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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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31 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 

10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground.

At the last observation from the Albany airport the visibility was down to 1 mile so decent snow has made it that far north and west. Looks like they could get 1-3, 2-4 inches. 

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54 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So many burns. The pessimism cones when the same thing happens over and over again. It is looking great for Buffalo to Watertown again. Living on the edge here.

I considered contacting Constantine... :P

 

The event is still 5-6 days away so now is not the time to be pessimistic. The talk last night was there was more likelihood that the cold air and TPV (there, I got to use it) would push the baroclinic zone south. Let’s hope it stays just south of us and we get predominantly frozen precipitation. 

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For next week

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief reprieve from the cold and a period of active weather still on
track. Trend that keeps showing up, now even in the ECMWF guidance,
is a quicker return to cold and possible snow as early as Thursday.
MOS guidance from GFS and ECMWF look pretty similar on Thursday
now, at least over western NY. Still time to sort this all out
though as there will likely be changes as this system is still
over the Gulf of Alaska.

On Tuesday, sfc low pressure crosses Ontario and James Bay.
Warm front ahead of this may generate a few rain showers late as
highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s (warmest calender
day since Jan 19th). Cold front arriving later Tuesday night
could also produce a few rain/snow showers. Cold front eases
across into Wednesday. Broad jet in strong southwest flow aloft
and Gulf of Mexico moisture coming into play will result in
precip spreading along inverted trough over deep south toward
the cold front that is in our region. Low-level thermal gradient
overhead, so will carry a mix of rain/snow. Best chance of only
snow will be over far western NY and across the North Country.
Some snow accumulation could occur in these areas starting late
Wednesday.

Uncertainty increases into Wednesday night and Thursday, though one
trend that is showing up is colder with better chance for snow on
Thursday, especially western NY and North Country as low-level
thermal gradient continues to trend farther east and southeast.
Ptype in forecast is simple for now, just rain and/or snow or a mix
of both. Certainly possible additional frozen precip (fzra, sleet)
could occur as well depending on depth of cold air and where warm
layer will reside over that cooler air at the sfc. No matter what,
Gulf of Mexico moisture will be streaming into our region, so this
system will need to be watched as if ptype is wintry, could be
higher impact system. At least right now it does seem that the
warmer and wetter impacts (flooding, ice jams) we were looking at a
few days ago are diminishing for our area. Time will tell if these
trends hold or if the thermal gradient trends west again. It
could. Once this system passes by, cue the return of more arctic
air which will arrive across the Great Lakes and northeast by
next weekend.

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17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

At the last observation from the Albany airport the visibility was down to 1 mile so decent snow has made it that far north and west. Looks like they could get 1-3, 2-4 inches. 

Thats what I also thought looking at that ob.  Some models kept ALB completely dry.

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Boston bout to get crushed..

WUNIDS_map - 2022-01-29T092823.130.gif

That ***** band in E-CT and NW-RI has just been sitting there all morning.  There's going to be some impressive totals coming out of there.  That other band screaming in off Cape Cod might merge with it too.  Northeast CT is pretty quiet, so I don't know how many reports we'll get out of there, but glad to see the Groton/New London area doing well.  They were always the snow hole of CT when I was growing up in the western hills.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

70mph with 1/4SM +SN at ACK

Now thats a blizzard. 

Wow!  I'm almost glad I'm not in that.  Experiencing a snowstorm where we can go back into a safe warm house is nice.  Losing power, with possible property damage in near hurricane force winds is a little scary.  That's the stuff that ye olde fisherman tales of yore are made of down there.  

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Just now, Stash said:

Wow!  I'm almost glad I'm not in that.  Experiencing a snowstorm where we can go back into a safe warm house is nice.  Losing power, with possible property damage in near hurricane force winds is a little scary.  That's the stuff that ye olde fisherman tales of yore are made of down there.  

I can't lie I wish I was smack dab in the middle of that. I'd rather go out chasing a crazy snowstorm than old and in a hospital bed. :lol:

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can't lie I wish I was smack dab in the middle of that. I'd rather go out chasing a crazy snowstorm than old and in a hospital bed. :lol:

That's not pixie dust falling either.  Temps are in the 30's down there right now.  That must be pure cement getting blown around.

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17 minutes ago, Stash said:

That ***** band in E-CT and NW-RI has just been sitting there all morning.  There's going to be some impressive totals coming out of there.  That other band screaming in off Cape Cod might merge with it too.  Northeast CT is pretty quiet, so I don't know how many reports we'll get out of there, but glad to see the Groton/New London area doing well.  They were always the snow hole of CT when I was growing up in the western hills.

Fact.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can't lie I wish I was smack dab in the middle of that. I'd rather go out chasing a crazy snowstorm than old and in a hospital bed. :lol:

I was very surprised at the snow totals reported from CC this a.m. on CoCoRAHS.  Quite low.  But I'm still confident that my 16.5" contest 4cast for HYA won't be too far off. Big upside miss potential.

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2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 

10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground.

Already seeing reports of 3' drifts that look more like half that much. This is getting near the part of the storm which really produces the best virtual results.  ;)

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

06Z GFS and Icon are North and West again. I can already see the writing on the wall. I am going to step out and avoid typing too much this weekend to save you guys from my frustration. I will be browsing though. Have a great weekend, all!

I think you will snow in this

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