rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 46 minutes ago, vortmax said: Lost power. Thankfully it's 70. That’s my #1 complaint with wind. I simply don’t know what to do with myself once the power goes out. I gotta look into a better generator. My current one is a gas powered that requires a ridiculously hard pull on a recoil cord. I’m not even sure I can do it anymore. I think the new converters are better. Electric start and much quieter would be a plus. Maybe even a natural gas one. But they are very expensive and my electric system is set for a portable generator to sit on the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Looks like TT is down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: If only this storm was a touch stronger or still deepening and this would have been a very significant event. So close! Still a great day for a wind lover. Crazy the negative impact the cold lake had in Buffalo. Been down on the water front since 230 and nothing more than breeze 10-15mph tops. Packed down here everyone out enjoying the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 EPS are ALL incredibly far west. All of them are cutters. Super ugly. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Couple gusts near 50 up here at 1200'...still 66° in Caz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Crazy the negative impact the cold lake had in Buffalo. Been down on the water front since 230 and nothing more than breeze 10-15mph tops. Packed down here everyone out enjoying the sun. Rochester came in with their 7th highest gust in history today. 71mph at 1:20. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: EPS are ALL incredibly far west. All of them are cutters. Super ugly. Not good. Gfs is trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Gfs gives a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Couple of monsters. Lots of good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 gfs would be nice, but I worry we are seeing what we have seen of late. Overdoing the cold push and making things a bit more progressive than what occurs in reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Gfs gives a foot. ...to what has been the snow zone this winter. East of a Finger Lakes to Watertown line it shows the same 'ol theme of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Got rid of the disgusting hell-furnace south wind and the temp dropped 22 degrees in the past several hours from 72 to 50! It dropped 10 degrees in just the last hour alone. I was already sweating today (and I'm not fat). lol. I just hate warm weather...my body likes to be cool. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 15 hours ago, winter_rules said: I really enjoy your posts about big hikes like this. Something I know I would love, but never had any friends into it, and current situation of wife/kids prevent me from bailing on them for a weekend anyway. Maybe when my son gets just a little older we can start doing stuff like this. What do you eat while you are out on a hike like that? Clif Bars? Kind? Just water or do you bring Gatorade or something for electrolytes? We have a group of 15 or so that go up there to hike with us. We backpack, day trip, 3-5 day camping trips the last few years. My first peak was Mt. Marcy in 2017 and I should be finishing this year, so 5 years to complete. It's over a 6 hour drive each way, so whenever I go up there I try to hit 1-2 high peaks. I've hiked all over the place and those mountains are still my hardest climbs. My west coast hikes were much easier than the ADK hikes. It has to do with the terrain up there. They are just so steep and long, the west coast hikes you start at a higher elevation and the terrain is more smooth. I usually bring the wife and dog with me but we also do many without them. Preparation is everything up there. Those mountains are unforgiving. Saturdays hike started at -22 degrees, my water tube froze in the first few minutes. I also lost my insulated water bottle about 2 miles from the top and nearly gave up and walked back. So many of these hikes are mental. My body started cramping pretty bad which usually doesn't happen. The cold really got to me. Also the deep snow was difficult, no one was on the trail before us. I usually do an hour of yoga/stretching the day before the hike and then 10 mins or so stretch right before. I bring about 6 liters of water/body armor for any hike greater then 12 miles. I drink about a liter per 2-3 miles. A mile in ADK isn't a typical mile. A typical ADK mile at my speed is 30-35 minutes and I am a very fast hiker, most people take 40-45 minutes+ per mile. I bring pickle juice or something salty to help with cramps. Chips work as well. I bring 1-2 PBNJ sandwiches and lots of trail mix/nuts. You have to prepare a lot for the winter hikes as conditions up there can be very dangerous. A guy from East Aurora died up there last year. A healthy 41 year old man. https://buffalonews.com/news/local/east-aurora-man-41-dies-while-hiking-in-the-adirondacks/article_96c471aa-0018-11ec-9ff0-832cd4c850d7.html Sometimes up there in winter you won't run into anyone for the entire 18 miles, if anything happens its on your partner to go back to the start of the hike and get help. There is no cell phone service and it is 5-6 hours back to the entrance. In summer you almost always have people on the trail. I would never hike solo in winter unless I knew more people would be on the trail or a very popular winter hiking peak like I did a few weeks ago. It also helps alot that I follow the weather and know what the conditions are going to be like up there. There are a little over 13,000 ADK 46ers. A few have done all of them in winter and in summer. I've done 8 in winter and 32 in the other seasons. Should be finishing up later this fail on Allen with our Josh Allen jerseys. Me, my buddy and his dad are going to finish all at the same time. Want to add I also eat a banana and granola bar the morning of the hike and bring 1 banana and 4-5 clementines on the hike. Most of these hikes range anywhere from 8-18 hours, unless backpacking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 12 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I just realized this says you did 18 miles. That is nuts. In the snow? Crazy town It really was crazy. Like I said earlier I literally shed a tear when I got to the top. I've never been that beaten down before. As I lost my water bottle I was melting snow in my mouth and drinking it to combat my cramps. 3 of us started the hike and my 1 friend turned around half way in and went back to the car. nothing beats this though, it’s all worth it. The 2nd picture is from another 46er 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Hey, @LakeEffectKing, we got an honorable mention from BGM in their discussion! A short window of lake effect snow looks somewhat favorable Monday night, and may produce a couple inches of snow from around Baldwinsville to Cazenovia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, @LakeEffectKing, we got an honorable mention from BGM in their discussion! A short window of lake effect snow looks somewhat favorable Monday night, and may produce a couple inches of snow from around Baldwinsville to Cazenovia. Yeah....after being outside all day today, it's hard to give it up...happens every time around this time of year. But I wouldn't turn down a biggie, anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yeah....after being outside all day today, it's hard to give it up...happens every time around this time of year. But I wouldn't turn down a biggie, anytime. Hopefully we can get things to trend our way for next weekend. It looks like a deep push of cold air. It could be one of our best shots for a Noreaster if the cold air moves in fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The HRRR and Rap seem to be trying to show some surprise snowfall tomorrow. Would be nice, but I am skeptical of there being enough cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Highest temp I got on my ride home today was just west of Syracuse on i90 thruway at 78 degrees. SYR officially broke its record by 8 degrees, extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I figured this was coming lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Lake Erie got rid of the ice quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I figured this was coming lol GEFS, UK, and GEM are all further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 GEFS GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 It's trying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: It's trying. That's a big shift from 00z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This morning's GFS (The models can't decide if we're going to have Winter or Spring): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I went to bed more or less writing this storm off. Who knows? I will say the GFS cold bias has been pretty bad lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Obviously this is before the GFS 6z.. On Friday morning there will be a few separate pieces spread out over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs. snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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