rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Heading up to Lake Placid again this weekend, this time with the boyz for some skiing on whiteface and hiking another peak. Looks like perfect conditions on Friday/Saturday up there. Sunny and 20-30 degrees with tons of fresh powder. Awesome! Where are you staying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Awesome! Where are you staying? Air bnb in lake placid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Could be a sneaky decent event tonight.. Obviously the models are not in agreement wrt precipitation amounts.. Forecast soundings display a saturated isothermal layer that extends several thousand feet through the dendritic growth zone by this evening, which will help boost snow-to- liquid ratios above 15:1 due to larger flake sizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 GFS is trying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Through Tuesday morning, which includes tonight.. Fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 UK 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Familiar look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Transfer scenario on the Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Trying to thread the needle as usual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 GFS says winter is far from over lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Surprise half inch this morning... Man, this winter has been maddening with all this timing system on fronts and hoping we're on the "right side." It hasn't worked out much for CNY, so my hopes aren't very high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 My morning inch is already poof lol Doesn't take much this time of year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GFS says winter is far from over lol Right when I go to Myrtle Beach. Ugh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Let's bump that just a little north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: GFS says winter is far from over lol Lets get a massive rare March LES event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Lets get a massive rare March LES event. I envision you repacking away your shorts. A tear in your eye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Or the rarest of them all For late season not early lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I envision you repacking away your shorts. A tear in your eye. Sadly I am becoming less of a snow weenie. Especially once March hits. I attribute this to quitting drinking. I look forward to the snow less now. I suppose the net sum is quite positive but it’s nostalgically sad… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 59 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Right when I go to Myrtle Beach. Ugh. Same here. But I'll bet the weather is plenty warm down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I envision you repacking away your shorts. A tear in your eye. I'm pretty much game for a big storm anytime of the year. But 1-3" just doesn't do it for me this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 From 60s(maybe 70°? somewhere) to lower 30s and wet snow 24 hours later, if that's not spring idk what is lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Lets go 70 degrees to snowstorm to lake effect event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Sadly I am becoming less of a snow weenie. Especially once March hits. I attribute this to quitting drinking. I look forward to the snow less now. I suppose the net sum is quite positive but it’s nostalgically sad… That is sad. I bet your love for it returns. Your location is prime for March events. WAY TOO SOON to think it’s Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Euro has it too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I envision you repacking away your shorts. A tear in your eye. Oh, @BuffaloWeather.... it's calling yooooouuuuu..... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro has it too I’m late to the game but have been following the models all day…winter far from over on both models…in fact it might dig its heels in deeper 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m late to the game but have been following the models all day…winter far from over on both models…in fact it might dig its heels in deeper Yeah. I bet we get a big one out of this. The timing looks good for my ski trip on the 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Lower forecast confidence for the closure of the weekend and the first part of the new work week as the system from the weekend departs interior Canada and heads into its maritimes placing a stalled frontal boundary somewhere across the region. A new surface low will ride northward along the boundary reaching the area sometime between Sunday night and Monday morning. Model discrepancies with this system include the location of the stalled boundary and the timing of arrival of the new low. The location of the stalled front plays a major dilemma with regards to precipitation type. If the front stalls over the region, like the GFS and Canadian suggest, the scenario for mostly rain Sunday night through Monday with a switch over to snow late Monday night will be favored. Additionally, more moisture will be available with this system, which will make for QPF amounts to range from a half inch to and inch. If this scenario becomes valid, flooding will definitely become of concern. Whereas the outlier with this case, the ECMWF has the boundary stalling further south of the region, filtering in the cold air in faster and supports an all snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 EPS look good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lower forecast confidence for the closure of the weekend and the first part of the new work week as the system from the weekend departs interior Canada and heads into its maritimes placing a stalled frontal boundary somewhere across the region. A new surface low will ride northward along the boundary reaching the area sometime between Sunday night and Monday morning. Model discrepancies with this system include the location of the stalled boundary and the timing of arrival of the new low. The location of the stalled front plays a major dilemma with regards to precipitation type. If the front stalls over the region, like the GFS and Canadian suggest, the scenario for mostly rain Sunday night through Monday with a switch over to snow late Monday night will be favored. Additionally, more moisture will be available with this system, which will make for QPF amounts to range from a half inch to and inch. If this scenario becomes valid, flooding will definitely become of concern. Whereas the outlier with this case, the ECMWF has the boundary stalling further south of the region, filtering in the cold air in faster and supports an all snow scenario. Buf going the warm route. Shoot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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