rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Ok, you two work on that and report back once it’s figured out. I need more models. Snowy ones please 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. You can see the entire orientation of the axis shifts to flatter on the 6z. Looks good to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. That's what I was thinking. Thanks for confirming. Very similar setup to Groundhog's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: That's what I was thinking. Thanks for confirming. Very similar setup to Groundhog's day. When the ratios where 4 to 1 lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Hopefully the GFS starts heading in that direction of it being more of a cold front, with the wave developing and moving ENE after the front passes through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: When the ratios where 4 to 1 lmao. You're still going on about that??? lol Enter Syrmax to throw some shade... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 fwiw, the ggem the last 31 days is 2nd best scoring model behind the euro. Ukmet 3rd and gfs 4th. Doesn't mean anything going forward as past performances don't dictate future ones. Something to note though. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. Looking at H5, the confluence looks a bit nw/slower as well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Looking at H5, the confluence looks a bit nw/slower as well though. Yea that’s true, could be a wash. Doesn’t look worse. The fact that the eps at 6z improves told me it may of been better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: fwiw, the ggem the last 31 days is 2nd best scoring model behind the euro. Ukmet 3rd and gfs 4th. Doesn't mean anything going forward as past performances don't dictate future ones. Something to note though. Interesting considering these seem to waffle more than gfs. But maybe that just means gfs is stubborn when it gets a idea and corrected last min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: fwiw, the ggem the last 31 days is 2nd best scoring model behind the euro. Ukmet 3rd and gfs 4th. Doesn't mean anything going forward as past performances don't dictate future ones. Something to note though. Euro still king by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro still king by a long shot. Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Interesting considering these seem to waffle more than gfs. But maybe that just means gfs is stubborn when it gets a idea and corrected last min The gfs has not been that good as of late. Look back at the last 3 snow events in the east, it generally was last on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro still king by a long shot. Sure is. Doesn’t feel like it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 NAM is north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 The diffrence between gfs and euro cmc is like 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM is north NAM always amped in its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM is north Nam at 84 hours why do we even look at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam at 84 hours why do we even look at that. Does it look wonky? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Does it look wonky? Lol Take the farthest nw solution and it follows it and then some. Always plays catch up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: NAM always amped in its long range. Yes I know. But the model battle is fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 New England just got 6-10" of snow when 1-2" was forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 NAM stands for "Notoriously Amped, Mofos" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Lake erie looks like its 80 percent ice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yes I know. But the model battle is fun. Fun? Fun!?! More like PITA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lake erie looks like its 80 percent ice now. And Buffalo will still get more Lake Effect snow than Syracuse over the next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 ICON looks amped. Not looking good right now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Some"modest" lake effect expected tonight into tomorrow.. Tonight, the Lake Ontario lake effect will continue to shift north with the westerly wind shift. A passing trough, and convergent flow this evening should strengthen the lake effect along the south shore of Lake Ontario as winds start to shift out of the south over land, but continue out of the west to northwest over the lake. Winds over Lake Ontario will continue to shift more out of the west, and the lake snows will continue to push north into the late evening, becoming better organized directly over the lake. Winds will briefly shift to the west-southwest over Lake Ontario, causing the band to center over northern Oswego and southern Jefferson County through around daybreak on Tuesday. Snowfall amounts from NE Wayne County to Oswego County will generally be in the range of 2 to 5 inches through daybreak on Tuesday, with any additional confidence today with snow amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for a few of the counties along the southeast shore of Lake Ontario for tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures tonight will be in the single digits to low teens south of Lake Ontario, and in the low single digits to a few degrees below 0 for the North Country. Lake effect snow will linger east and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning. Favoring high res guidance, particularly the RGEM, in handling this convergence band driven lake effect snow. Expecting an additional 1-3 inches which will focus near Oswego County before winds shift to the northwest Tuesday afternoon and push the band southward. This could bring an inch or so southeast of the lake Tuesday afternoon before winds diminish and cause the snow to end by Tuesday evening. Off Lake Erie, expect about an inch focused across the Boston Hills before snow ends there Tuesday afternoon. Outside of the lake snows, Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 rgem a good bit more amped, still on colder side, but would think ggem comes in nw of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: rgem a good bit more amped, still on colder side, but would think ggem comes in nw of 0z Looks like 06z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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