BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: All fantasy at this point but last night's euro looked solid with a Snow/mix synoptic event and some LES to boot..I'm feeling 1 good LES event before the month ends lol Really hoping that clipper overperforms. Would be nice to have 3-4" of new snow for hiking on Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's hard finding many people in society who aren't morons when it comes to understanding at least some of the science of meteorology. We weenies need our place. My wife and her co-teachers found a self-proclaimed weather guy who is a teacher in Binghamton on Facebook so now I have to explain to her all of the realities about what he is showing and/or talking about. A recent comment like “cold air tends to hang on more than is forecast” proved his foolishness right before the rain/snow line for a storm went a solid 50 miles NW of the forecast. I’m sure it applies in some places, but not here. He also showed a nice snowy map for late next week, but I told her that there are plenty of comparable maps showing us on the warm side so he is playing the Weather Channel (i.e. media) game of baiting people to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Next synoptic system to watch is probably D7/8 which is the same system the euro gave us some wintry precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that doesn't look nearly as good as a few years ago. Don't see any major flooding with that setup. Still A LOT of ice to come through. Red is current jam. Blue is ice free. Yellow has yet to start moving. Wait till it starts letting go upstream next 2-4 hours… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next synoptic system to watch is probably D7/8 which is the same system the euro gave us some wintry precipitation.. As noted before, the HP over north Ontario could make a big difference this go around. It’s funny, with the models being as good as they are, the real exciting part to watch is 120 hours out. A different game than just a few years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Saturday clipper.. Saturday, models continue to be in good agreement with a strong shortwave and associated low passing across our region. While the low will be filling, there will be a strong wind field with this low, such that with cold air advection behind the front the increased mixing heights will allow for gusts to at least 40 mph across much of the region through the day. This cold front, passing across the region midday, will also produce a burst of snow though accumulations will be minor with just an inch or two. Though amounts will be minor, the quick burst of snow with lowering visibilities could impact travel early Saturday. Temperatures peaking ahead of the front will likely fall through the afternoon hours. There will be a brief window for lake effect snow Saturday Night as the temperatures at 850 hPa plummet to the low negative teens Celsius. Moisture and convergence looks to be greatest downwind of Lake Ontario, though there will still be a fair amount of wind shear through the boundary layer. Areas across the southern Tug Hill and then southeast of Lake Ontario could receive several inches to possibly near advisory level snows Saturday Night. Surface high pressure will ridge across the Lakes later Saturday Night, ending the lake snows now to the south of the Lakes as winds become northerly. Still snowing after this frame.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Beautiful look. Hopefully it doesn't lead to suppression. Would love to have front hang up to our south with lows riding alongside. March tends to provide more moisture transport as well. The southern snowbelts should be in business soon. Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 GFS still showing quite a bit of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Surprised there isn't winter storm warning for Niagara county ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO9 AM EST FRIDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation and snow expected. Total snowaccumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of onetenth to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 GFS probably the most favorable on the backside of this system.. Probably a glitch just to my east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 The storm on Tues/Weds looks warm. Unlikely to get anything from that. The next few after that all have potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Right in the edge of 4-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Right in the edge of 4-6” Still think you are best positioned to get surprised. GFS perturbed members are laughably all over the place. Even at this final hour… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The storm on Tues/Weds looks warm. Unlikely to get anything from that. The next few after that all have potential. Yeah the follow up event on the GFS is a Miller B type system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, winter_rules said: My wife and her co-teachers found a self-proclaimed weather guy who is a teacher in Binghamton on Facebook so now I have to explain to her all of the realities about what he is showing and/or talking about. A recent comment like “cold air tends to hang on more than is forecast” proved his foolishness right before the rain/snow line for a storm went a solid 50 miles NW of the forecast. I’m sure it applies in some places, but not here. He also showed a nice snowy map for late next week, but I told her that there are plenty of comparable maps showing us on the warm side so he is playing the Weather Channel (i.e. media) game of baiting people to pay attention. Ha! Thanks for sharing. He sounds a big Joe Bastardi-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah the follow up event on the GFS is a Miller B type system.. Can probably expect multiple Miller Bs last week of Feb/first week of March with that high to the north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Can Binghamton, Albany, and Syracuse just have a snowstorm where we don't suck this season? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Bigger jam looks to be locking in just before the Stevenson Street bridge. Have this massive tree on top of the flow I’m using to judge travel distance and only seeing the flow moving about 100 yards so far. Level is rising at a good clip right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Please. We might be able to do a late run to catch up to the past 2 weak winters! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 A bunch of flood warnings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Bigger jam looks to be locking in just before the Stevenson Street bridge. Have this massive tree on top of the flow I’m using to judge travel distance and only seeing the flow moving about 100 yards so far. Level is rising at a good clip right now. How long does battery last on the gopro? Mine dies after a few hours. I used it for a tough mudder race and died 2/3 through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 I'm a bit surprised by how much the snowpack is holding on here. Must be all the refreezes and sleet mixed in there. Places under heavy tree canopies (pines) or those south facing slopes/open areas are grass but pretty much everywhere else is a solid several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Yeah, same here.. Still holding on to something lol Tonight is the real test with temps climbing into the mid 50s and heavy rain.. I have only recorded 0.06" of liquid so far today with temps in the mid-upper 40s, DPs also in the mid 40s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Everything is gone here besides piles and we had 3-4" of SWE in the snow here. Had a ton of rain, has to be over an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How long does battery last on the gopro? Mine dies after a few hours. I used it for a tough mudder race and died 2/3 through it. I set it to time lapse once before and just left it alone overnight recorded like 6 hours before it died but it was on a super cold day as well. Just happened to roll down for a check and times it perfect the first jam broke while I was on the bridge, was a pretty intense ice flow for about 15 minutes and now it’s flowing free. There is still another jam in place from Southgate Plaza in West Seneca back to Lydecker Road bridge so we may see another one setup later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Surprised there isn't winter storm warning for Niagara county ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO9 AM EST FRIDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation and snow expected. Total snowaccumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of onetenth to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Good call BUF. Looks like Orleans is included. Soooo close. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Got more video to sift through later but this one was probably the best with the trees smashing into the bridge deck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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