Geez150 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: GFS and Euro remain stubborn. Rain…slowly running out of time. Hate to say it, but we are already out of time. To me once we lost our cold winter is over. With everything being water logged and mud now, to me a snow storm would be salt in the wound. I do hope we have some cold and snow on the ground for Maple Weekend...It just hurts when winter leaves as quickly as it came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Rgem hits this area up pretty good late Monday into Tuesday but the NWS doesn't seem to enthused due to the lack of moisture.. A weak trough tracking across the region Monday night, along with a wind shift to the southwest to west over the longer fetch of the lakes will help reinvigorate the lake response northeast of Lake Erie with SW winds, and east of Lake Ontario with westerly winds. The better fetch over the lakes should result in better organized single bands off of both lakes, but there is still a notable lack in synoptic moisture, limiting snowfall to an inch or less for these areas. Weak warm air advection with the shifting winds will cause nighttime lows on Monday night to occur earlier in the overnight, with slow warming through the night, especially for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I thought we were finally done melting snow as much as temps dropped into the 30s...but nope, popped back up into the 40s in this stupid sauna of a city. 12Z model runs also now show lake effect snow avoiding us too. Winter in the Cuse rolls on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Lake snow looks kinda robust on meso models. Niagara to Oswego 4 to 10 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nothing to force the storm further south. We are going to go into a ln awful pattern for the foreseeable future. Well there is that 1035 Mb high that could push it further SE. It's still 5-6 days out, going to see quite a bit of changes between now and then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I thought we were finally done melting snow as much as temps dropped into the 30s...but nope, popped back up into the 40s in this stupid sauna of a city. 12Z model runs also now show lake effect snow avoiding us too. Winter in the Cuse rolls on... It got down to 34 here last night but jumped up to 42 this morning. Had a narrow line of showers move through between 9:00 and 9:30 with about a 2 minutes burst of grauple. It’s sunny here now but cold air advection she start soon. Temperatures in Western New York are already below freezing. Edit: should start soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I'm in Queens and could legitimately wear shorts right now and probably right around 60°. By the time I get home tonight should be back into the teens yet here has the better chance at snow. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Icon shows a ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Another 100 miles SE and we have a snowstorm. GFS is close. Toronto with a big hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Can see the high pressure was quicker in sliding it further SE this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It got down to 34 here last night but jumped up to 42 this morning. Had a narrow line of showers move through between 9:00 and 9:30 with about a 2 minutes burst of grauple. It’s sunny here now but cold air advection she start soon. Temperatures in Western New York are already below freezing. Edit: should start soon. The cutter at the end of the week will be our first real one of the season. I have mixed feelings about what I hope for after that. Kind of tired of playing the "hit or mostly miss" game this winter has brought. I would love a few solid snowstorms in March, but not if we're treading the line like we have so often the past several years with almost every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another 100 miles SE and we have a snowstorm. GFS is close. Toronto with a big hit. Enjoy your snowstorm in Buffalo. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The cutter at the end of the week will be our first real one of the season. I have mixed feelings about what I hope for after that. Kind of tired of playing the "hit or mostly miss" game this winter has brought. I would love a few solid snowstorms in March, but not if we're treading the line like we have so often the past several years with almost every event. Except the big storms like 1993, most snowstorms you're treading the line. Even that big one in Boston last week south of Boston got 30"+ but north of Boston only got 12". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Except the big storms like 1993, most snowstorms you're treading the line. Even that big one in Boston last week south of Boston got 30"+ but north of Boston only got 12". Yup, and we've been on the piss-poor side way too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Geesh, Euro has Southern New England getting to near 70 at the end of the week! That would break records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can see the high pressure was quicker in sliding it further SE this run We need the NE lobe of that HP to slide over and shunt the storm. As it is doing these last few runs. I think we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 CMC is going to be another odd run. Snowy I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Couple decent hits on GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Several good ones in there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: We need the NE lobe of that HP to slide over and shunt the storm. As it is doing these last few runs. I think we get it. 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: CMC is going to be another odd run. Snowy I think Thanks for pointing out some of the possible positive outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 For WNY, more good hits than not. Beware the cold bias. But I think that HP wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: CMC is going to be another odd run. Snowy I think GEM barely has a storm, that high destroys it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GEM barely has a storm, that high destroys it. More like a CF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 I'll be up in ADK next weekend (hiking) and March 4-6 (skiing). So hoping for a more wintry trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Canadian is MEH lol Pretty much a frontal passage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Damn you boys are quick today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Whiteface hasn't done terrible this year SNOWFALL PAST 24 HRS:3 in LAST 7 DAYS:9 in BASE DEPTH:34 - 51 in SEASON TOTAL:123 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 You can see some weak surface reflections on the Canadian but the front just keeps moving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 I think @DeltaT13 is up there this weekend looks like perfect conditions https://whiteface.com/mountain/webcams/#tab-whiteface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Locally, guidance is starting to look a little better for Monday/Tuesday, wonder if the NWS will start to change their tune a little lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now