winter_rules Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:45 PM, wolfie09 said: Expand I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:12 PM, winter_rules said: I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again. Expand I was thinking the exact same thing and wasn't about to be the first to post about it. I avoided checking the models the past 2 days and was dumb and looked this morning. Overnight runs for Monday: Syracuse, below the best snow line with Buffalo to Watertown yet again getting the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:08 PM, TugHillMatt said: Picked up a surprise inch of translucent fluff overnight. Expand Just a dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:45 PM, wolfie09 said: Expand Don’t mind if I do. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Flakes flying here but the band is having issues pushing inland, which was expected.. Big time dendrites though, I'll enjoy it while I have it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 LR Nam wants to hop on the JT express.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:08 PM, TugHillMatt said: Picked up a surprise inch of translucent fluff overnight. Expand The stuff that sublimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:47 PM, wolfie09 said: LR Nam wants to hop on the JT express.. Expand 12z RGEM is weaker and further south, but all rain. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Euro sure delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 First wave on the GFS looks a little north and warmer, it's a rain-snow scenario on Monday.. Our best shot looks to be Monday night with better timing and colder air available.. Obviously not going to be a big one though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 3:01 PM, vortmax said: The stuff that sublimates. Expand Yep! It was sublimating by like 9/ 9:30. lol On 3/4/2022 at 2:47 PM, wolfie09 said: LR Nam wants to hop on the JT express.. Expand You and Buffaloweather disagreed with me...but this is the same crap pattern we've been stuck in for months. So tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:05 PM, wolfie09 said: Expand Like i said last month ago, we will not see any warmth until late April and I was right. You guys laughed at me. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Not looking great at 12z, with the GFS being most favorable(Imby), another 1"-3" event it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Euro is dreadful..Warm Monday, not much with the follow up.. I'm thinking the clown map is including some mixed precipitation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 6:37 PM, wolfie09 said: Euro is dreadful..Warm Monday, not much with the follow up.. I'm thinking the clown map is including some mixed precipitation.. Expand But the kuchera map is all that matters. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 2:12 PM, winter_rules said: I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again. Expand On 3/4/2022 at 2:16 PM, TugHillMatt said: I was thinking the exact same thing and wasn't about to be the first to post about it. I avoided checking the models the past 2 days and was dumb and looked this morning. Overnight runs for Monday: Syracuse, below the best snow line with Buffalo to Watertown yet again getting the snow. Expand These weak sauce waves arent going to produce much of anything anyway other than mood flakes. Aside from fighting the usual underwhelming snow growth and precip rates, now that we're into March, you can add increasingly hostile boundary layer, sun angle, and antecendent warm/wet ground into the factors working against accumulation depending on time of day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 4:28 PM, brentrich said: Like i said last month ago, we will not see any warmth until late April and I was right. You guys laughed at me. :/ Expand We'll pretend the handful of thaw torches the past few weeks didn't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 9:39 PM, Leelee said: We'll pretend the handful of thaw torches the past few weeks didn't happen. Expand I have that clown blocked, but I like how he's just going to ignore temps in the upper 60's on Sunday. What a weird existence to troll a weather forum with nonsense for years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 1:29 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Yes but isn’t the EPS doubling down as well? Expand not like the gfs or gefs. the eps are very transient with chill. couple cold days then back to normal or slightly abv, rinse/repeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 This right here is our time frame if it’s going to happen this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 10:18 PM, DeltaT13 said: I have that clown blocked, but I like how he's just going to ignore temps in the upper 60's on Sunday. What a weird existence to troll a weather forum with nonsense for years. Expand I'm sure it's the guy from Tolland and one of his many alt accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 NAM says forget about it. GFS was still game at 6z. Things look decidedly dull as compared to a couple days ago. That’s for sure. Hard to get around crap MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Can't hold back my excitement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 On 3/5/2022 at 3:59 PM, wolfie09 said: Can't hold back my excitement.. Expand It would at least put me over 70 inches for the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 I can't complain about any snow in March, especially if it can last longer than a day. When the average highs hit 40 with March sun angle that can melt inches of snow on a bitter cold day. There's been Marches in the past with no snow at all in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 On 3/5/2022 at 3:00 PM, rochesterdave said: NAM says forget about it. GFS was still game at 6z. Things look decidedly dull as compared to a couple days ago. That’s for sure. Hard to get around crap MJO? Expand Mjo isn't running this pattern right now being in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Cautiously optimistic for this wind event tomorrow. It’s actually the type of event that brings the most potential. Bring on the sun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 On 3/5/2022 at 9:44 PM, DeltaT13 said: Cautiously optimistic for this wind event tomorrow. It’s actually the type of event that brings the most potential. Bring on the sun! Expand BUF is talking it up more each update… Bust potential is there though if clouds win the sky and mixing doesn’t occur. Looking like prime time for BUF area is noon-4pm. Aggressive 6 hour 500 mb height fall center on track to move through western New York around mid day Sunday, with a ~995 mb surface low tracking north of the area. Low level wind fields remain very impressive with 850 mb winds near 80 knots and 925 mb winds of 50-60 knots. Biggest question remains as to how much mixing will take place within the warm sector ahead of the cold front, as this is normally a less efficient environment to mix stronger winds to the surface. Sunshine, how much and how long will play a crucial role in how much of the wind aloft can get to the surface. Momentum transfer profiles suggesting that we are likely looking 50-55 knots being able to mix to the surface generally from a corridor from Buffalo to Rochester, maybe as far east as Oswego county and potentially as far south as portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern tier. Of course, less sunshine would limit this amount of wind while more sunshine could bring even higher gusts along with a larger coverage area. Will maintain the high wind watch for the entire area and try to pin down a more confined area for the greatest wind threat in later forecasts, but it should be noted that this event could be a significant if greater mixing depths can be achieved. There are a few cases of sunshine driven warm sector mixing producing warning criteria wind gusts in the past 10-15 years during the months of March and April, the most notable of which is the March 8, 2017 event. This event does not appear as extreme as 2017, but the magnitude of winds aloft and potential for sunshine driven mixing do draw some parallels. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 On 3/5/2022 at 9:44 PM, DeltaT13 said: Cautiously optimistic for this wind event tomorrow. It’s actually the type of event that brings the most potential. Bring on the sun! Expand You finally get a good one!?! March can really bring the wind. I’ll be hoping on a long shot snow event between now and next Saturday. Very changeable environment so I don’t think anything can be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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