SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: @SouthBuffaloSteve Where do you go to monitor the ice jams? I live two streets over from Stevenson Street Bridge so that's my usual post. Planning to zip tie my go pro to the fence 50 yards up stream and time lapse the jam form under the bridge. Took a drive an hour ago and not seeing any rise yet just a low flow on top of the ice sheet but nothings moving. Charts showing a very slow flow increase but this is largely remaining below the current ice sheet without issue. My fear is a lot of the water content from the snow melt is not reaching the ground layer water table yet. Caz rises fast, responding withing 4-6 hours of precip and runoff, but saw almost no flinch all day despite peak melt conditions. Thinking is current pack continues to maintain an extremely dense water content that is not working into the ground. Just went to Target in OP and the fields along Milestrip were lakes! Possible ground layer is still frozen over and water is just stuck and not reaching the watersheds yet? Add a rapid melt of that bottom layer tomorrow with 2" of rain and were talking a flash flood situation. This could lead to a very violent ice flow if the entire content is all released at the same time. I'll be chasing the ice flow down stream throughout the day. Will have to do some recon in the morning but looking to start in West Seneca at Lydecker and move from there. Gotta shuttle the kids here and there through out the day but no work until Monday so planning to chase the jam until it reaches the lake on Firday. Buffalo Creek in West Seneca could also see some action as well. Until the ice starts moving can't really tell. I found a nice map that shows the areas covered by the creek system in WNY. The other factor in jamming is the race on which creek can hit the Buffalo River main branch first. If Buffalo and Cayuga Creek can dump into the River first and clog it up Caz has a major issue draining as it makes a perpendicular entry into the main branch. If Caz can hit the River first it doesn't seem to jam as bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 @lakeeffectkid383 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: @lakeeffectkid383 Who is this “snowking” asshole? Pretty self indulgent name if I do say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Who is this “snowking” asshole? Pretty self indulgent name if I do say so Well every city’s gotta have its king right? Also nothing wrong with bragging when you are in fact #1 in the snow department… you just Salty… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Would be nice lol Couple runs in a row with a big LES event in the LR behind one of these waves.. Obviously to far out right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Lol. All hail the king! I knew him before he was famous. We’ve got a lake effect king from Cazenovia and a Buffalo snowking but no king from rochester?!? I sense an opening here. Seriously though, you guys have some great video. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 I want to be the ice king. Still mad about season 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I want to be the ice king. Still mad about season 8 Right?!? Worst ending ever. So many strings left untied. Jon Snow literally hid behind a rock for an hour, after having died for What?!?!?! So frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Right?!? Worst ending ever. So many strings left untied. Jon Snow literally hid behind a rock for an hour, after having died for What?!?!?! So frustrating. I’ve read the books and watched entire show twice. Season 8 ruined the best show ever made. If you liked got watch the Witcher, Vikings, and the last kingdom. All similar and really good shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Hope Missaugua keeps us informed! Looks like a Toronto special. Good luck buddy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Well every city’s gotta have its king right? Also nothing wrong with bragging when you are in fact #1 in the snow department… you just Salty… lol Hey, look at that. Role of SnowlessKing goes to.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Hope Missaugua keeps us informed! Looks like a Toronto special. Good luck buddy! Great winter for them! Based on several next weeks, could be a record season for them? Didn't look it up, but perhaps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 On latest runs, it looks like the front isn't going to move far enough south in time for mid next week. Meh. Hopefully by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Looks like WWA starts around 5pm for NIA. Assuming that's when temps dip below freezing? Time to break out those correlation coefficient loops to see what really happens. Still hoping for a surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 6Z GFS looks decent for BUF and maybe to ROC. It even manages a couple/few inches into the SizzleCuse. Down to 3-4" of snowpack.. but the mild air feels good this a.m. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 6Z GFS looks decent for BUF and maybe to ROC. It even manages a couple/few inches into the SizzleCuse. Down to 3-4" of snowpack.. but the mild air feels good this a.m. KBUF mentions, finally, IF the cold air moves in faster Then Niagara And Orleans counties could achieve warning criteria snows, which would in turn bump up the counties just to the south, more northern Erie and genesee counties to 4-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 I love the weather but you guys are on an entirely different level. Impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I love the weather but you guys are on an entirely different level. Impressive. It's hard finding many people in society who aren't morons when it comes to understanding at least some of the science of meteorology. We weenies need our place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 As far as snow amounts go, there will be a very sharp drop off in snow amounts with the southern edge of heavier snow bisecting the northern portion