BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 GEFS went way SE compared to previous runs. The OP is NW outlier. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS went way SE compared to previous runs Can you post the mean? Or panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Can you post the mean? Or panels? Here is the mean. That's an 8.5" mean for KBUF at 1:10. Not sure how much of that is sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Here is 18z, thats a substantial shift SE. and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here is the mean. That's an 8.5" mean for KBUF at 1:10. Not sure how much of that is sleet. me thinks its counting a lot of it as sleet, but I'm sure there is some snow involved too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 About 100 mile shift SE since 12z runs on GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 fwiw, the weatherbell gefs snow map is like half that of what you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 UK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Lol...no matter how far the GEFS go, they'll still show the big fricken screw zone bulge of crapola that sticks up through CNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: It’s gonna take a lot for this to come together. But 50% are hits Here was the full spread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Man, that cutoff is sharp. Many of us could get a great storm if the front moves through just a bit faster and the low takes a bit more time. This is one that could lead to big surprises...especially our WNY friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Gefs for compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 We can throttle the highs back 10 degrees for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Hells ya! Burn.it.all.down. probably underdone, we may get a 60 handle in here! Spring is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Heaviest axis now well within WNY. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 That’s a good look. Wind vectors a good indication of temp profiles. LP SE of Utica at 992. Warning event for far NW counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Including the post LES. Could be a snowy couple days in Orleans and Niagara counties with 20” totals. Not sold… lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Lots of sleet here but NAM 6z adjusts well south. AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Heaviest axis now well within WNY. Gonna be interesting. And KBUF not buying…not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Enjoy the rain everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Can only hope the HP/cold air pushes a bit harder than modeled. Could be a surprise in the making. Would love to see the forecast bust cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 06z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: Can only hope the HP/cold air pushes a bit harder than modeled. Could be a surprise in the making. Would love to see the forecast bust cold. Just 100 more miles SE and we would be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, tim123 said: 06z euro? bit warmer or I guess just not as snowy, even though I think those maps are overdone any ways. Roc was 3.6 at 0z and went to 2.7 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Odd tombo. Cause I see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, tim123 said: Odd tombo. Cause I see this. Those maps are way more than what weatherbell has. Would assume counting sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Ice storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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