoping for less snow for that event.

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Cuse to bgm ftw this run?

This whole setup looks like a thread the needle job and whoever gets the goods should feel very fortunate. Very delicate balance between a semi-cutter and flatter more suppressed wave. I'd expect alot of volatility in the models for at least a few days until all these different players get sorted out.

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5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Precip comes in two waves? First rain. Second snow. Or dry. IDK. Complicated for sure. If the main LP rides the first, like GFS, we screwed. 

Yea gfs puts all its money in phasing the two. Not sure I buy that. Those tpv pieces of energy are tough to phase due to how fast they move. Timing has to be just right. I’m betting more progressive imo right now 

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Just now, BGM Blizzard said:

This whole setup looks like a thread the needle job and whoever gets the goods should feel fortunate. Very delicate balance between a semi-cutter and flatter more suppressed wave. I'd expect alot of volatility in the models for a few days at least until all these different players get sorted out.

Yup. That’s how these anafrontal waves work. Thin ribbon of success

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1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

This whole setup looks like a thread the needle job and whoever gets the goods should feel very fortunate. Very delicate balance between a semi-cutter and flatter more suppressed wave. I'd expect alot of volatility in the models for a few days at least until all these different players get sorted out.

My emotional health isn’t up for it. Ski trip already stressful enough. Why does it feel we are always threading the needle. I’m getting on the clipper bandwagon. Give me 2-4” or nothing instead of these volatile synoptic things. 

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol. It's either north and Cuse rains or it's south and we downslope. Always something to minimize amounts. Canadian, please.

"Ok" on Euro.

image.thumb.png.41a79aef3531255e3ec474737ac7e89c.png

I don't think it's much downsloping, low level winds are N/NW not NE..I think it's more we just miss the heaviest off to the south with the"main" wave..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (92).png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (93).png

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