TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 The wind picked up the slightest southerly component in Saharasizzlecuse and the temp jumped 7 degrees between 7 and 8. Let the torch begin in the furnace of New York state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I'm starting to get cautiously optimistic about my chances for a good snow event in Toronto. Hoping Buffalo and Niagara, at least, can get in on the action as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm starting to get cautiously optimistic about my chances for a good snow event in Toronto. Hoping Buffalo and Niagara, at least, can get in on the action as well. I think all 3 are looking good. Enjoy! I will get in on the action too...by watching webcams. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The wind picked up the slightest southerly component in Saharasizzlecuse and the temp jumped 7 degrees between 7 and 8. Let the torch begin in the furnace of New York state. 45 degrees at KBUF, think we make it to mid/high 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Quite a few of the models now showing decent ice storm for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 45 degrees at KBUF, think we make it to mid/high 50s. Geesh, the Lake Plains are incredible at how quickly they warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Geesh, the Lake Plains are incredible at how quickly they warm up. It’s like a quasi Chinook wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Geesh, the Lake Plains are incredible at how quickly they warm up. Buffalo is perfectly located for some of the strongest wind events in lower elevation locations. Its like a funnel up the lake and gets amplified. Another reason why I like it here. Now that my fence is fixed I'm back on the wind train. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It’s like a quasi Chinook wind. For sure. Those hills to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ice storm? That’s the first real mention of it but it looks to be increasingly likely…IF that was correct…look out…would be 2006 all over except it would be ice doing us in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s the first real mention of it but it looks to be increasingly likely…IF that was correct…look out…would be 2006 all over except it would be ice doing us in We would need like 2-3" of ice to get the damage Oct 2006 had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 GFS has another storm to monitor next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 wonder if Buffalo goes with winter storm watch. I could see a 2-5" snow event with enough freezing rain to warrant it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 12z RGEM is looking more south at 27hr so far...ends up pretty similar to 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, vortmax said: 12z RGEM is looking more south at 27hr so far...ends up pretty similar to 6z. RGEM clicked NW. this is why the trend maps help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 EURO is sad. Lol. It was a huge outlier anyway. That’s why you go with consensus and NWS BUF. They truly know what they are doing. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: RGEM clicked NW. this is why the trend maps help. You have 00z and 06z there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 ICON has had a good fix on this for about 8 cycles. Toronto will be on the edge. Cottage country looks good (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: You have 00z and 06z there. 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: You have 00z and 06z there. Oops. Pivotal is out but not TT. Same thing though. Roc went from 2.6” at 6z to 2.1 at 12z. This is what happens when you puke out maps. Lol. Disappointing trends. If you can hear the Falls from your house, you might stand a chance. I just hope we don’t get ice. I can’t be without heat and tv. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Hirez GFS bombs Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Another run with over an inch of freezing rain over BUF and all of Erie county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Oh, yay. Heaviest rains over CNY. Saharasaturatedsizzlercuze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Not going with much freezing rain at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another run with over an inch of freezing rain over BUF and all of Erie county I have to imagine some winter storm watches go up for Erie and Niagara mid afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another run with over an inch of freezing rain over BUF and all of Erie county Maybe you’ll get it! The valleys south of Roc too. As Wolfie showed, NWS not buying it at all. Idk why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Flood watches issued this morning.. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm system will generate between an inch and two inches of rain over north-central New York, most of which will come from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination of the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause flooding along creeks and rivers. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Arws are counting sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Precipitation will change over from NW-SE Thursday night, following the progression of the front. Forecast soundings continue to suggest there will be a narrow band of sleet/freezing rain before it changes over to all snow. This is due to a shallow layer of colder (below freezing) air which will undercut warm air aloft. Expect any ice accumulation to be mainly on tree branches and elevated surfaces, with steady rain likely to run-off even if surface temperatures drop just below freezing. Most areas should only see light snow accumulations of an inch or two before snow tapers off Friday afternoon. The exception is near Niagara county and the North Country where several inches is possible depending on the timing of the changeover. There will be a sharp gradient with more significant snow accumulations possible just to the north of the forecast area. Winter Weather advisories may be needed for the freezing rain and possibly the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 GEM UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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