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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Holding out some hope for one last big dump, but doesn't look promising. What a dogs**t winter otherwise. Hopefully ROC eastward will rebound next year.

 

6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah I just went by who was BN for the season right now. Definitely way worse in C and E NY for sure.

I give this winter a big fat D-. The only reason it didn't get an F was for the pretty consistent snowpack for January and February (even though much of that survived only because of the layers of sleet/ice mixed in).

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

I give this winter a big fat D-. The only reason it didn't get an F was for the pretty consistent snowpack for January and February (even though much of that survived only because of the layers of sleet/ice mixed in).

I agree 100% with that assessment. 

2015-16 set the bar for an F so low that just the consistent snowpack for Jan-Feb results in a D- for this winter as it stands now.

For compare, kbgm had 21.7 in 2015-16 thru 2/27 compared to 44.9 for 2021-22 thru 2/27.

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This winter is a solid B for me, teetering on a B+.  I have held at least a trace of snow on the ground everyday since January 3rd, with more than 1 inch on the ground for 56 days.   Greater than 2 inches on the ground continuously since January 16th.  So as a snowpack guy this is about as good as it gets.  I chased a decent lake event in Buffalo and a couple real nice synoptic events here in KROC, one of them with absolutely insane rates, so I can't complain.  Anyway, looks like the show is more or less over as we hit meteorological spring.  We are hitting the peak acceleration of the day length sine wave now as the days are getting longer very quickly and the sun angle sky rockets.  Thanks for the memories 2022!

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17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

This winter is a solid B for me, teetering on a B+.  I have held at least a trace of snow on the ground everyday since January 3rd, with more than 1 inch on the ground for 56 days.   Greater than 2 inches on the ground continuously since January 16th.  So as a snowpack guy this is about as good as it gets.  I chased a decent lake event in Buffalo and a couple real nice synoptic events here in KROC, one of them with absolutely insane rates, so I can't complain.  Anyway, looks like the show is more or less over as we hit meteorological spring.  We are hitting the peak acceleration of the day length sine wave now as the days are getting longer very quickly and the sun angle sky rockets.  Thanks for the memories 2022!

After the last 3 winters I’m looking at a B+. If March is a total bust I could see downgrading to a B or even B-. 
Im not ready to say it’s over but things don’t look great. Not horrible either. 

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B winter for me in Amherst. Compared to the last and first 2 winters I lived here with little snow, it was nice having a steady snowpack for 6 weeks finally. I wish a good LES event would have happened up here, but that requires a lot of ingredients falling in place.

I'd say Buffalo Metro and the airport is an A with the amount of big snows they got this season.

The further south of the city you go would be like a C to an F since this was an awful NW lake effect year.

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1 hour ago, Leelee said:

B winter for me in Amherst. Compared to the last and first 2 winters I lived here with little snow, it was nice having a steady snowpack for 6 weeks finally. I wish a good LES event would have happened up here, but that requires a lot of ingredients falling in place.

I'd say Buffalo Metro and the airport is an A with the amount of big snows they got this season.

The further south of the city you go would be like a C to an F since this was an awful NW lake effect year.

It was truly an odd microclimate winter. The Tug is at a huge deficit, as is the southern tier and the Adirondacks. The Niagara frontier did well. Buf and Roc are near climo. Syracuse was terrible. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

It was truly an odd microclimate winter. The Tug is at a huge deficit, as is the southern tier and the Adirondacks. The Niagara frontier did well. Buf and Roc are near climo. Syracuse was terrible. 

Almost every day waking up in the morning this winter hoping for a snowy surprise. Looking out the blinds, at radar, or at a model run:...

20 Best Hope Memes To Help You Face Life's Challenges - SayingImages.com

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9 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Does anyone have any theories about why seasonal snowfall east of Lake Ontario has been well below average the past several seasons?

I believe global warming is a factor, but this stark change makes me think something else is influencing this. I believe the Pacific has really contributed to the deficit in our region. We have been lucky to get the polar jet in a favorable position to advect cold air from W-E over the Lake. For example, we had below average temps. for most of January but still finished well below normal in snowfall. I was hoping we would get a good dose of LES last month because the 13C temp. difference was favorable.

Still very new to this area so I appreciate the perspective from you all.

I mean the storm track and jet haven’t been favorable. You guys need storms to track to James Bay on Hudson Bay and sit and swirl which brings cold air in from the west. Lately, most of our storms have been progressive, they pop some cold air from the north and scoot out. 
When I lived in Oswego in 91-93, they likewise had very little snow. But just inland did much better. I was super disappointed. I basically chose SUNY Oswego because of snow and in the end it felt like Rochester got more snow. 

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13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

No I know. Just wondering how rich is 3 degrees colder just 60 miles to our NE. 

Rochester being 3.6 degrees warmer than Syracuse and 3.4 degs warmer than Buffalo is quite odd. I've said for awhile the ROC thermometer has run low while Buf/Syr have run warm. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. 

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36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Rochester being 3.6 degrees warmer than Syracuse and 3.4 degs warmer than Buffalo is quite odd. I've said for awhile the ROC thermometer has run low while Buf/Syr have run warm. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. 

I’m telling you guys, it was straight up hardcore winter here. I totally buy it. 

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17 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

This winter is a solid B for me, teetering on a B+.  I have held at least a trace of snow on the ground everyday since January 3rd, with more than 1 inch on the ground for 56 days.   Greater than 2 inches on the ground continuously since January 16th.  So as a snowpack guy this is about as good as it gets.  I chased a decent lake event in Buffalo and a couple real nice synoptic events here in KROC, one of them with absolutely insane rates, so I can't complain.  Anyway, looks like the show is more or less over as we hit meteorological spring.  We are hitting the peak acceleration of the day length sine wave now as the days are getting longer very quickly and the sun angle sky rockets.  Thanks for the memories 2022!

I’m grateful for your record keeping. It verifies my gut feelings. Snow on the ground since January 3! That’s awesome. I think the Rochester record is 85 days. 

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