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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Beautiful run of the 06Z GFS this morning for the snow-parched areas of the Northeast throughout the long range. Would like to see it bump a bit north (which it is doing) for Friday.

My biggest concern, which I think may be starting, is the models start cutting back totals and we end up getting to Friday with a 3 to 6 inch event rather than a 6 to 12 inch one. It's either cutter and amped or flat and weak these days.

This is looking like a classic 4-8” event. Great decent duration, light to moderate snowfall on a winter Friday. 

Temps at height of the precip intensity argue for solid ratios too. 

We take. 

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Starting to feel like what is the  point.  After all the flooding and the additional  high 40s to 50s for several days. I mean I love my winter weather, but if I can't use it...it becomes a slap in the face. Sorry to vent. Just very sick and tired of record warmth melting away everything then maybe go cold again for a few days and pick up more snow just to melt again. Exactly the reason why I didn't want us to leave our cold and drier pattern (not that me or anyone else gets a say! LoL), I will take my chances with cold getting snow vs. this set up any day. Ok rant over, weenie on!

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25 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

Starting to feel like what is the  point.  After all the flooding and the additional  high 40s to 50s for several days. I mean I love my winter weather, but if I can't use it...it becomes a slap in the face. Sorry to vent. Just very sick and tired of record warmth melting away everything then maybe go cold again for a few days and pick up more snow just to melt again. Exactly the reason why I didn't want us to leave our cold and drier pattern (not that me or anyone else gets a say! LoL), I will take my chances with cold getting snow vs. this set up any day. Ok rant over, weenie on!

First couple weeks of March may have some solid winter-like weather with consistent, cold temps. Just have to fight the losing battle of strong March sun. 

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Just now, tim123 said:

March sun is overrated. Once you get into April then you can talk strong sun

Oops, I wasn't referring to snowfall, but rather snowpack that adds to the winter appeal. If you have a solid and established pack, that can hold strong in March...mostly the first half of the month. Anything with higher ratios will be obliterated in March.

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21 minutes ago, tim123 said:

March sun is overrated. Once you get into April then you can talk strong sun

I have to disagree with you. As we get into March the increasing sun angle makes it more and more difficult to accumulate snow during the day, especially on paved surfaces. Once we get past mid month snowfall like we had yesterday will get obliterated by the sun within a day even with temperatures in the 20s. 

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

I have to disagree with you. As we get into March the increasing sun angle makes it more and more difficult to accumulate snow during the day, especially on paved surfaces. Once we get past mid month snowfall like we had yesterday will get obliterated by the sun within a day even with temperatures in the 20s. 

I was more talking about accumulation not retention.

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4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I have to disagree with you. As we get into March the increasing sun angle makes it more and more difficult to accumulate snow during the day, especially on paved surfaces. Once we get past mid month snowfall like we had yesterday will get obliterated by the sun within a day even with temperatures in the 20s. 

Agreed, March sun angle is that of September. You can definitely notice the difference big time that snow struggles to accumulate unless it’s snowing at a good clip 

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Agreed, March sun angle is that of September. You can definitely notice the difference big time that snow struggles to accumulate unless it’s snowing at a good clip 

Oddly I’ve always felt March was October, April was September, may was August and June and July were on their own. 

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Snow-wise March is our most exciting month IMHO. We’ve had our biggest storms in March (in my life) and it isn’t even really close. 
Get into the woods and March is deep winter usually. Up near the Tug, March is awesome. TYPICALLY LOL. Caveats galore…

March can be our worst roughest month some years in regards to storms. Thats why I don't get the whole strong march sun thing. I mean yeah if its sunny and 60 you ain't going to snow anytime of year. 

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Snow-wise March is our most exciting month IMHO. We’ve had our biggest storms in March (in my life) and it isn’t even really close. 
Get into the woods and March is deep winter usually. Up near the Tug, March is awesome. TYPICALLY LOL. Caveats galore…

I’m not disagreeing that we can’t get big snowstorms even into early April. What I’m saying is that even if you get a foot of snow on March 20 the temperature within a day is usually in the 40s and that snowfall is running into the sewers. 

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