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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is the warmest frame on the GFS. @TugHillMatt your snowpack might be ok

 

TWC (take it for it's worth..lol) has the highest temp here at 40 on Tuesday and then mid to upper 30s for two other days. I think their forecasts are GFS-generated? If we only get to 40 with maybe some light rain, I can see the snowpack doing ok. I see it has Syracuse on the very edge of getting some wintry weather. Hopefully it'll move farther SE and we can break this awful "Tughill curse" of always being on the edge.

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Some changes in model consensus toward the mid and latter part of
the work week with regards to the anticipated warmup. Next cold
front either stalls over or just east of the area sometime
Tuesday night or Wednesday bringing the chance of rain and snow
showers with it. With the further eastward progression of the
cold front and precipitation, high temps on Wednesday will be
held down some from earlier thinking with mainly upper 30s to
lower 40s. Model consensus has also shifted the track of the
next low pressure system a bit further east, now taking it very
near or right over NYS. This would not only bring likely chances
for rain and snow, but also keep highs on Thursday from
reaching no higher than the the 40s. Still plenty of uncertainty
so stay tuned.
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Rgem always does right by me lol

Meanwhile a weakening Clipper type low moves into the central Great
Lakes. This will cause winds to slowly back later Saturday night
through Sunday night as high pressure departs to the southeast and
weak Clipper system slides by to our southwest during this time
period. With 850Ts remaining well into the negative teens C, the
combination of additional moisture associated with the weak surface
low and an upper trough moving into the region will be enough to re-
ignite the lake effect machine with lake effect snow showers
developing east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday
night. As winds continue to slowly back with time, lake effect snow
showers will be directed northeast of the Lake Erie and east of Lake
Ontario by Sunday afternoon. Lake effect snow will eventually locate
itself northeast of Lake Ontario as well by later Sunday night into
Monday morning before activity off both lakes dissipates as main
upper level trough axis moves east of our area and winds shift to
the south bringing in warmer air aloft. There will likely be at
least minor accumulations associated with the lake bands, however
exact timing, strength and placement are still somewhat in question
at this time. Weak flow will also limit the inland extent of the
bands. Outside of the main lake effect activity, mainly dry
conditions are expected.

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-28T090728.810.png

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In-laws down in Monmouth county NJ have a blizzard warning.. Not an all timer but solid event, at least for there...

 

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections
  of Sussex County in Delaware.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday
  evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most
  likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through
  midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at
  or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down
  Saturday afternoon.
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BOS: You guys driving there are gonna some have fun. Thankfully this is happening on a Sat so people will be home.

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  18 to 24 inches. Winds gusting up to 60 mph, possibly as high
  as 70 mph at times across Cape Ann, coastal Plymouth county,
  Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern, northeastern and southeastern
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Very
  strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...considerable blowing and drifting snow
  along with near white out conditions at times. Snowfall rates of
  2 to 4 inches per hour is possible at times.
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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

In-laws down in Monmouth county NJ have a blizzard warning.. Not an all timer but solid event, at least for there...

 

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections
  of Sussex County in Delaware.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday
  evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most
  likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through
  midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at
  or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down
  Saturday afternoon.

Where I grew up and my Dad is still there in my childhood home in Belford NJ. 

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12 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Where I grew up and my Dad is still there in my childhood home in Belford NJ. 

Nice man, I remember you telling me you grew up in Monmouth..I used to walk the Henry Hudson trail in that area..In-laws live in freehold but I grew up in Jackson and Staten island..

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Nice man, I remember you telling me you grew up in Monmouth..I used to walk the Henry Hudson trail in that area..In-laws live in freehold but I grew up in Jackson and Staten island..

My parents were from Great Kills in Staten Island. I played golf in high school and college and love Metedeconk in Jackson.  Good stuff!

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17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

So icon sends one wave over us and fringes us with the next lol

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47 (2).png

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_58 (3).png

GFS is very similar to the icon with the first low. Can we please get the front SOUTH of us? If it ends up stalling just to our north all week and Ontario gets all the snow again, I will indeed melt along with the snow.

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