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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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29 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Looks like the GFS wants to wind up the storm at the end of next week and wipe out our snow cover with rain and mild temperatures. Then the next wave passes over us and gives us mixed precipitation. 

You don't think some of the glacier will be able to survive mid 40s, rain, and high dewpoints? Could be lots of flooding with water not soaking into the ground and blocked drains.

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8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You don't think some of the glacier will be able to survive mid 40s, rain, and high dewpoints? Could be lots of flooding with water not soaking into the ground and blocked drains.

If the GFS is correct which it isn't, sizzlecuse would have a shot at 60° and another rainmaker to follow lol

sfct.us_ne - 2022-01-26T125029.162.png

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36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

As of now it looks like an epic warm up with not one but two rain storms. 

This is where it pays to be one of those weird “snowfall rate” guys rather than being one of the much cooler “snowpack” guys.  3 weeks of slowly building an almost decent snowpack gets washed away in a day or 3, then the painfully slow process starts over again.  

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

E7FC5B2A-A42F-45D4-96CE-7D85A091A016.thumb.gif.e050e21de159269233b973db3db93ec0.gifthis Lake Ontario band has been incredible to watch.  Looks like it’s going to spin up into a bigger more defined swirl as it gets pushed north 

Heading towards Toronto?  It looks like the band over the lake could be over the GTA right around rush hour. 

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A southwest flow will continue through the first half of the
Thursday night as a cold front rapidly approaches the region. Cold
air advection aloft will move across the Lakes and a lake response
will begin northeast of the Lakes Thursday evening. Snow showers
will likely organize along the cold front as it moves through the
region overnight. A few inches of snow is possible along the front
with lake enhancement northeast of the Lakes Thursday evening moving
southeast of the Lakes by Friday morning. East of Lake Erie...
Snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible, mainly from the
Lake Erie shoreline from Chautauqua county into northern Erie and
Genesee counties. Similarly east of Lake Ontario... snowfall
accumulations of 2-4 inches is possible across Jefferson county and
northern Lewis counties Thursday night, moving south to Oswego
county Friday morning. Additional snowfall accumulation from
northwest flow may give northern Cayuga/Oswego counties a few more
inches resulting in a potential Advisory late Thursday night-Friday
morning. A west-northwest wind will move into the region overnight
and temperatures will fall into the teens across western NY and
single digits across the North Country. Light lake effect snow
showers will continue across western NY Friday with the best chance
southeast of Lake Ontario. Cold Friday, temperatures will peak in
the teens to low 20s.
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The January thaw will commence Monday...the last day of January, and
will peak just after the end of this forecast period. Deep southerly
flow coupled with increasing heights aloft will allow for
temperatures to increase towards the freezing mark Monday...and then
approach the lower 40s Tuesday, and upper 40s Wednesday with a bit
of a gusty southerly breeze. This southerly breeze will limit the
cooling Tuesday Night, with temperatures dropping just a few
degrees, especially across the Lake Plain.

With surface high pressure anchored off to our east our region will
remain dry through Wednesday afternoon
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