BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: We are entering a potentially epic pattern. PV looks to potentially break off. I’m seeing strong signals for a big Miller A. It might cut but really, the GFS was spitting out unbelievable numbers until the 6z run. you’ve been like this for most of the winter. I know you’ve had a tough run. Yeah someone from Michigan to Northeast is going to get 1-2 big snowstorms in this pattern. The 2nd one looks massive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 Just looking at GFS there are 3 big winter storms. 3 timeframes to watch. 3/8, 3/12, and 3/17. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 Scott that high 100 miles Southeast and we're talking 2 massive storms here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 This one...is the one that we in CNY (and eastern NY) are SO sick of seeing this year: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: This one...is the one that we in CNY (and eastern NY) are SO sick of seeing this year: Those pics are worthless. Just goes to show you how many various threats there are. Best look of the year for synoptic in Upstate. Its like 4 waves of low pressures on GFS with plenty of cold air nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4.7 last night, over 92 for the year. 2’ since last Friday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: This one...is the one that we in CNY (and eastern NY) are SO sick of seeing this year: That has been the predominant storm track to be sure. About 15 miles south of me is Bristol Mountain ski area and just that little distance has been huge. They’ve had very little snow due to this track. While Rochester and points NW have done pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those pics are worthless. Just goes to show you how many various threats there are. Best look of the year for synoptic in Upstate. Its like 4 waves of low pressures on GFS with plenty of cold air nearby. We’ll see at least one banger! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That has been the predominant storm track to be sure. About 15 miles south of me is Bristol Mountain ski area and just that little distance has been huge. They’ve had very little snow due to this track. While Rochester and points NW have done pretty well. Excited to see how much snow is on high peaks tomorrow. Hiking Marshall. Got our lift passes for Saturday for Whiteface. https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/new-york/mount-marshall-via-the-calamity-brook-trail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Big, beautiful fluffers in this weak-looking band. I'm not used to seeing many of these NNW bands. Decent snow here. It looks wintry for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I feel the days of building a deep snowpack are over for this season. We’re going to have to be satisfied with what we get on the backside of these storms. Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll get one to track just south of us and give us predominantly snow. Either way the increasing insolation from the March sun will melt whatever falls within a day or two. The 3.1 inches I got last night is already start to melt in the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Decent snow here. It looks wintry for sure. It’s just to my west, as usual. I can look to the west and see the snow clouds. That band will probably never make it to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 The band did make it here. Currently huge flakes being blown around in the wind. Shouldn’t last too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12z GFS definitely more suppressed and weaker with the Monday system. Looks like we'll be on the cold side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those pics are worthless. Just goes to show you how many various threats there are. Best look of the year for synoptic in Upstate. Its like 4 waves of low pressures on GFS with plenty of cold air nearby. I disagree. It is not worthless when it is showing a similar setup to many we've already had. It can help to give an indication of where the front may set up again. Unfortunately, that is not where we want it. Hopefully we'll see things shift a bit more south by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 GFS 12z Kuchera ratios little less than 10-1.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I disagree. It is not worthless when it is showing a similar setup to many we've already had. It can help to give an indication of where the front may set up again. Unfortunately, that is not where we want it. Hopefully we'll see things shift a bit more south by next week. Patterns a month ago mean little to nothing now. Past results don't foretell future outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Canadian kind of similar to the GFS.. How much of this sticks would be a different story lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Excited to see how much snow is on high peaks tomorrow. Hiking Marshall. Got our lift passes for Saturday for Whiteface. https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/new-york/mount-marshall-via-the-calamity-brook-trail Wow. Looks like a challenging trail based on the reviews. I’m sure it’ll be a breeze for you. Take lots of pictures. I assume you’ll bring the dog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: I feel the days of building a deep snowpack are over for this season. We’re going to have to be satisfied with what we get on the backside of these storms. Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll get one to track just south of us and give us predominantly snow. Either way the increasing insolation from the March sun will melt whatever falls within a day or two. The 3.1 inches I got last night is already start to melt in the sun. You can tell this isn't just lake effect fluff though, as the snowcover on some of the roads and parking lots still hasn't melted. If it was all lake effect, it would have been gone by 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Precipitation trend on the GFS.. Drying out with the Weak/farther south solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Precipitation trend on the GFS.. Drying out with the Weak/farther south solution.. Yeah. I was gonna say. We got our bump south but it just doesn’t look like it did yesterday. Lots of time. Probably isn’t a big one. The next one might be IT!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Wow. Looks like a challenging trail based on the reviews. I’m sure it’ll be a breeze for you. Take lots of pictures. I assume you’ll bring the dog? No dog this time, going with some buds. Leaving tonight at 11 and driving through night and starting hike tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Ukie looked pretty cold but 6hr precipitation rates were meh lol Some enhancement on the SS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Actually it's not terrible but the timing is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Actually it's not terrible but the timing is lol Not terrible for up here atleast. Brunt would be after 3pm. Further southwest, yea would need some good rates 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Nice, wintry looking day for early March. Big fluffies this morning and it's actually a deeper winter overcast right now, with the trees coated in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: We are entering a potentially epic pattern. PV looks to potentially break off. I’m seeing strong signals for a big Miller A. It might cut but really, the GFS was spitting out unbelievable numbers until the 6z run. you’ve been like this for most of the winter. I know you’ve had a tough run. Wondering if this March might rival those of 1956, 1960, and 1984? It's looking quite cold between the 10th and 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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