Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Some nice lake effect fluff this am in walworth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground. We had about 1” last night from the cold front or something, and about 1/2” this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground. At the last observation from the Albany airport the visibility was down to 1 mile so decent snow has made it that far north and west. Looks like they could get 1-3, 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 54 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So many burns. The pessimism cones when the same thing happens over and over again. It is looking great for Buffalo to Watertown again. Living on the edge here. I considered contacting Constantine... The event is still 5-6 days away so now is not the time to be pessimistic. The talk last night was there was more likelihood that the cold air and TPV (there, I got to use it) would push the baroclinic zone south. Let’s hope it stays just south of us and we get predominantly frozen precipitation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 For next week .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Brief reprieve from the cold and a period of active weather still on track. Trend that keeps showing up, now even in the ECMWF guidance, is a quicker return to cold and possible snow as early as Thursday. MOS guidance from GFS and ECMWF look pretty similar on Thursday now, at least over western NY. Still time to sort this all out though as there will likely be changes as this system is still over the Gulf of Alaska. On Tuesday, sfc low pressure crosses Ontario and James Bay. Warm front ahead of this may generate a few rain showers late as highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s (warmest calender day since Jan 19th). Cold front arriving later Tuesday night could also produce a few rain/snow showers. Cold front eases across into Wednesday. Broad jet in strong southwest flow aloft and Gulf of Mexico moisture coming into play will result in precip spreading along inverted trough over deep south toward the cold front that is in our region. Low-level thermal gradient overhead, so will carry a mix of rain/snow. Best chance of only snow will be over far western NY and across the North Country. Some snow accumulation could occur in these areas starting late Wednesday. Uncertainty increases into Wednesday night and Thursday, though one trend that is showing up is colder with better chance for snow on Thursday, especially western NY and North Country as low-level thermal gradient continues to trend farther east and southeast. Ptype in forecast is simple for now, just rain and/or snow or a mix of both. Certainly possible additional frozen precip (fzra, sleet) could occur as well depending on depth of cold air and where warm layer will reside over that cooler air at the sfc. No matter what, Gulf of Mexico moisture will be streaming into our region, so this system will need to be watched as if ptype is wintry, could be higher impact system. At least right now it does seem that the warmer and wetter impacts (flooding, ice jams) we were looking at a few days ago are diminishing for our area. Time will tell if these trends hold or if the thermal gradient trends west again. It could. Once this system passes by, cue the return of more arctic air which will arrive across the Great Lakes and northeast by next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: At the last observation from the Albany airport the visibility was down to 1 mile so decent snow has made it that far north and west. Looks like they could get 1-3, 2-4 inches. Thats what I also thought looking at that ob. Some models kept ALB completely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 6z GFS went further NW, GEFS were similar to OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 45 minutes ago, tim123 said: Some nice lake effect fluff this am in walworth. Same here, nothing on radar though. Too bad there wasn't more moisture. IR satellite getting a bit more enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Same here, nothing on radar though. Too bad there wasn't more moisture. IR satellite getting a bit more enhanced. Yeah if that east coast storm was 150 miles farther west would have been some good lake snow. Better background moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 A lot of "Non-living" Band references to our east. Imagine being on a forum that not only condones but celebrates such behavior. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Wpc Thursday morning and weekly precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Light-moderate snow has been occurring for most of the morning here which is quite a surprise. A new coating has been laid down in the last hour and we probably snow for another 3-4 hours to probably pull 3-4" for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Went down to the Albany/Guilderland area and it was snowing surprisingly well. Seemed to pick up once you cross the Mohawk River. Probably a solid inch. Overperformer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wpc Thursday morning and weekly precipitation.. Hmmm D1BPVAhWsAAEY26.mp4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Boston bout to get crushed.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Sun up! Should get a nice view of the ice on Lake Erie today. Can already see the central basin icing up and slowly constricting the two remaining open water pools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Boston bout to get crushed.. That ***** band in E-CT and NW-RI has just been sitting there all morning. There's going to be some impressive totals coming out of there. That other band screaming in off Cape Cod might merge with it too. Northeast CT is pretty quiet, so I don't know how many reports we'll get out of there, but glad to see the Groton/New London area doing well. They were always the snow hole of CT when I was growing up in the western hills. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Map looks good to me. Tough to predict the banding structures in quickly developing storms. That band in NE conn has been stuck there for hours. Thinking someone there and along the shorelines of Mass end up with 30"+ West of Providence, its locked in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 70mph with 1/4SM +SN at ACK Now thats a blizzard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 70mph with 1/4SM +SN at ACK Now thats a blizzard. Wow! I'm almost glad I'm not in that. Experiencing a snowstorm where we can go back into a safe warm house is nice. Losing power, with possible property damage in near hurricane force winds is a little scary. That's the stuff that ye olde fisherman tales of yore are made of down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Stash said: Wow! I'm almost glad I'm not in that. Experiencing a snowstorm where we can go back into a safe warm house is nice. Losing power, with possible property damage in near hurricane force winds is a little scary. That's the stuff that ye olde fisherman tales of yore are made of down there. I can't lie I wish I was smack dab in the middle of that. I'd rather go out chasing a crazy snowstorm than old and in a hospital bed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Boston bout to get crushed.. Yeah my friends place in SECT is under that further west band now and it's delivering. About 6" o.g. there so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can't lie I wish I was smack dab in the middle of that. I'd rather go out chasing a crazy snowstorm than old and in a hospital bed. That's not pixie dust falling either. Temps are in the 30's down there right now. That must be pure cement getting blown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, Stash said: That ***** band in E-CT and NW-RI has just been sitting there all morning. There's going to be some impressive totals coming out of there. That other band screaming in off Cape Cod might merge with it too. Northeast CT is pretty quiet, so I don't know how many reports we'll get out of there, but glad to see the Groton/New London area doing well. They were always the snow hole of CT when I was growing up in the western hills. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can't lie I wish I was smack dab in the middle of that. I'd rather go out chasing a crazy snowstorm than old and in a hospital bed. I was very surprised at the snow totals reported from CC this a.m. on CoCoRAHS. Quite low. But I'm still confident that my 16.5" contest 4cast for HYA won't be too far off. Big upside miss potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 41 minutes ago, Syrmax said: A lot of "Non-living" Band references to our east. Imagine being on a forum that not only condones but celebrates such behavior. ... More like a derelict band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground. Already seeing reports of 3' drifts that look more like half that much. This is getting near the part of the storm which really produces the best virtual results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 6z GFS went further NW, GEFS were similar to OP 6z eps more progressive as less of phase so northern stream shoots out ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: 06Z GFS and Icon are North and West again. I can already see the writing on the wall. I am going to step out and avoid typing too much this weekend to save you guys from my frustration. I will be browsing though. Have a great weekend, all! I think you will snow in this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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