Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: New map cut totals by alit, looks much more realistic and probably still too high. I think this verified, at least at home in Clarence and out here at work in west falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the warmest frame on the GFS. @TugHillMatt your snowpack might be ok TWC (take it for it's worth..lol) has the highest temp here at 40 on Tuesday and then mid to upper 30s for two other days. I think their forecasts are GFS-generated? If we only get to 40 with maybe some light rain, I can see the snowpack doing ok. I see it has Syracuse on the very edge of getting some wintry weather. Hopefully it'll move farther SE and we can break this awful "Tughill curse" of always being on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Some changes in model consensus toward the mid and latter part of the work week with regards to the anticipated warmup. Next cold front either stalls over or just east of the area sometime Tuesday night or Wednesday bringing the chance of rain and snow showers with it. With the further eastward progression of the cold front and precipitation, high temps on Wednesday will be held down some from earlier thinking with mainly upper 30s to lower 40s. Model consensus has also shifted the track of the next low pressure system a bit further east, now taking it very near or right over NYS. This would not only bring likely chances for rain and snow, but also keep highs on Thursday from reaching no higher than the the 40s. Still plenty of uncertainty so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some of those seem way more Northwest of yesterday's runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NYC, what the NAM giveth it can taketh away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Rgem always does right by me lol Meanwhile a weakening Clipper type low moves into the central Great Lakes. This will cause winds to slowly back later Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure departs to the southeast and weak Clipper system slides by to our southwest during this time period. With 850Ts remaining well into the negative teens C, the combination of additional moisture associated with the weak surface low and an upper trough moving into the region will be enough to re- ignite the lake effect machine with lake effect snow showers developing east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday night. As winds continue to slowly back with time, lake effect snow showers will be directed northeast of the Lake Erie and east of Lake Ontario by Sunday afternoon. Lake effect snow will eventually locate itself northeast of Lake Ontario as well by later Sunday night into Monday morning before activity off both lakes dissipates as main upper level trough axis moves east of our area and winds shift to the south bringing in warmer air aloft. There will likely be at least minor accumulations associated with the lake bands, however exact timing, strength and placement are still somewhat in question at this time. Weak flow will also limit the inland extent of the bands. Outside of the main lake effect activity, mainly dry conditions are expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nail-biter. Just hoping we can get a nice NE flow off the lake for some fluff. I have family just north of Bangor so I'll get some good reports from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NYC, what the NAM giveth it can taketh away That model waivers 200 miles each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 In-laws down in Monmouth county NJ have a blizzard warning.. Not an all timer but solid event, at least for there... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections of Sussex County in Delaware. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down Saturday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: Nail-biter. Just hoping we can get a nice NE flow off the lake for some fluff. I have family just north of Bangor so I'll get some good reports from them. Snowing nice and steady in east rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 BOS: You guys driving there are gonna some have fun. Thankfully this is happening on a Sat so people will be home. ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 24 inches. Winds gusting up to 60 mph, possibly as high as 70 mph at times across Cape Ann, coastal Plymouth county, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard. * WHERE...Portions of eastern, northeastern and southeastern Massachusetts. * WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...considerable blowing and drifting snow along with near white out conditions at times. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is possible at times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Some nice fluff bombs here right now. Might eek out an inch from this arctic front before going into the freezer again. Hooray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1.8" as of 830 a.m. the nickel and dining continues.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: In-laws down in Monmouth county NJ have a blizzard warning.. Not an all timer but solid event, at least for there... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections of Sussex County in Delaware. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down Saturday afternoon. Where I grew up and my Dad is still there in my childhood home in Belford NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Some of those seem way more Northwest of yesterday's runs? A tad NW yes. Still a long way out so it can go anywhere from Northern Michigan to New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like two distinct camps. One NW and the other gives us a shot. I’m with Tughillory, it looks a bit worse than last nights. But close 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wrfs give south shore 3 to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Where I grew up and my Dad is still there in my childhood home in Belford NJ. Nice man, I remember you telling me you grew up in Monmouth..I used to walk the Henry Hudson trail in that area..In-laws live in freehold but I grew up in Jackson and Staten island.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nice man, I remember you telling me you grew up in Monmouth..I used to walk the Henry Hudson trail in that area..In-laws live in freehold but I grew up in Jackson and Staten island.. My parents were from Great Kills in Staten Island. I played golf in high school and college and love Metedeconk in Jackson. Good stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 @lakeeffectkid383 Your place in westerly would be perfect for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 This storm has been fascinating to track from a model front. RGEM just went way SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Lake effect off Michigan into chicago this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect off Michigan into chicago this morning Definitely heavier on the north side - Loyola: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So icon sends one wave over us and fringes us with the next lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So icon sends one wave over us and fringes us with the next lol I mean it's a week away....but it would epitomize this winter: A Low from Jamestown to Syracuse and then one missing us to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So icon sends one wave over us and fringes us with the next lol GFS is very similar to the icon with the first low. Can we please get the front SOUTH of us? If it ends up stalling just to our north all week and Ontario gets all the snow again, I will indeed melt along with the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If we could just speed the front up a touch lol Still time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: If we could just speed the front up a touch lol Still time.. Lot of moisture pumping along that front. Could be nice. Could suck. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wny flips next frame, Thursday Eve fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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