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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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You guys are also implying the GFS is correct lol The euro stalls the front to our west. 

This high pressure will slowly nudge eastward Tuesday - Thursday
with an initial cold front nearing our region Tuesday - Wednesday.
This front will stall, bringing low chances for rain showers Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, this as a much stronger surface low forms over
the Southern Plains.
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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

You guys are also implying the GFS is correct lol The euro stalls the front to our west. 

This high pressure will slowly nudge eastward Tuesday - Thursday
with an initial cold front nearing our region Tuesday - Wednesday.
This front will stall, bringing low chances for rain showers Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, this as a much stronger surface low forms over
the Southern Plains.

Yeah GEM is warm

gem_T2m_neus_28.png

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is the warmest frame on the GFS. @TugHillMatt your snowpack might be ok

gfs_T2m_neus_22.png

This is a huge change. I was watching 4 this morning and Mike showed the LR forecast and said tricky storm…I thought that’s gotta be a mistake it’s supposed to be an easy Rainer…nope… 6z gfs would be an ice storm and the euro a big hit snowstorm. That’s a big change and both models are on the same page with a shift of the LP south or just overhead. 

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1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Interesting trends overnight for the coastal, but probably game over for me seeing >6”

 

still, sneaking a nice advisory event would be fine even if it gets massively dwarfed by whatever maximums there are on LI and due east from there 

The 6z euro shifted west again. After March 2017 you keep watching coastals all the way to the finish line. 

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12 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

The 6z euro shifted west again. After March 2017 you keep watching coastals all the way to the finish line. 

One certainty is that ratios here far inland will be much better than on the coastlines. Longer duration light snow could totally still stack up a solid 4”+. The least BGM should, and probably would do, is issue advisories for the southeast counties (including mine) this afternoon 

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51 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

NYC Office put up its advisories over night and the OC is under a watch. Interested to see if this thing keeps coming west.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk
 

Going all the way to the wire, that’s for sure.  One thing is for sure: if you do pull 8”, I get 5”, and then 50-100 miles east of us doubles you and triples me I might not sleep well for the next week :lol:

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