rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 RGEM definitely more like Canadian. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 NAM is like the GFS though. Man, hate that GFS isn’t with us. Ugh. Hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAM is like the GFS though. Man, hate that GFS isn’t with us. Ugh. Hard to bet against it. With the last big event, the GFS was quite a bit too far south and then adjusted north closer to the Canadian. Perhaps it adjusts to the south this time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS showing temps near 70 next week If this year keeps with the theme of the past 5, we'll have a sudden surge of springlike weather in late February and early March, followed by a cold April and May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I’d expect one or the other camp to fall in line today. It’s a tough call but I’m a fan of ICON and it’s hard to bet against GFS in this range. But it could go either way. Tim might be right, Rain followed by a couple/ few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’d expect one or the other camp to fall in line today. It’s a tough call but I’m a fan of ICON and it’s hard to bet against GFS in this range. But it could go either way. Tim might be right, Rain followed by a couple/ few inches. You get some lake snow overnight. Looks like I picked up a inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 06z cmc holds with snow idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: 06z cmc holds with snow idea. Where do you see the 6z CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 6z eps added a few more SE solutions to the spread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Where do you see the 6z CMC? https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z eps added a few more SE solutions to the spread. It’s either weak and SE or a big storm and NW. one or two amped SE solutions but not many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: If this year keeps with the theme of the past 5, we'll have a sudden surge of springlike weather in late February and early March, followed by a cold April and May. I "like" this post and agree you may be correct but I can't "like" it because I hate it! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Operational 06z euro looks like rain to snow. Only goes to hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Looks beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Yeah. 6z EURO Looks like a nice hit for WNY. We’ll know at 12z. I think. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks beautiful Sure does! It would turn what looked like an ugly week to quite a snowy one for the Cuse. WNW lake effect snow off and on tonight and tomorrow...brief rain on Thursday changing to moderate to heavy snow...and then what looks like a clipper coming over the weekend. It would probably end up being one of the snowiest weeks of the winter here. If only it came to fruition... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, tim123 said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html thats not the 6z ggem, thats 0z. It says it at the bottom of the page. It goes 6z untill hr 48, then jumps to 0z ggem after 48hrs Only place I know where 6z ggem is on meteocentre 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, tim123 said: Operational 06z euro looks like rain to snow. Only goes to hour 90 Does it look like it would be further SE than the 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 26 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks beautiful Theres no such thing as a 18z or 6z CMC/GEM. If you go to the bottom hover over hours 48 and 49. As soon as it turns to 49 it goes back to the Oz run. Wolfie explained this to me once and I got it right away. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Theres no such thing as a 18z or 6z CMC/GEM. If you go to the bottom hover over hours 48 and 49. As soon as it turns to 49 it goes back to the Oz run. Wolfie explained this to me once and I got it right away. not sure if this is the 84 hr rgem, or legit ggem, but it says 6z ggem here https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=06&mode=latest&map=na&mod=cmc_gdps&lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 This is the 6z CMC. Look at bottom (hour 49) Its the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: not sure if this is the 84 hr rgem, or legit ggem, but it says 6z ggem here https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=06&mode=latest&map=na&mod=cmc_gdps&lang=en Pretty sure thats the RGEM. But the CMC animated model is definitely not a 6z run of CMC as evident from the bottom time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty sure thats the RGEM. But the CMC animated model is definitely not a 6z run of CMC as evident from the bottom time stamp. Yea I know the gem collaboration wasn't 6z ggem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yea I know the gem collaboration wasn't 6z ggem. Actually that link you posted I haven't used in awhile. That shows CMC-GDPS. The RGEM is the CMC-RDPS I believe. I guess we can match up both runs and compare to see if they're different model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty sure thats the RGEM. But the CMC animated model is definitely not a 6z run of CMC as evident from the bottom time stamp. I actually think that might be 6z ggem. if you compare the two, they aren't the same the 6z rgem and 6z ggem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: I actually think that might be 6z ggem. if you compare the two, they aren't the same the 6z rgem and 6z ggem Only goes out to hour 84h? Similar to 6z euro at 90h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Does it look like it would be further SE than the 0Z? Looks about same as 0z just a bit slower 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 On the top left you can see 3 various CMC runs. That is definitely not the RGEM. The CMC-GDPS, CMC-RDPS, and CMC-HRDPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Only goes out to hour 84h? Similar to 6z euro at 90h yup, which makes me always think is it the rgem? But if you compare the two (rgem and ggem) on that site esp out further in time, they don't match up, they are different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Looks about same as 0z just a bit slower I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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