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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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A cold south to southwest flow ahead an approaching cold front will
promote the development of lake snows northeast of both lakes early
this evening. Some shear and a cap averaging 5kft will initially
limit the ability of the lake snow response...but as winds back
from 220 to 240 during the course of the evening...the cap will
elevate a bit and a deep 5kft DGZ will be in place. This should
promote very efficient snow making in both the BUF and ART
metro areas for the first half of the night with snowfall rates
possibly exceeding an inch per hour.

By midnight...the flow will veer to about 260 which will push the
heart of the snowbands into the Buffalo Southtowns and towards the
Tug Hill. Rates will remain the same as described above but the
bands will now be more progressive. By daybreak...the steering flow
should be 290-300 with the heavier snows being pushed into the
Southern Tier and Oswego county respectively.

Winter weather advisories have been expanded to include Chautauqua
and southern Erie counties for the Lk Erie activity...and have been
extended inland across Lewis county for the band off Ontario.

On Friday...high pressure extending from the central plains to the
Upper Great Lakes will set up a north to northeast flow of
increasingly cold sub arctic air. Afternoon temps will be in the
teens across the western counties and in the single digits across
parts of the North Country. The cold northerly flow will keep lake
snows south-southeast of both lakes...but with a lowering cap accums
will be limited.
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This warmth, peaking Thursday coupled with a southerly breeze and
dewpoints rising above freezing will put a major dent into our
existing deep snowpack. Biggest drop in the snowpack will likely be
Thursday when a primed snowpack encounters an airmass that will
likely bring air temperatures to 50F if not warmer to WNY along with
a period of rain. Late next week will need to be watched for
possible ice jams along with any flooding with the combination of
rain and snowmelt.
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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GEFS are pretty far SE with next weeks storm, they look nothing like the OP. Wouldn't be surprised to see 18Z be less cutterish.

 

canvas.png.1c19f6c07b5f58b3a103d1f37f320eb3.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

Whenever we've had cutters show up in the long range this season (December), they have usually ended up much weaker and farther south. Perhaps we revert back to that situation...but hopefully with it being February, we get better results.

But then, the GEFS are often the SE outliers.

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4 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Judah Cohen said February will be brutal cold month so where's the blowtorch guys? :arrowhead:

aaa.jpg

For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY..

This will cause snow to melt. 

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 38.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY..

This will cause snow to melt. 

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 38.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Ha ha I know. I'm kidding. I have solid 10 inches of snow in Rochester, NY. Hopefully it doesn't go away 100%. 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY..

This will cause snow to melt. 

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 38.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Haha! I was thinking the same thing. We are winter weenies and nobody on here is touting huge blowtorch all month. There's a thaw coming (boo) and the map he posted isn't "brutal cold" either. lol... Even it's just a map for a several day stretch. Oh, and good for Judah Cohen.

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Haha! I was thinking the same thing. We are winter weenies and nobody on here is touting huge blowtorch all month. There's a thaw coming (boo) and the map he posted isn't "brutal cold" either. lol... Even it's just a map for a several day stretch. Oh, and good for Judah Cohen.

The EPS are much less torchy too. The "warm" weeklies are now cold. Weeklies are useless.

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Lol yeah I noticed but rgem still in it's LR..

NWS did make note of it...

 

The surface ridge axis moves further into the region Sunday.
Moisture will continue to increase across Lake Erie Sunday and light
snow is possible across western NY with lake enhancement east of
Lake Erie. Lake snows possible east-northeast of Lake Ontario with
minor accumulation expected. Temperatures will rise into the low to
mid 20s across western NY and to the teens across the North Country
Sunday. Lake aggregate troughing expected Sunday night and lake snows
possible close to the lake shores. Temperatures will fall to the
single digits Sunday night
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39 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
This warmth, peaking Thursday coupled with a southerly breeze and
dewpoints rising above freezing will put a major dent into our
existing deep snowpack. Biggest drop in the snowpack will likely be
Thursday when a primed snowpack encounters an airmass that will
likely bring air temperatures to 50F if not warmer to WNY along with
a period of rain. Late next week will need to be watched for
possible ice jams along with any flooding with the combination of
rain and snowmelt.

Might see some ice buildup at Niagara Falls.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

You know how there was some discussion about DT on here earlier? I also was a part of Eastern and remember his violent outbursts. Anyways... how does the man expect people to take him any more seriously than they do JB when he posts maps like the "Start Time" map below? :lmao:

Screenshot_20220127-141430_Facebook.jpg

This is why we love HeWhoShallNotBeNamed. (DT)!

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15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Nice thought but it’s going to be a giant cutter like on EURO. GEFS are terrible at thisimage.thumb.png.7d08a40e47b61b9b3ebfc493c784450b.png

There will be definitely be a cutter, but not buying 3 day torch like some of the models are showing. I do think we max out around 50 degrees ahead of that system though. Downsloping never fails. GFS went quite a bit further SE

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

This is warmest frame of GFS

gfs_T2m_neus_27.png

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