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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Weekend def a coastal storm. We won't have to nail bight how far west the good stuff ends up, Ala the NE and esp the NYC forum.  Looks like 00Z Euro puts NYC on west edge of heavier totals with a sharp gradient. Almost no wiggle room there.

3.3"/0.16 LE yesterday. Not quite enough for a "Top 5" event here, only 7th as I did record two separate 3.5" snowfalls prior.  About 7" over past 3 days and snowdepth almost a foot now.  Combined with -7F this a.m., deep winter.  These are the kind of wintry stretches you rarely get in more coastal or SE areas.

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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Weekend def a coastal storm. We won't have to nail bight how far west the good stuff ends up, Ala the NE and esp the NYC forum.  Looks like 00Z Euro puts NYC on west edge of heavier totals with a sharp gradient. Almost no wiggle room there.

3.3"/0.16 LE yesterday. Not quite enough for a "Top 5" event here, only 7th as I did record two separate 3.5" snowfalls prior.  About 7" over past 3 days and snowdepth almost a foot now.  Combined with -7F this a.m., deep winter.  These are the kind of wintry stretches you rarely get in more coastal or SE areas.

We nickel and dime our way to glory!

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just drove from south Buffalo into Hamburg, a little meso low action.

Almost looks like the head of the Ontario band is getting sheared and pushed south.  Few lighter returns floated over Ontario and then perked back up over Erie.  Came down to do a scouting report on the ice but can’t see that far out. 

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25 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

 

3.3"/0.16 LE yesterday. Not quite enough for a "Top 5" event here, only 7th as I did record two separate 3.5" snowfalls prior.  About 7" over past 3 days and snowdepth almost a foot now.  Combined with -7F this a.m., deep winter.  These are the kind of wintry stretches you rarely get in more coastal or SE areas.

Same conditions here. The piles are looking better and better. :) 

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Interesting. Hadn't seen that yet. It's the NAM though.  The other models still have me head scratching as to how much and where.

I can almost guarantee the low pressure system will not do this track. Nam is such a trash model lol

81 vs 84 hour it goes back SW and strengthens, not happening

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Got 6z Euro maps? Awaiting PCR results I've been down for the count for 15 hours and lost. See GFS and UK are swimming.

My PCR was + on Sunday. So happy to be expecting.  ;) Flu/upper resp. cold symptoms basically (3x vax'd).  GFS wants Flemish Cap, back to its old school OTS tricks probably.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can almost guarantee the low pressure system will not do this track. Nam is such a trash model lol

81 vs 84 hour it goes back SW and strengthens, not happening

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

Could be indicating a cyclonic loop, not unknown with rapidly intensifying systems (which this looks to be). But yeah...it's the NAM at 72+ hrs...

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11 minutes ago, sferic said:

I will make my decision whether to stay North of Syracuse in Cicero this weekend or head back to Lynbrook Long Island ( near JFK airport)

I will wait for tonight's 00z runs

 

Odds leaning for the trip to LI

 

Potential of 12-18+ will be the decision maker

There is no decision to make. If you have the time to go to long island you should go. What part of LI is your house?

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2 minutes ago, sferic said:

I will make my decision whether to stay North of Syracuse in Cicero this weekend or head back to Lynbrook Long Island ( near JFK airport)

I will wait for tonight's 00z runs

 

Odds leaning for the trip to LI

 

Potential of 12-18+ will be the decision maker

Euro looks sick, if negative I should go to Queens.

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can almost guarantee the low pressure system will not do this track. Nam is such a trash model lol

81 vs 84 hour it goes back SW and strengthens, not happening

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

You can see what happens between 81 and 84 hours. At 81 hours there are 2 low centers, one southwest of the center marked with the L.  At 84 hours the 2 centers consolidate and the resultant center is slightly south of the 81 hour center. 

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