CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Getting off and on snow showers, some of which are quite intense. Maybe the best flake size of the winter. Getting hard to measure because whenever the snow lets up the sun melts whatever has fallen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 EPS for next weeks storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS for next weeks storm Good look. Gotta be worried that ridge is too amplified and we get another cutter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah I’m not expecting the River Ice to go anywhere. I’m going down to see the Lake ice once the Seiche rises to around 4-5’ the lake level will be above the booms max height causing it to submerge and then the ice will get pushed over top of it and start to rapidly fill into the Niagara River. I drove down to an area near the Humber River here in Toronto, where there is currently a massive ice jam. While I was standing on the bridge, looking at the jam, the ice suddenly started to move. Pretty amazing to see the power of nature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Pretty remarkable retention. I wouldve expected to lose much more since tiesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks about right but would bump those totals around Buffalo a little. I'll be driving through that orange tomorrow. Going to pull off that exit to the northeast of Pulaski and find a diner. Any suggestions? The Toothless Inn and Spa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I planned my trip a month ago and will be smack dab in middle of LES warning event. Maybe you'll get caught in a non-living band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 40 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Good look. Gotta be worried that ridge is too amplified and we get another cutter though Yeah, that makes me nervous that we just get the same ol' thing we've had...the highs keep pressing in too far to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Another 1.4” of snow since this morning. Moderate to heavy snow burst off and on the last couple hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 GFS has been fairly consistent in showing that system for late next week as a cold one with lots of moisture. I have to believe this COULD be a pretty big system in terms of accumulation, one where even Matt could enjoy in on the fun…maybe… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 New map, just for the clipper/LES.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Pretty remarkable retention. I wouldve expected to lose much more since tiesday Look at that...it even holds strong against the steaming hot urine of a relieved pooch... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 GFS did hold on to the primary longer like the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: GFS did hold on to the primary longer like the euro.. Shocking. How many times have we seen that the past several winters?!? A Low over Jamestown and the bloody #$@#$@$#@$@#!@!@#@!#! bulge of warmth/mix right up Saharasizzlecuse's anus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Yes please lol But a fine line we walk . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that storm next Friday has big dog potential if all goes right. should have plenty of moisture thats for sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Another 1.4” of snow since this morning. Moderate to heavy snow burst off and on the last couple hours. 1.3" here 4.8" storm total. 81.8" on the year. Looks like 100" is a lock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 1.3" here 4.8" storm total. 81.8" on the year. Looks like 100" is a lock. Definitely a solid winter. 86.4” on the season here. The snow pack persistence has been excellent. Will likely have over 2 months of continuous snow cover. Don’t see anyway we don’t hit triple digits before the seasons over. Hell we may hit it before the end of February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Definitely several messy GEFS members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 That clipper is packing a punch and will get aid from the lakes. Thunder snow being reported with snow squall warnings 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Shocking. How many times have we seen that the past several winters?!? A Low over Jamestown and the bloody #$@#$@$#@$@#!@!@#@!#! bulge of warmth/mix right up Saharasizzlecuse's anus. Exactly what is that word??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 @lakeeffectkid383 https://www.wkbw.com/news/local-news/town-of-evans-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-ice-jams-and-flooding?fbclid=IwAR2yxXxW0saMrdRBzqFw7kGShNj_IyL472d6eDJwjuEMpap3GY2UQzLwhlQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Snowing pretty good out right now, light winds and large flakes, my favorite lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Exactly what is that word??? Hashashashanumberhashaumberhasashas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 An area of low pressure tracking northeast along the central Appalachians to the New England coast will begin to increase the chance for snow late Thursday into Friday. There is still plenty of model disagreement for this system. Most of the model guidance is leaning toward a more easterly track with the storm, resulting in at least a modest snowfall. Other guidance is farther west with the storm, resulting in warmer temperatures and more in the form of rain to at least to start before changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Seems like models are understanding whats goin on in Midwest with clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Bit of a head scratcher as to why the wind advisory starts at 1am and ends at 1pm. Seems like 6am-6pm makes a whole lot more sense in regards to the frontal passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Bit of a head scratcher as to why the wind advisory starts at 1am and ends at 1pm. Seems like 6am-6pm makes a whole lot more sense in regards to the frontal passage. Was going to ask your thoughts on timing. Based on radar still looking like the front itself is 10 hours out (45 mph… 450 miles) so 6am ish. Feel the highest winds will only be a 3-4 hour window thinking 4am-8am with the peak period being 6am-7am when the front comes though. Winds have been brisk off Erie this evening already gusting over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Was going to ask your thoughts on timing. Based on radar still looking like the front itself is 10 hours out (45 mph… 450 miles) so 6am ish. Feel the highest winds will only be a 3-4 hour window thinking 4am-8am with the peak period being 6am-7am when the front comes though. Winds have been brisk off Erie this evening already gusting over 30. Seems like it might come in two different short windows. 6-8am then 1-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 For late week system, we are at the mercy of how much that s/w digs out west. Nothing going to stop this from ripping west. Yes there is a beast of a HP in it's way, but nothing to really hold that in. More energy digs in out west, further north and or west that late week system goes. More stretched look or sheared I should say, weaker further south it will be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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