of the CWA. Expect 4-7" of snow across Niagara and Orleans counties and possibly far northern Jefferson County as well. If precipitation changes to all snow fast enough, low end warning amounts of over 7" cannot be ruled out in this area. The next row of counties south, including Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe may see 2-4" of snow, with less than 2" from the interior Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes and counties southeast of Lake Ontario. The southern edge of heavier snow amounts will be very sensitive to the position and timing of the front, but the past few model runs have been fairly consistent. For ice amounts, expect 0.10"-0.20" across much of Western NY and the North Country, less than 0.10" from the interior Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario. Precipitation rates will be quite heavy during the freezing rain, so there will likely be more QPF falling as freezing rain than these numbers. High precipitation rates in freezing rain results in very inefficient conversion to ice, with a large amount of runoff. Winds... SSW winds will continue to be quite gusty today, with gusts of 30-40 mph common across the area. Wind gusts will diminish with the passage of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. There will be a brief surge of stronger northerly winds overnight behind the front as colder air rushes back into the region, and this will bring gusts of 25-35 mph areawide and 40+mph along the south shore of Lake Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I live two streets over from Stevenson Street Bridge so that's my usual post. Planning to zip tie my go pro to the fence 50 yards up stream and time lapse the jam form under the bridge. Took a drive an hour ago and not seeing any rise yet just a low flow on top of the ice sheet but nothings moving. Charts showing a very slow flow increase but this is largely remaining below the current ice sheet without issue. My fear is a lot of the water content from the snow melt is not reaching the ground layer water table yet. Caz rises fast, responding withing 4-6 hours of precip and runoff, but saw almost no flinch all day despite peak melt conditions. Thinking is current pack continues to maintain an extremely dense water content that is not working into the ground. Just went to Target in OP and the fields along Milestrip were lakes! Possible ground layer is still frozen over and water is just stuck and not reaching the watersheds yet? Add a rapid melt of that bottom layer tomorrow with 2" of rain and were talking a flash flood situation. This could lead to a very violent ice flow if the entire content is all released at the same time. I'll be chasing the ice flow down stream throughout the day. Will have to do some recon in the morning but looking to start in West Seneca at Lydecker and move from there. Gotta shuttle the kids here and there through out the day but no work until Monday so planning to chase the jam until it reaches the lake on Firday. Buffalo Creek in West Seneca could also see some action as well. Until the ice starts moving can't really tell. I found a nice map that shows the areas covered by the creek system in WNY. The other factor in jamming is the race on which creek can hit the Buffalo River main branch first. If Buffalo and Cayuga Creek can dump into the River first and clog it up Caz has a major issue draining as it makes a perpendicular entry into the main branch. If Caz can hit the River first it doesn't seem to jam as bad. Keep us updated, working today until 4. If it looks good after work may head up. Looks like temps go below freezing between 5-7 across Erie County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Beautiful look. Hopefully it doesn't lead to suppression. Would love to have front hang up to our south with lows riding alongside. March tends to provide more moisture transport as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Just as NWS gets more excited, I’m getting less. The 6z runs (other than GFS) we’re very unimpressive. Even Toronto looks as it may suffer from lack of precip. Long range looks fantastic! ‘Winters over’ crowd will have to take a powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Just as NWS gets more excited, I’m getting less. The 6z runs (other than GFS) we’re very unimpressive. Even Toronto looks as it may suffer from lack of precip. Long range looks fantastic! ‘Winters over’ crowd will have to take a powder. Yeah it appears the GFS is pretty amps with the second wave. IF right then it could be a good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Down to 45 in Williamsville…a bit early? Guidance was in the low 50’s until noon or so. I’m guessing due to the rate of rain puling down colder air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Currently one jam in place in Caz park. Is starting to flood over into the park. Ice under Stevenson still has not moved yet. Up stream in West Seneca is ice free from 90 overpass to SouthGate plaza but then looks to be a solid sheet again from there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Currently one jam in place in Caz park. Is starting to flood over into the park. Ice under Stevenson still has not moved yet. Up stream in West Seneca is ice free from 90 overpass to SouthGate plaza but then looks to be a solid sheet again from there. Yeah that doesn't look nearly as good as a few years ago. Don't see any major flooding with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Down to 45 in Williamsville…a bit early? Guidance was in the low 50’s until noon or so. I’m guessing due to the rate of rain puling down colder air? NAM has temps below freezing by around 6 for Buffalo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 All fantasy at this point but last night's euro looked solid with a Snow/mix synoptic event and some LES to boot..I'm feeling 1 good LES event before the month ends lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 NAM icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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