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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Can see form the gfs, while the clipper didn't track far south, the s/w entering in the west didn't phase as strong as 18z and 12z. The trough was more pos tilted. Then you have the cold press from the tpv coming east north of the lakes. Its a true overunning pipeline of moisture 

I saw that clipper cruising a bit north and got nervous. It’s all so complex. I’m happy to see that HP pushing a lobe east and south throughout the event. Hope

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I saw that clipper cruising a bit north and got nervous. It’s all so complex. I’m happy to see that HP pushing a lobe east and south throughout the event. Hope

Yup, the northern stream energy not phasing as much with the ULL down in the baja compensated for that cause it stretched the trough more towards pos tilted 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah its pretty close to GFS through 120. Either way warm up canceled, next week should be fun!

I_nw_EST_2022012900_120.png

Looks like RN to backend SN for KSYR at this point but still way out there in time.   Doesn't really matter anymore here for season saving purposes that war has already been lost.  Maybe win a few skirmishes here and there.  Will be interesting to see models over next 6 days.  At least they won't be fighting complex thermodynamic processes ala the current system, so maybe a smoother ride?

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Looks like RN to backend SN for KSYR at this point but still way out there in time.   Doesn't really matter anymore here for season saving purposes that war has already been lost.  Maybe win a few skirmishes here and there.  Will be interesting to see models over next 6 days.  At least they won't be fighting complex thermodynamic processes ala the current system, so maybe a smoother ride?

Definitely

Bumpy Ride GIFs | Tenor

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00Z NAM close to taking away the football on this developing weekend ocean storm. NYC looks like 6" per NAM. My forecast for 4.5" at Norfolk is doomed. I knew it would be half that, just got hurried in the forecast.  I might be ok at DCA/IAD/BWR as warm temps have precluded much snow accumulation so far and i have them all around 2-3". 

 

NE has to be melting over the 0Z runs.

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