Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[BuffaloWeather]

Hiked 18 miles yesterday and #40/46 Mt. Marshall. Temps were -22 to start the day, my hardest hike I might have ever done I almost cried when I hit the sign at the top lol. Lost my water bottle, was so cold everything froze, 60-70” at the top. Today was much more enjoyable 8 hours of perfect skiing. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

For you snow depth weenies this pole is not fully pushed down it kept going and going. Here are my AllTrails stats for that hike 

[DeltaT13]

These anomalous spring wind events are interesting.  I assume it’s the juxtaposition between the ice cold lakes and the dark leafless land which creates a huge horizontal temperature delta that must drive large powerful turbulent circulations. Add in some of large snow fields in the higher elevations and dense wooded areas creating additional localized circulations and it should be and interesting day… as long as we get adequate solar heating. 

[winter_rules]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For you snow depth weenies this pole is not fully pushed down it kept going and going. Here are my AllTrails stats for that hike 

I really enjoy your posts about big hikes like this.  Something I know I would love, but never had any friends into it, and current situation of wife/kids prevent me from bailing on them for a weekend anyway.  Maybe when my son gets just a little older we can start doing stuff like this.  
 

What do you eat while you are out on a hike like that?  Clif Bars? Kind? Just water or do you bring Gatorade or something for electrolytes? 

[vortmax]

7 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

These anomalous spring wind events are interesting.  I assume it’s the juxtaposition between the ice cold lakes and the dark leafless land which creates a huge horizontal temperature delta that must drive large powerful turbulent circulations. Add in some of large snow fields in the higher elevations and dense wooded areas creating additional localized circulations and it should be and interesting day… as long as we get adequate solar heating. 

Satellite looks like it may clear out here in a couple hours. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

7 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

These anomalous spring wind events are interesting.  I assume it’s the juxtaposition between the ice cold lakes and the dark leafless land which creates a huge horizontal temperature delta that must drive large powerful turbulent circulations. Add in some of large snow fields in the higher elevations and dense wooded areas creating additional localized circulations and it should be and interesting day… as long as we get adequate solar heating. 

Clear blue skies and full sunshine here . Could be interesting in a few hours . 

[lakeeffectkid383]

When are winds gonna pick up? I know the worst is supposed to be from 12-4 but it’s 9am and I don’t think I’m gusting higher than 25 mph right now. 

[rochesterdave]

We are sunny and gusty in Pittsford. Not liking it one bit. Lol. Enjoy. 

[rochesterdave]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For you snow depth weenies this pole is not fully pushed down it kept going and going. Here are my AllTrails stats for that hike 

I just realized this says you did 18 miles. That is nuts. In the snow? Crazy town

[BGM Blizzard]

Already 60° here with mostly sunny skies. We're definitely going north of 70.

[BGM Blizzard]

Hrrr shows mid 70s on the lake plain for several hours

[wolfie09]

[BGM Blizzard]

Also showing some impressive Cape for this time of year in parts of CNY along with strong shear. Could see a few Svr Tstorm warnings along the front.

 

[Revracer800]

59 and full sun here in Hannibal

[BGM Blizzard]

Marginal risk for Svr storms out today for large chunk of Upstate

[rochesterdave]

Here we go. This is what I’ve been watching for. Let’s see if it catches on. 

[rochesterdave]

This would be a BIG deal. Keep in mind, it’s the ICON. But good to see a decent storm 

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This would be a BIG deal. Keep in mind, it’s the ICON. But good to see a decent storm 

Theres something about that date...

[tim123]

5 years ago same thing maybe? 

[tim123]

Wall to Wall sun out. Will mix atmosphere well

[DeltaT13]

Winds are ramping up nicely in Buffalo. I’m downtown at a hotel right now about to check out (duffs then home!).  Seems quite likely that we’ll see some damaging gusts this afternoon. Forecast has temps slowly falling during the afternoon which should increase surface instability as the ground will still be baking in the sun. That’s when we should see the action. 

[wolfie09]

[tim123]

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Almost like 2017

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Winds are ramping up nicely in Buffalo. I’m downtown at a hotel right now about to check out (duffs then home!).  Seems quite likely that we’ll see some damaging gusts this afternoon. Forecast has temps slowly falling during the afternoon which should increase surface instability as the ground will still be baking in the sun. That’s when we should see the action. 

Full sun and blue sky here.  Thinking this might not be as crazy in BUF.  Interesting comment on the warmer air over the colder lake keeping the seiche and lake shore flooding aspect likely out of play today.  Worst winds will likely run from just NE of BUF through Batavia and into ROC. 

Forecast soundings continue to show 80+ knots at 850MB in the warm sector, and 60 knots just off the deck. It`s unlikely we will fully mix to 850MB, but a few thousand feet of diurnal mixing with sunshine appears likely, tapping into the 60 knot flow available just off the surface. This will translate into gusts 55-60 MPH across much of the region, with a corridor of 65+ MPH gusts likely from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Unlike many of our wind events, the warm airmass over the cold lakes will result in a more stable boundary layer close to Lake Erie and Ontario, with the strongest wind gusts likely to be across inland areas and not close to the lakeshores.

[tim123]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Almost like 2017

Sharpen that up a bit more would be a big one

[wolfie09]

Nearing 62° here, forecast high is 63°, it looks like we will blow past that..

[Revracer800]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nearing 62° here, forecast high is 63°, it looks like we will blow past that..

64 here with full sun

[LakeEffectKing]

Was in Fayetteville about 20 min. ago. Car thermometer was 70°.

[DeltaT13]

11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Full sun and blue sky here.  Thinking this might not be as crazy in BUF.  Interesting comment on the warmer air over the colder lake keeping the seiche and lake shore flooding aspect likely out of play today.  Worst winds will likely run from just NE of BUF through Batavia and into ROC. 

Forecast soundings continue to show 80+ knots at 850MB in the warm sector, and 60 knots just off the deck. It`s unlikely we will fully mix to 850MB, but a few thousand feet of diurnal mixing with sunshine appears likely, tapping into the 60 knot flow available just off the surface. This will translate into gusts 55-60 MPH across much of the region, with a corridor of 65+ MPH gusts likely from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Unlike many of our wind events, the warm airmass over the cold lakes will result in a more stable boundary layer close to Lake Erie and Ontario, with the strongest wind gusts likely to be across inland areas and not close to the lakeshores.

That’s why I’m happy I’m heading back to the ROC!  But it’s the battle zone between those cold pockets and the inland areas that creates the deepest mixing IMO.