DeltaT13 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Glad I was able to go skiing last night. Season might be over. Agree. Just finished my annual three day trip at whiteface and conditions were pretty good but hanging on by a thread. Hard to really recover from numerous rain events over the next couple weeks. I got my fill. Im out. Haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Agree. Just finished my annual three day trip at whiteface and conditions were pretty good but hanging on by a thread. Hard to really recover from numerous rain events over the next couple weeks. I got my fill. Im out. Haha. I've been out 4 times so far, was hoping for 1-2 more. Need a decently sized storm to get the slopes looking good after the next 10 days of warmth/rain and refreeze. Slopes are going to be pure ice for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Some really good signals for a very active pattern after next weeks warmup. Winter isn't over and I think at least 1-2 more storms coming somewhere through Upstate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: This is almost all sleet. But that heavy snow just over the lake is beautiful. Lol 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: This looks fun next week lol A low over Syracuse and a low over Jamestown? You don't say................................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 @Thinksnow18 Talking to your favorite guy on facebook today. From Don Paul. A few of his thoughts "IMO, overdone. Sleet should dominate over freezing rain in most of WNY during transition to all snow after midnight, from NW to SE. I don't think the subfreezing layer gets shallow enough for prolonged freezing rain on the Niagara Frontier...maybe a few hours, but I think the GFS is somewhat too lengthy with the ZR. Very tight gradient between mod-hvy snow accum in northern Niag County and lighter amts to the S & SE. Poor model agreement at this time." HOWEVER ( with my tail between my legs), several 18z hi res models now move the front thru Buf a little faster and, with warm air aloft, now favor a somewhat lengthier period of sleet & frz rain ahead of snow. Not as much as that GFS run, but potentially significant in the evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: An inch of ice for you and me. Lol. I’ll take the under please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Fwiw 18z euro came SE a good bit. Puts BUF right on the line for respectable accumulations. Gonna be really close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Fwiw 18z euro came SE a good bit. Puts BUF right on the line for respectable accumulations. Gonna be really close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Tracks Pittsburgh to Lake Placid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Normally a decent track. If only there was some cold in Ontario…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Long Range GEFS shows the battle zone too. EPS/GEFS showing at least 2 weeks straight of overrunning potential with plenty of cold air close by. New England posters/mets are really high on the potential. Some of them are posting analogs for some of the best marches in history. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long Range GEFS shows the battle zone too. EPS/GEFS showing at least 2 weeks straight of overrunning potential with plenty of cold air close by. New England posters/mets are really high on the potential. Some of them are posting analogs for some of the best marches in history. it has a feb 2015 look to it. That feb was heavily dominated by the pacific with a piss poor atlantic and arctic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Think next threat to watch after clipper Saturday would be later next week in the thurs-sat period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: it has a feb 2015 look to it. That feb was heavily dominated by the pacific with a piss poor atlantic and arctic. That was Buffalos 3rd snowiest February. That was the month that gave Boston all those storms. I think we all did well in that month. Just coming a little later in the winter season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Might be able to float down the road tomorrow. Bet there will be some big time flooding in ice jam prone locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 @SouthBuffaloSteve Where do you go to monitor the ice jams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 NAM 3k coming in impressively colder. Might not be a done deal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 00z NAM with a sizable SE shift as well. Look at the cutoff over BUF. 00z top 18z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Gives me 3-4” verbatim while 30 miles to my north IAG sees 12” plus. Gonna be a crazy cut off somewhere. I’d feel a lot better if I was ThinkSnow18. I could see him getting 6-8” while I see 2” of snow and an inch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Gives me 3-4” verbatim while 30 miles to my north IAG sees 12” plus. Gonna be a crazy cut off somewhere. I’d feel a lot better if I was ThinkSnow18. I could see him getting 6-8” while I see 2” of snow and an inch of sleet. Not to mention this, all models now show over 1/2" of FZ for Erie county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not to mention this, all models now show over 1/2" of FZ for Erie county. What are the FRAM maps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 My attention has turned to the clipper/enhancement..lol Nam looks solid for a few/several inches of snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: What are the FRAM maps like? Looks like a FZ sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like a FZ sounding? No, the FRAM maps. They are the best for freezing rain accrual. They take into consideration precip rate, wind speed, and wet bulb temp. While the ones on pivotal are just a straight how much qpf falls as zr, which won’t all accrual and will be less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: No, the FRAM maps. They are the best for freezing rain accrual. They take into consideration precip rate, wind speed, and wet bulb temp. While the ones on pivotal are just a straight how much qpf falls as zr, which won’t all accrual and will be less. I've never heard of those maps. Its been forever since a good ice storm around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've never heard of those maps. Its been forever since a good ice storm around here. Let me see if I can find a site that shows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've never heard of those maps. Its been forever since a good ice storm around here. Here is some literature about them https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/woc/winter/fcst-hzds/ice-storm-accum/presentation_content/external_files/Ice Reference v1.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 52 with some really gusty winds outside right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Whew, the Nam 3k and several of the Mesos are showing a possible advisory-level snow for the Lake Ontario southshore from Bville westward to Rochester on Friday. It's getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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