rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. Really demonstrates your areas struggles. I’m still sitting on 7”. Huge mounds of iceberg snow. No bare spots. This was today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Really demonstrates your areas struggles. I’m still sitting on 7”. Huge mounds of iceberg snow. No bare spots. This was today Impressive. I wonder whats left when I get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 8-10" left here. But it has more to do with the recent pattern then climo. That big storm a few weeks back had loads of sleet in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I like that 10-15 day look on eps. Not bitterly cold but not warm. Very gradient look to it and active. Tpv placement and where western trough sets up and it’s orientation will determine where that gradient sets up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 They still ain't buying it... HWO BUF: On Thursday a storm system is forecast to track across or just to our west of the region. This may bring a warm weather resulting in snow melt and a half inch to inch of rainfall. There is a potentialf for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a combination of both. Strong gusty winds are also possible. This far off there remains considerable uncertainty in the track of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 40 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. With being further west and closer to the lake, I have had a bit more than you. I have 4 to 5 inches left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: They still ain't buying it... HWO BUF: On Thursday a storm system is forecast to track across or just to our west of the region. This may bring a warm weather resulting in snow melt and a half inch to inch of rainfall. There is a potentialf for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a combination of both. Strong gusty winds are also possible. This far off there remains considerable uncertainty in the track of this system. They love forecasting storms moving west. If this was going to be a snowstorm they wouldn't even have a hwo out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Eps looks like scattershot for end of the week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, vortmax said: They still ain't buying it... HWO BUF: On Thursday a storm system is forecast to track across or just to our west of the region. This may bring a warm weather resulting in snow melt and a half inch to inch of rainfall. There is a potentialf for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a combination of both. Strong gusty winds are also possible. This far off there remains considerable uncertainty in the track of this system. That’s from 5 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Pretty stout precip for lake effect on euro. That would be 4 to 6 inches tonight into tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Locally, guidance is starting to look a little better for Monday/Tuesday, wonder if the NWS will start to change their tune a little lol Looks like they did just that.. Monday night into Tuesday, and pinned between two areas of high pressure, a lake aggregate trough sets up stretching from Lake Superior southeast over Lake Ontario. This will allow a fairly strong convergent flow to set up down the long axis of Lake Ontario with the possibility for accumulating lake effect snows across far northern Cayuga, western Oswego and southwestern Jefferson counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Off Lake Erie... While there is significant ice cover on the lake as a whole, most of the open water is at the northeast end over the deep water west of Chautauqua County. There is likely more than enough open water and thin ice to support a lake response. The best setup will occur this evening when westerly flow aligns beneath the shallow inversion. This should allow for a band of lake effect snow to develop over southern Erie and western Wyoming counties, including some of the more distant Buffalo Southtowns. This is primarily based on pattern recognition, most of the high-res model guidance is likely under- forecasting this potential due to the impacts of observed ice cover on model physics. The band of snow will weaken and drift south into far southern Erie and western Chautauqua counties overnight as boundary layer flow weakens and becomes more sheared. Sunday expect snow showers to focus close to the lakeshore of Chautauqua and far southern Erie counties in very weak flow. As far as accumulations go, expect 3-5" across portions of Southern Erie County this afternoon through tonight, and 2-3" across western Chautauqua County. The forecast snow is falling over too long of a time period to reach advisory criteria. That said, if the band starts to organize better than expected this evening headlines may be required. Ice cover on Lake Erie is a wildcard late in the season, and wind today may be moving the ice and altering the location and size of open water areas. Looks like its setting up on WSW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 BGM is hilarious. The models are trending further SE and snowier for the end of the week, yet they made temps higher and reduced snow chances. I noticed the weekend crew there tends to do this though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 52 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Eps looks like scattershot for end of the week Several decent hits. Some look like two separate systems??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Looks like BUF did the exact same thing for N. Cayuga to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 P&C slashed overnight totals for Rochester. Looks more like a westerly wind event now as opposed to a northerly flow I was hoping on. The usual suspects get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: P&C slashed overnight totals for Rochester. Looks more like a westerly wind event now as opposed to a northerly flow I was hoping on. The usual suspects get hit. They change these every 20 min. Always was a wnw to nw flow. They always do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 That's definitely not westerly lol Has a N/NW look to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Surely looks to be WSW. IMG_4921.MOV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Give it till tonight, see what happens.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Surely looks to be WSW. IMG_4921.MOV Thats because a secondary trough is going thru 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 looks like 9-10" of cement here otg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 18z GFS keeps with the cutter idea. Hard to bet against it. Something better give soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Not at all what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 hours ago, CNY_WX said: My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. About 6" of avg snowdepth here still though we've lost over 1/2 of it in the past few days. Looks like most of the rest of it will be gone other than snowpiles over the next week. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: BGM is hilarious. The models are trending further SE and snowier for the end of the week, yet they made temps higher and reduced snow chances. I noticed the weekend crew there tends to do this though. I'm at 56" of total snowfall for the season and it's looking like we will struggle to reach even 70" at this rate, unless we nickel and dime our way there over the next month. Which is what i suspect happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 This is what the snowpack looked like in my neighborhood this afternoon. IMG_1223.MP4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: 18z GFS keeps with the cutter idea. Hard to bet against it. Something better give soon. It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Leelee said: It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today. Absolutely not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, Leelee said: It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today. Maybe. 200 miles in 100 hours is not unusual. But yeah, getting tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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