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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Just got super lucky with my timing today on several occasions.  Flows were very strong so while we did see small pockets of flooding the ice kept moving for the most part.  Was trying to setup a time lapse up at Silo City and RiverWorks but was just to dark.  Filled up so fast once the ice started piling in.  Had better lighting at canal side but I was out of energy at that point and just packed it in.  This would have been an awesome view of the entire flow rushing out into the Lake.  There’s a low foggy haze over the skyline and above the ice just adds to the feel of it!

9F8B85F6-AA17-427C-A0F6-1CC31606FD74.jpeg

I wonder if any of this ice will make its way over the falls to start creating an ice bridge?

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12 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I wonder if any of this ice will make its way over the falls to start creating an ice bridge?

If the ice made it out of the Buffalo River last night then it’s on its way over today.   Tomorrow morning will also be interesting as we look at have a short window of WSW winds gusting over 50mph which will very likely cause the lake level to rise above the height of the boom and we could see a violent ice flow exit the lake into the upper Niagara River for a few hours.  

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty strong clipper for tomorrow with lake enhancement

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Yeah has a nice look.  Planning to setup for a few hours tomorrow morning either along the lake or Niagara River.  Looks like a nasty squall line could roll through to start and then a couple hour window of 50+mph gusts.  Not sure if it’ll be enough to create an “ice tsunami” but only one way to find out! 

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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Yeah has a nice look.  Planning to setup for a few hours tomorrow morning either along the lake or Niagara River.  Looks like a nasty squall line could roll through to start and then a couple hour window of 50+mph gusts.  Not sure if it’ll be enough to create an “ice tsunami” but only one way to find out! 

Should be a ton of blowing snow

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Our attention then turns to a rather potent clipper system, which
will move from the Upper Great Lakes this evening to the Ottawa
Valley by Saturday, with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern
Great Lakes early Saturday morning. The clipper cold front will
produce a burst of snow showers and possibly snow squalls with its
passage. The clipper cold front will become lake enhanced northeast
and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, producing a few inches of
accumulation across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region
late tonight and early Saturday.
Cold air will quickly deepen behind the cold front, with lake
induced equilibrium levels rising to around 10K feet over Lake
Ontario with favorably deep cold air and moisture. The latest model
guidance holds flow westerly over Lake Ontario for roughly 6 hours
on Saturday. Given the favorable thermodynamics and convergence down
the long axis of Lake Ontario, expect a band of heavy lake effect
snow to develop. The band will briefly cross Jefferson County
including Watertown in the morning, then focus on the central Tug
Hill from mid to late morning through late afternoon before moving
south across Oswego County and weakening by early evening. CIPS
analogs, pattern recognition, and high-res guidance suggests the
potential for warning criteria snow amounts on the Tug Hill
Saturday. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch for lake effect
snow has been issued east of Lake Ontario.

 


The clipper will also produce strong wind gusts Saturday. Winds will
peak near the cold frontal passage over and northeast of Lake Erie
Saturday morning, with gusts of 45+ knots possible. Forecast
soundings show enough wind aloft to potentially support a brief
period of low end warning criteria gusts across Western NY, but the
fact that the low begins to fill as it passes our longitude suggests
an advisory event. Regardless, it will be very windy and the
combination of a few inches of snow and strong winds will produce
extensive blowing snow. It will stay windy through the afternoon,
but gusts will come down to around 35 knots or so areawide.

 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NWS talking about issuing warnings I think there will be a brief timeframe of really heavy snow. 

So a short-lived potent lake band with arctic front pushing through with lots of wind. Should be a fun 2" or so. Hoping we can get some low-level 25:1 South Shore action after the front.

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